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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 9, 2020 10:27:01 GMT -6
I gotta say it is so darn frustrating to see a storm start to pull together in our wheelhouse only to explode and lift N. Reminiscent to the Merry Muddy Christmas though not quite as extreme. Maybe I'm grasping at straws at this point but I still think there's a chance that it doesn't lift as far N/NW as models show...it all depends on how quickly the shortwave becomes negatively tilted...we want that to happen towards the AR border and not over the panhandle. It is a very thin margin between basically nothing and heavy, accumulating snowfall. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 9, 2020 10:29:26 GMT -6
I gotta say it is so darn frustrating to see a storm start to pull together in our wheelhouse only to explode and lift N. Reminiscent to the Merry Muddy Christmas though not quite as extreme. Maybe I'm grasping at straws at this point but I still think there's a chance that it doesn't lift as far N/NW as models show...it all depends on how quickly the shortwave becomes negatively tilted...we want that to happen towards the AR border and not over the panhandle. It is a very thin margin between basically nothing and heavy, accumulating snowfall. Honestly you probably are and that's ok, we've all been there several times already this winter alone lol. I do think something is brewing late next week and into that weekend. I'm sure it will because my wife's baby shower is on Sunday 01/19. |
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Post by msnotos on Jan 9, 2020 10:41:18 GMT -6
Without snowcover, i cant imagine below 0 temps and i cant imagine that the cold will last for any period of time before we get back to normal or above. It has been a wild and crazy ride this year. I'd agree, the amount of snow we received late in the fall season is rare. Now in January, it's been warmer. |
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Post by snowday_lover on Jan 9, 2020 10:44:33 GMT -6
Without snowcover, i cant imagine below 0 temps and i cant imagine that the cold will last for any period of time before we get back to normal or above. It has been a wild and crazy ride this year. I'd agree, the amount of snow we received late in the fall season is rare. Now in January, it's been warmer. Don't forget about us bottom counties that only received a TRACE of snowfall this past time, whereas most of you received several inches. I NEED snow! |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 9, 2020 10:45:20 GMT -6
I gotta say it is so darn frustrating to see a storm start to pull together in our wheelhouse only to explode and lift N. Reminiscent to the Merry Muddy Christmas though not quite as extreme. Maybe I'm grasping at straws at this point but I still think there's a chance that it doesn't lift as far N/NW as models show...it all depends on how quickly the shortwave becomes negatively tilted...we want that to happen towards the AR border and not over the panhandle. It is a very thin margin between basically nothing and heavy, accumulating snowfall. I do not disagree with you |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 9, 2020 10:46:04 GMT -6
I gotta say it is so darn frustrating to see a storm start to pull together in our wheelhouse only to explode and lift N. Reminiscent to the Merry Muddy Christmas though not quite as extreme. Maybe I'm grasping at straws at this point but I still think there's a chance that it doesn't lift as far N/NW as models show...it all depends on how quickly the shortwave becomes negatively tilted...we want that to happen towards the AR border and not over the panhandle. It is a very thin margin between basically nothing and heavy, accumulating snowfall. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 9, 2020 10:47:37 GMT -6
Maybe I'm grasping at straws at this point but I still think there's a chance that it doesn't lift as far N/NW as models show...it all depends on how quickly the shortwave becomes negatively tilted...we want that to happen towards the AR border and not over the panhandle. It is a very thin margin between basically nothing and heavy, accumulating snowfall. Honestly you probably are and that's ok, we've all been there several times already this winter alone lol. I do think something is brewing late next week and into that weekend. I'm sure it will because my wife's baby shower is on Sunday 01/19. We'll see. If the surface ridge was further east towards the lakes we'd be talking about a possibly historic winter storm and instead we're talking about several inches of rain with a little backside snow...sucks. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 9, 2020 11:09:31 GMT -6
12z ukmet is solid for parts of the viewing are.
Really hoping it wins
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 9, 2020 11:12:13 GMT -6
Ukmet vs the world at this point
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 9, 2020 11:18:11 GMT -6
06z euro has an enhanced deformation band impacting the area similar to the ukie. The big question is will the cold air be here in time for snow/ice?  |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 9, 2020 11:35:58 GMT -6
Moderate risk issued in the latest Day 2 outlook
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 9, 2020 11:36:50 GMT -6
1st Moderate Risk outlook of the season has gone up for northern Louisiana and far northeastern Texas. We remain well within the marginal risk area. Looks like damaging winds and tornadoes are the main threat especially in the moderate risk zone where some big twisters are possible.
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Jeke
Junior Forecaster
Old Jamestown, MO
Posts: 320 
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Post by Jeke on Jan 9, 2020 11:42:53 GMT -6
06z euro has an enhanced deformation band impacting the area similar to the ukie. The big question is will the cold air be here in time for snow/ice? Easy with the ice word. Ice cost me 3 cracked ribs on December 17th. Was on the ground before I knew what happened. It was, however, a stupid move on my part because I knew the small patch was there and walked right into it. |
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 9, 2020 12:32:51 GMT -6
is the gfs trying to develop 2 sfc lows here or is this feed back?? i.imgur.com/n4EMxNb.pngI'm referring to the frontal "lobe" developing in western MO Looks like an inverted trof in response to the upper level divergence. The multiple centers further east are probably due to convective feedback... TROWAL -Trough of Warm Air Aloft maybe? That's an inverted trough. |
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Post by mchafin on Jan 9, 2020 12:43:36 GMT -6
Ukmet vs the world at this point what does it show? where can I see it? |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 9, 2020 12:45:29 GMT -6
Ukmet vs the world at this point what does it show? where can I see it? Weather.us has it along with the euro. 12z euro remains amped. No bueno |
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 9, 2020 12:51:23 GMT -6
So I happen to be looking at the GFDL's 0Z 3km GFS run just now mainly for the severe weather down south and noticed that it brings a healthy amount of frozen precipitation down to I-44.
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 9, 2020 13:04:18 GMT -6
Maybe there has been, but I can't remember a smaller day 2 SPC moderate area ever being issued. I'm not sure yet how I feel about these "watch-sized" outlook areas and I don't know exactly how the SPC does their verification scores. If the moderate area ends up with a high enough report density to verify but outside there was an even high density count do you consider the moderate risk to have verified? I think technically you do, but it feels wrong...
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 9, 2020 13:09:34 GMT -6
I’m not a big fan of these “miniaturized” outlook areas either. Seems to almost defeat the purpose of an outlook area when it gets that localized. If the SPC feels confident enough to make it that’s precise more power to them
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Post by jeepers on Jan 9, 2020 13:58:49 GMT -6
I have to leave midday Sat to drive my kid back to college. What do the odds look/wild guess that we’ll actually see anything frozen fri night?
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 9, 2020 14:03:50 GMT -6
I have to leave midday Sat to drive my kid back to college. What do the odds look/wild guess that we’ll actually see anything frozen fri night? Really no risk of anything frozen around here until mid-day Saturday...what direction are you travelling? |
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Post by jeepers on Jan 9, 2020 14:31:17 GMT -6
East, driving to Bloomington, IN via I70
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 9, 2020 14:49:57 GMT -6
SREF still has mean just over 2" of nice, wet, warm liquid.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 9, 2020 15:07:59 GMT -6
Could be interesting to see if the intense convection has any influence on the formation of the low level low as the trough goes negative. Models seem to be having a bit of a hard time exactly where it will form. Maybe suffering from convective feedback.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 9, 2020 15:08:29 GMT -6
SREF still has mean just over 2" of nice, wet, warm liquid. The mean for snow is .02. LOL |
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Post by tedrick65 on Jan 9, 2020 15:17:28 GMT -6
I have to leave midday Sat to drive my kid back to college. What do the odds look/wild guess that we’ll actually see anything frozen fri night? I have to take mine back to Kirksville on Sunday. That could be interesting. |
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Post by dschreib on Jan 9, 2020 15:46:28 GMT -6
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 9, 2020 15:48:40 GMT -6
18z gfs is 👍
Hope it’s the start of a trend
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 9, 2020 15:51:17 GMT -6
thumbs up for chicago? Sure
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 9, 2020 15:56:08 GMT -6
thumbs up for chicago? Sure No, it’s flatter and gets the deformation zone over the metro. It kind of jumps the heavy QPF, but that might just be noise. It looks closer to the ukmet conceptually |
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