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Post by cozpregon on Jan 10, 2020 10:34:46 GMT -6
12z gfs still gets cold Wednesday night, but is much more reasonable. Then it has the same ice storm at the end of the week. 1041 mb high to block the storm, still a bit more west based then we like, but a dangerous setup nonetheless This would be interesting with temps in the teens leading up to this
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 10, 2020 10:34:47 GMT -6
Late next week is definitely going to be interesting to watch unfold.
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 10, 2020 10:37:36 GMT -6
12z gfs still gets cold Wednesday night, but is much more reasonable. Then it has the same ice storm at the end of the week. 1041 mb high to block the storm, still a bit more west based then we like, but a dangerous setup nonetheless I was just getting ready to say something about next weekend. I think it will be moving a bit slower than as modeled on the GFS especially since the NAO is forecast to go slightly negative at that time as well. I also don’t see it going north as modeled either, but, since we are about 24 hours from the potential but unlikely frozen stuff this go around with model differences lingering, I have yet to bite on it. |
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 10, 2020 10:41:51 GMT -6
Development across OK looks cool  |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 10, 2020 10:42:50 GMT -6
Tornado warnings popping in OK.
Flood warning issued for Dardenne Creek
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twocat
Junior Forecaster
North St. Peters off Cave Springs
Posts: 390 
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Post by twocat on Jan 10, 2020 10:44:44 GMT -6
.95 according to the Davis on the roof in North St. Pete. It's also a miserable 59.5 degrees. Ugh.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 10, 2020 10:44:52 GMT -6
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 10, 2020 10:49:28 GMT -6
12z ukmet looks fantastic.
1-3 across much of the metro. 2-5 the further north and west you go across the area
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Post by mchafin on Jan 10, 2020 10:49:34 GMT -6
question for the weather nerds.
Should we be tracking in real time the movement of the surface low..is it going to go more east/south? What should we be paying attention to, for those of us hoping that we get a little bit of snow on the tail end?
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 10, 2020 10:51:05 GMT -6
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 10, 2020 10:57:17 GMT -6
Thursday/Friday looks legit right now. If that arctic air can remain entrenched throughout, you’d be looking at some serious icing followed by some snow. Glad to have one to watch.
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Post by dmbstl on Jan 10, 2020 10:58:55 GMT -6
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 10, 2020 10:59:29 GMT -6
12z ukmet looks fantastic. 1-3 across much of the metro. 2-5 the further north and west you go across the area Ukie has been really insistent on that solution. Models seem to be trending towards it |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 10, 2020 11:20:01 GMT -6
Some models say we repeat by end of next week, particularly with the track of the low pressure. But thats a storm system away and i dont know that the synoptic situation would be the same. My hunch is that se ridge is going to start to break down but trying to time that is hard without seeing what happens this weekend. We cld see a fast switch of temps back and forth if the ridge reasserts itself. My guess is that wld happen for a while before a sustained cold winter pattern takes hold and even then, we still have to get the timing down with any systems.
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 10, 2020 11:39:26 GMT -6
question for the weather nerds. Should we be tracking in real time the movement of the surface low..is it going to go more east/south? What should we be paying attention to, for those of us hoping that we get a little bit of snow on the tail end? Watch the radar.
It's tough to tell- the main snow will be with the 700 low from NW MO to WI... but 500 still has some energy moving thru late afternoon and can see a weak 850/925 low coming thru. Too subtle to follow really. GFS sounding looks good at 00z Sun... NAM dries it up a bit thru the snow zone.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 10, 2020 12:00:04 GMT -6
Euro coming in even further SE with the backside stuff
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 10, 2020 12:04:42 GMT -6
Euro is alittle further SE with the energy, still keeps the bulk of the accumulating snow just to the NW of the metro. Trend seems clear though
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gonefishin - WashMO
Junior Forecaster
Washington, Franklin County, MO
Posts: 491 
Snowfall Events: 2013-2014: A lot!
2014-2015: If you forecast it, it will come!
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Post by gonefishin - WashMO on Jan 10, 2020 12:09:26 GMT -6
Euro is alittle further SE with the energy, still keeps the bulk of the accumulating snow just to the NW of the metro. Trend seems clear though So where does this put areas like Franklin and Warren? |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 10, 2020 12:09:35 GMT -6
Euro is alittle further SE with the energy, still keeps the bulk of the accumulating snow just to the NW of the metro. Trend seems clear though The difference between yesterday’s 12z run and today’s for 12z Saturday is pretty glaring. 995 low in north central Arkansas vs. 1001 low in southeast Arkansas. |
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 10, 2020 12:14:48 GMT -6
Im glad i am putting plows on metro may be in for a.suprise
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Post by landscaper on Jan 10, 2020 12:17:52 GMT -6
What is it showing for the metro area? Accumulating?
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 10, 2020 12:22:25 GMT -6
it just shows a little less snow for most, but it's more widely spread out.
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modracer
Weather Intern
MASCOUTAH, Illinois
Posts: 835
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Post by modracer on Jan 10, 2020 12:32:36 GMT -6
We have a large car dealership, that any snow, basically 1/4"-1/2" we start, plows and chems are a go Just curiois cause our plows.drop at 1 inch on the ground we are pushing |
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 10, 2020 12:35:32 GMT -6
We have a large car dealership, that any snow, basically 1/4"-1/2" we start, plows and chems are a go Just curiois cause our plows.drop at 1 inch on the ground we are pushing Even if it doesn’t happen until after they close and closed on Sunday and it warms up on Sunday to melt it away? |
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Post by red12 Hillsboro,mo on Jan 10, 2020 12:48:46 GMT -6
Students move back in this weekend at SLU so I'm sure we will be coming in Sunday to salt.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 10, 2020 12:50:23 GMT -6
The first flake we are salting most of our.contracts are st.louis parking.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 10, 2020 13:08:45 GMT -6
Euro continues to have a whole lot of nothing other than seasonal temps and some rain next week. GFS is basically on its own with the winter system and cold at this point which isn't great.
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modracer
Weather Intern
MASCOUTAH, Illinois
Posts: 835
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Post by modracer on Jan 10, 2020 13:16:20 GMT -6
We have not had that perfect storm/scenario happen with them yet...lol But that's common sense, you don't screw the customer We have a large car dealership, that any snow, basically 1/4"-1/2" we start, plows and chems are a go Even if it doesn’t happen until after they close and closed on Sunday and it warms up on Sunday to melt it away? |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 10, 2020 13:17:41 GMT -6
18z HRRR looks feisty with the squall line tonight for the area
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Post by landscaper on Jan 10, 2020 13:31:00 GMT -6
The models really didn’t come around today like I hoped. There’s basically nothing showing more than a dusting except the UKMET and GFS , who knows , the low placement looks better on some but the outcome is not good
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