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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 10, 2020 6:02:16 GMT -6
The next SPC update will expand the moderate risk even more, into central and east AR, west MS and ne LA
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Post by birddog on Jan 10, 2020 7:01:50 GMT -6
As of 7 am, 1" here.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 10, 2020 7:08:41 GMT -6
The squall line for overnight tonight looks pretty feisty up to STL. Wouldn't be surprised to see slight risk bumped north a bit due to wind concerns.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 10, 2020 7:09:44 GMT -6
Exactly 1 inch in st.peters so far
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Post by birddog on Jan 10, 2020 7:27:32 GMT -6
Nephew lives in Scottsdale, Mo, just sent pic of his rain gauge. 2.9"
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Post by scmhack on Jan 10, 2020 7:30:48 GMT -6
Whatever amount of rain that is, its enough for the roof to leak and get into my lab. Damnit.
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 10, 2020 8:06:22 GMT -6
I mean holy hell. The euro and GFS couldn't be much more different on day 10. Euro has huge ridge building right over the middle of the country with very mild temps, while the GFS has huge arctic invasion taking control. Probably signaling some kind of pattern change then if they have completely different solutions. |
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 10, 2020 8:06:55 GMT -6
I mean holy hell. The euro and GFS couldn't be much more different on day 10. Euro has huge ridge building right over the middle of the country with very mild temps, while the GFS has huge arctic invasion taking control. What are the teleconnection forecasts from the euro? |
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Post by dmbstl on Jan 10, 2020 8:11:03 GMT -6
1.6 in Maplewood at 8am.
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Jan 10, 2020 8:35:26 GMT -6
I mean holy hell. The euro and GFS couldn't be much more different on day 10. Euro has huge ridge building right over the middle of the country with very mild temps, while the GFS has huge arctic invasion taking control. Probably signaling some kind of pattern change then if they have completely different solutions. That’s a very good call out. I hadn’t thought of that aspect. Any algorithm will have issues when you change its pattern that it monitors. As a software engineer who loves AI modeling, I can’t wait to see true AI be used to build weather forecast vs “models” which by definition rely purely on history replaying itself. |
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Jan 10, 2020 8:55:46 GMT -6
We weren’t expecting as much rain last night and so far today were we?
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 10, 2020 9:17:24 GMT -6
12z hrrr still brings another 3-4" area wide with more just SE of here.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 10, 2020 9:19:41 GMT -6
The NAM just pounds Central Iowa up toward GB with a foot +
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 10, 2020 9:22:08 GMT -6
The squall line for overnight tonight looks pretty feisty up to STL. Wouldn't be surprised to see slight risk bumped north a bit due to wind concerns. Ya looks like the northern tip of the squall line should make it into the metro. Obviously it won’t have near the bite it will have down south but could still see some gusty winds |
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 10, 2020 9:22:59 GMT -6
I could use a 6-8 hour break in between rains here...
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 10, 2020 9:30:56 GMT -6
06z EURO dropped 2-4” right down 44 into the metro
Backside of this system still has some intrigue
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Post by landscaper on Jan 10, 2020 9:35:51 GMT -6
Hopefully the Euro is on to something, so far not much excitement on the models this morning except a lot of rain. I was hoping to see the nam and icon go alittle more southeast
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 10, 2020 9:40:32 GMT -6
Hopefully the Euro is on to something, so far not much excitement on the models this morning except a lot of rain. I was hoping to see the nam and icon go alittle more southeast Looks like our snow chances will ride on mesoscale banding that could form on the SE side of the deformation zone. Models have been hinting at this on and off but haven’t been consistent with it. |
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 10, 2020 9:44:11 GMT -6
It could just be a glitch in the matrix but the 12Z HRRR UH tracks in Missouri and specifically up I-44 are very robust.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 10, 2020 9:44:52 GMT -6
06z EURO dropped 2-4” right down 44 into the metro Backside of this system still has some intrigue It wasn't until inside of 20 hours where the last system (Dec 16) showed us getting hit pretty good. |
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 10, 2020 9:48:54 GMT -6
Some nice omega thru the DGZ... if it were only 30 degrees colder  |
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Post by amstilost on Jan 10, 2020 10:00:39 GMT -6
I have 1.125 6 miles west of De Soto. I certainly, really, really hope the models are over-precipitaing with the rainfall amounts. Unfortunately, 58* in the morning on 1/10/20, there is a lot of moisture holding capability. I just hope for a bust with this.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 10, 2020 10:01:14 GMT -6
12z GFS looks good, it shows that heavier band coming up I44 tomorrow late afternoon evening . It looks line we would be in for about a 4-6 hour period of frozen precipitation . Hopefully it snows enough to make everything white Sunday morning. It won’t last long
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 10, 2020 10:02:43 GMT -6
It could just be a glitch in the matrix but the 12Z HRRR UH tracks in Missouri and specifically up I-44 are very robust. It was swinging a couple thru central MO last night at 18z/00z. Definitely a lick of shear in the atmosphere, just need something to tap into it. Definitely think there could be a spinup or two |
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 10, 2020 10:06:34 GMT -6
Sun is peaking through a few areas where the clouds have thinned a bit.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 10, 2020 10:12:37 GMT -6
We are putting the plows on. Boss does not want to take a chance. This sun scares me as it would cause instability
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 10, 2020 10:14:54 GMT -6
We are putting the plows on. Boss does not want to take a chance. This sun scares me as it would cause instability Is it beating down on you like the Sahara? |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 10, 2020 10:21:43 GMT -6
12z gfs still gets cold Wednesday night, but is much more reasonable.
Then it has the same ice storm at the end of the week.
1041 mb high to block the storm, still a bit more west based then we like, but a dangerous setup nonetheless
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 10, 2020 10:22:04 GMT -6
Sun is peaking through a few areas where the clouds have thinned a bit. Was going to say the same thing. Always looks so much brighter against the gray, moisture laden clouds. Storm SW of Wichita looking possibly tornadic |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 10, 2020 10:30:32 GMT -6
I dont think we've had much overnight into this morning here in Troy, Mo. Maybe a flake or two. Whoops poor choice of words there.
I mean just a drop or two. Haha
All kidding aside we had a downpour or two. But nothing like folks south of me got. Don't have a rain gauge to give any totals.
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