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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 9, 2020 22:27:31 GMT -6
Gfs continues to show a nasty overrunning situation late next week. This of course is assuming the arctic blast is strong enough and doesn’t recede too much.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 9, 2020 22:27:49 GMT -6
Highly unlikley but I guess stranger things have happened. This is the upside down after all. What is highly unlikely? The gfs solution. |
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Post by mchafin on Jan 9, 2020 22:29:26 GMT -6
explain why it's highly unlikely please. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 9, 2020 22:29:44 GMT -6
Unfortunately it then warms above freezing. That would be dumb.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 9, 2020 22:33:38 GMT -6
The EURO has really struggled this past year especially in the 3-7 day window. I agree the GFS and Ukmet fit the past pattern more. If the neutral/negative trough slides 50 mi more to the east this will be a much different story than what is forecasted now. Just glad we are wasting tons of moisture in the form of rain instead of snow during the second week of Jan...not haha!
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 9, 2020 22:43:14 GMT -6
Unfortunately it then warms above freezing. That would be dumb. It then brings more subzero cold lol. It is clearly sold on a fun pattern. Now we need the euro to join the fun |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 9, 2020 22:47:51 GMT -6
00z gefs ensemble mean in the 2-4 inch range for snow Saturday night across the metro
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 9, 2020 22:49:29 GMT -6
The GFS camp is about to miserably embarrass itself or outplay the euro
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Post by mchafin on Jan 9, 2020 22:51:00 GMT -6
00z gefs ensemble mean in the 2-4 inch range for snow Saturday night across the metro well there you go! see? we're saving money already. we're a good team! Sorry -- Just leaped into my Dell Griffith inpersonation. |
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Post by mchafin on Jan 9, 2020 22:51:51 GMT -6
The GFS camp is about to miserably embarrass itself or outplay the euro I mean...the Euro hasn't really been king this winter, right? |
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 9, 2020 22:53:49 GMT -6
The GFS camp is about to miserably embarrass itself or outplay the euro I mean...the Euro hasn't really been king this winter, right? Right the Euro has been bad in the med-long range. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 9, 2020 23:10:38 GMT -6
00z ukmet looks good.
Parts of the western and northern metro would see a few inches of snow.
It’s the euro’s turn to trend southeast and weaker
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 9, 2020 23:11:20 GMT -6
if it's any consolation, that's been the trend with the NAM.
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Post by dmbstl on Jan 9, 2020 23:17:37 GMT -6
Already at .9 at 11pm in mid county.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 9, 2020 23:29:07 GMT -6
Concerning that many areas around 44 will likely 1+ inches tonight, I'm around .8 as of now. Really going to have a saturated ground going into tomorrow nights deluge.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 9, 2020 23:35:02 GMT -6
Already over an inch in Arnold. Gauge reads 1.20"
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 10, 2020 0:03:29 GMT -6
Euro is definitely weaker and further SE this run
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 10, 2020 0:07:57 GMT -6
and the euro folds... impressive.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 10, 2020 0:09:45 GMT -6
Yeah stl could squeak out an inch on the euro. Maybe 2 in Union..3 or so in Warren county on west.
4-6 inches of rain from franklin county into IL.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 10, 2020 0:33:00 GMT -6
Much large moderate risk issued by the SPC in the latest update
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 10, 2020 0:37:36 GMT -6
Yeah, that mod risk area is more reasonable IMO
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 10, 2020 0:55:00 GMT -6
Euro is not buying the big arctic outbreak, at all.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 10, 2020 1:13:31 GMT -6
I mean holy hell. The euro and GFS couldn't be much more different on day 10. Euro has huge ridge building right over the middle of the country with very mild temps, while the GFS has huge arctic invasion taking control.
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 10, 2020 1:32:09 GMT -6
GEM is in the GFS camp fwiw.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 10, 2020 2:32:20 GMT -6
The biggest difference I see in the 500mb ensemble mean charts from Euro to GFS is that the Euro cuts off the upper ridge of Alaska and actually tucks a large chunk of cold air/upper low underneath the ridge and pulls that low west. It actually circulates the cold pool around the upper ridge. That seems to be a bit of a stretch. I have to to lean towards the GFS ensembles because they look more realistic. Fortunately, that is WAAAAY out there in the forecast and I have a lot to chew on before then anyway....like heavy rain, severe weather, ice and snow.
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 10, 2020 2:35:59 GMT -6
Chris what’s your thoughts on snow potential at the back side of this system? Thank you
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 10, 2020 3:07:28 GMT -6
Chris what’s your thoughts on snow potential at the back side of this system? Thank you I think there may be snow on the backside of the system  I haven't made it that far yet...but it will have to snow very hard to get any accumulation....that phase of the system is moving quickly too. I think it will be to realize much more than a sloppy dusting to maybe 1" from STL west through St. Charles County. Really going to be more of a nowcast thing. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 10, 2020 3:28:24 GMT -6
winter weather adv for franklin and Warren and lincoln on west from there midnight tonight to midnight sat. Hmm. Less than an inch of snow and sleet here.
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 10, 2020 4:42:20 GMT -6
Chris what’s your thoughts on snow potential at the back side of this system? Thank you I think there may be snow on the backside of the system I haven't made it that far yet...but it will have to snow very hard to get any accumulation....that phase of the system is moving quickly too. I think it will be to realize much more than a sloppy dusting to maybe 1" from STL west through St. Charles County. Really going to be more of a nowcast thing. Thank you that was kind of my thoughts as well. Ground is very warm but sleet can make that difference quickly. Seems like I won’t have to work this one......or at least a very few may need salt by Sunday morning. With temps warming into the 40’s on Sunday with sunshine everything else will melt if there is anything on it. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 10, 2020 5:57:07 GMT -6
First lightning and thunder of the event just now
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