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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 9, 2020 18:48:07 GMT -6
pouring here, no thunder or lightning as of yet
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 9, 2020 18:50:01 GMT -6
Just curiois cause our plows.drop at 1 inch on the ground we are pushing
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 9, 2020 18:52:10 GMT -6
Im not sure abt that gfs...both short and long term. The front has slowed down prolonging rainfall...not much sensibly different than 4 inches vs 6 inches of rain. Its just going to be bad and the rain now continues into much of saturday during the day. I think i wld want to see how nam handles this tonight b4 i start believing in bringing snow to metro. However mci may get a major snow out of this, and they could get alot more than current forecasts. I am confident with 4 to 6 inches of rain for us though. As for next week, i am going to stick with the king until we see how this storm impacts the overall pattern. However that might bode well for some weak pockets of energy to slide through if timing is right.
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gonefishin - WashMO
Junior Forecaster
Washington, Franklin County, MO
Posts: 491 
Snowfall Events: 2013-2014: A lot!
2014-2015: If you forecast it, it will come!
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Post by gonefishin - WashMO on Jan 9, 2020 18:53:06 GMT -6
Pouring with thunder in Pacific, MO.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 9, 2020 18:53:50 GMT -6
Just curiois cause our plows.drop at 1 inch on the ground we are pushing You probably won't need plows, but keep up to date on the system the next few days. These quicky deeping lows can do some weird things |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 9, 2020 18:54:59 GMT -6
I was kind of amazed at how efficient the rain seemed to be this morning. I had some good downpours going in to work and the lift wasnt all that much. Thats why im thinking we may get more rain than going forecasts.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 9, 2020 19:10:13 GMT -6
18z euro ensembles say the metro has a 0.0% chance for atleast an inch of snow
just slightly different from the 18z GEFS
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 9, 2020 19:29:23 GMT -6
18z euro ensembles say the metro has a 0.0% chance for atleast an inch of snow just slightly different from the 18z GEFS I just don't know which way to go with this one...some of the model runs have been showing a decent track of the 500mb vort max but the 850mb low track has definitely trended NW with such a strong surge of WAA...the SE ridge is no joke but neither is the 1035mb+ ridge across the Upper Midwest...I just wish we could have gotten that ridge a bit further E and the lead N stream wave less sheared and it would be a much different story. You have to figure the deformation is going to swipe the NW half of the CWA at least...but a lot comes down to cyclical mesoscale bands that may or not make it here so it's a tough call. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 9, 2020 19:40:11 GMT -6
Maybe there has been, but I can't remember a smaller day 2 SPC moderate area ever being issued. I'm not sure yet how I feel about these "watch-sized" outlook areas and I don't know exactly how the SPC does their verification scores. If the moderate area ends up with a high enough report density to verify but outside there was an even high density count do you consider the moderate risk to have verified? I think technically you do, but it feels wrong... I remember a similarly sized one a couple years back maybe...that's an awfully small area to pinpoint at this range, IMO...might as well expand it to cover their bases. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 9, 2020 19:40:50 GMT -6
East, driving to Bloomington, IN via I70 You should be good...have a safe trip! |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 9, 2020 19:41:16 GMT -6
Already at 0.5” in Arnold
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Post by jeepers on Jan 9, 2020 19:59:56 GMT -6
East, driving to Bloomington, IN via I70 You should be good...have a safe trip! Really appreciate it, thanks! |
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 9, 2020 20:12:02 GMT -6
Only light mist in st.peters. seems like we will miss lots of the rain
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campingfamily
Weather Weenie
Birdie Hills and Knaust Rd St. Peters, MO
Posts: 54 
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Post by campingfamily on Jan 9, 2020 20:15:42 GMT -6
Are the clouds below Mt. St.Peters? Steady rain at the Rec Plex.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 9, 2020 20:25:15 GMT -6
Getting some good showers in far north St. Peters, too. No thunder, though
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Post by red12 Hillsboro,mo on Jan 9, 2020 20:27:28 GMT -6
Already at 0.5” in Arnold Meramec river in Arnold is already forecasted to rise to 30.8 feet probably go higher though |
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 9, 2020 20:27:40 GMT -6
The troll is angry lol.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 9, 2020 20:29:53 GMT -6
00z nam is weaker and flatter.
Brushes areas north of 70 with some wintry precipitation, but nothing too special
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 9, 2020 20:36:58 GMT -6
00z NAM sounding near Dallas tomorrow evening. That turning of the wind. Yikes  |
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Post by Jeffmw on Jan 9, 2020 21:05:07 GMT -6
Who wants to watch Waterworld?
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 9, 2020 21:48:05 GMT -6
GFS for the Win!
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 9, 2020 21:54:54 GMT -6
Hard not to like that run. Good for a couple inches for western and northern counties |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 9, 2020 21:59:12 GMT -6
GFS is a good run, It would be nice to see the GEFS and EURO shift the snow southeast a little.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 9, 2020 22:08:27 GMT -6
GFS is about as good as we can hope for right now
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 9, 2020 22:12:17 GMT -6
Highly unlikley but I guess stranger things have happened. This is the upside down after all.
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Post by mchafin on Jan 9, 2020 22:13:43 GMT -6
Highly unlikley but I guess stranger things have happened. This is the upside down after all. What is highly unlikely? |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 9, 2020 22:18:29 GMT -6
00z gfs maintains major artic blast starting Wednesday night
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 9, 2020 22:19:41 GMT -6
Conceptually the GFS fits the pattern the best in my opinion with that 1036 HP, flatter solution, less amped at 1000mb LP. I think it’s possible it could verify. Just gotta watch out for that nosey warm wedge often underestimated and also take into account a bit less snow since the FV3 does have a colder bias.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 9, 2020 22:26:35 GMT -6
I never really look at them, but The WRF ARW and ARW2 sure look good. Clearly the cold south East outliner.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 9, 2020 22:26:48 GMT -6
Gfs says we get another shot at all of this in a week too...
Only this time the high is stronger and further east, so a slamming ensues
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