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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 9, 2020 16:04:03 GMT -6
Meh, the whole thing is noise, this one's over for here. Maybe a few ending flakes.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 9, 2020 16:12:23 GMT -6
Well the latest gfs change just started imteresting me a bit as if that continues I may need to put equipment on the trucks
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 9, 2020 16:37:03 GMT -6
GFS holding on to the pattern for next week as well. Seems like we're headed into a pattern with multiple chances for wintry weather as the southern stream dukes it out with the arctic.
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Post by RyanD on Jan 9, 2020 16:43:08 GMT -6
NWS has my forecast high on Wed at 50! Then mid 30's Thursday. Have a feeling that's going to change drastically downward in the coming days. Early next week though looks balmy. Even if we were to get some snow Saturday it'll be gone before the big cold arrives midweek.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 9, 2020 16:45:08 GMT -6
Im concerned about flooding.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 9, 2020 16:50:22 GMT -6
And the euro continues to show no super cold at all here, cooler, normal January cold. No real storminess, except maybe a bit more rain.
Though I will take the GFS blizzard on Jan 22 lol
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Post by mchafin on Jan 9, 2020 16:51:45 GMT -6
GFS holding on to the pattern for next week as well. Seems like we're headed into a pattern with multiple chances for wintry weather as the southern stream dukes it out with the arctic. Yes..plenty of opportunities for what appears to be wintry chances dwindling to nothing or rainers. Got it. Meh. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 9, 2020 16:52:34 GMT -6
Im concerned about flooding. You’ll probably be able to fill a lot of Beakers |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 9, 2020 16:56:28 GMT -6
18z gfs is basically the dream over the next 2 weeks.
Epic cold, epic snow, rinse repeat.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 9, 2020 16:57:22 GMT -6
The 18z GFS is probably one of the most epic runs I have ever seen. If only it would come true!
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Post by RyanD on Jan 9, 2020 16:57:22 GMT -6
-EPO would favor an arctic intrusion east of the Rockies which is why I'm siding with the GFS and the GFS has been awfully consistent with bringing the Arctic hammer. Hopefully the Euro is wrong. GFS has to be right eventually. Lol
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 9, 2020 17:02:30 GMT -6
Euro ensembles are pretty cold after 7 days. Arctic air looks like it coming. Just a matter of when and if moisture will accompany it
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 9, 2020 17:03:24 GMT -6
is the gfs trying to develop 2 sfc lows here or is this feed back?? i.imgur.com/n4EMxNb.pngI'm referring to the frontal "lobe" developing in western MO Check out hours 45 and 48 on the 18Z GFS run. Same effect except maybe more pronounced even. Pretty weird.  |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 9, 2020 17:09:06 GMT -6
Big jump east in the 18z GFS ensembles. Will be interesting to see what the 18z euro shows
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gonefishin - WashMO
Junior Forecaster
Washington, Franklin County, MO
Posts: 491 
Snowfall Events: 2013-2014: A lot!
2014-2015: If you forecast it, it will come!
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Post by gonefishin - WashMO on Jan 9, 2020 17:10:08 GMT -6
So...are we inching our way back into the game?
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 9, 2020 17:10:22 GMT -6
is the gfs trying to develop 2 sfc lows here or is this feed back?? i.imgur.com/n4EMxNb.pngI'm referring to the frontal "lobe" developing in western MO Check out hours 45 and 48 on the 18Z GFS run. Same effect except maybe more pronounced even. Pretty weird. Models are showing some odd stuff trying to form that low with all the deep convection taking place |
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 9, 2020 17:10:58 GMT -6
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 9, 2020 17:18:18 GMT -6
I don't think convective feedback can explain that because CAPEs aren't that high up this way and because the convective QPF product isn't anything to bat an eye at by any means. I looks like it might be driven more by an induced response from the UL pattern. Either way it still looks weird and might be influencing the sensible weather output down at the surface. Afterall, that is WAA occurring in a very atypical way.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 9, 2020 17:19:49 GMT -6
Been watching that one all week. It gets stronger and better looking every run. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 9, 2020 17:33:42 GMT -6
12z GEFS had the metro at a 30% chance of atleast an inch of snow
18z GEFS has the metro at a 90% chance
Could just be a blip but interesting nonetheless
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 9, 2020 18:07:39 GMT -6
GFS brings sub-500dm thickness into the region around D13...pretty chilly, lol.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 9, 2020 18:08:07 GMT -6
Again, could just be noise, but the 18z euro is slightly further east with the accumulating snow. Brings it into the immediate metro
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Post by landscaper on Jan 9, 2020 18:18:35 GMT -6
I like the slight trends , it would be awesome to even get an inch or two.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 9, 2020 18:20:25 GMT -6
I just need to know put plows and salters on tomorrow or not. We have 34 trucks and its a pain last minute. Is there any chance at all of plowable snow in st.louis metro.
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Post by RyanD on Jan 9, 2020 18:26:27 GMT -6
Lots of thunder and lightning here already.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 9, 2020 18:28:38 GMT -6
I don’t think it will be a plow storm, definitely a chance to salt, even with just light snow there will likely be some flash freezing from all the rain/puddles/run off. What company do you work for ?
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 9, 2020 18:31:00 GMT -6
Lots of thunder and lightning here already. Lots of CG strikes here |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jan 9, 2020 18:35:37 GMT -6
Lots of thunder and lightning here already. I can see some flashes and definitely hear it from up this way. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 9, 2020 18:41:54 GMT -6
I thght i heard thunder even out in my area....and wsc...im going to need bigger beakers.
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 9, 2020 18:43:39 GMT -6
hrrr already dumping 1-3" of rain before 11am tomorrow morning. ya'll are gunna need a bigger boat.
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