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Post by nascarfan999 on Jan 17, 2020 13:14:47 GMT -6
Temp 27 dropped 3 degrees in valley park what's falling? His credibility.   |
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Post by ElKay23 - Columbia, IL on Jan 17, 2020 13:19:34 GMT -6
starting to rain, glazing on elevated surfaces, but not on sidewalk
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Post by snowjunky on Jan 17, 2020 13:21:35 GMT -6
That clipper energy Monday has sneaky written all over it. The atmosphere is going to be very cold so it won't take much moisture to kick off some accumulating snow. Snow liquid ratios will be sky-high if anything falls  So is it too soon to move onto this? |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 17, 2020 13:21:52 GMT -6
Starting to look like more of a nuisance event for the most part...but a degree or two can make a huge difference with these systems. The warming this morning and warm droplets are making for poor accretion.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 17, 2020 13:22:10 GMT -6
Not having any sleet is going to save the roads IMO
A burst of snow and sleet earlier today would've chilled the roads and made them much more conducive for freezing rain to accrete
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 17, 2020 13:26:08 GMT -6
Nothing but cold rain in Villa Ridge.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 17, 2020 13:26:34 GMT -6
That clipper energy Monday has sneaky written all over it. The atmosphere is going to be very cold so it won't take much moisture to kick off some accumulating snow. Snow liquid ratios will be sky-high if anything falls So is it too soon to move onto this? Not much there on the models currently, but that's a good looking vort. Euro gets some snow going out by KC with it |
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Post by shrapnel - Arnold, MO on Jan 17, 2020 13:26:39 GMT -6
Moderate rain, lots of runoff 34* Winter threat over here. This was a razor thin forecast, close call and always better to err on the safe side! Hoping the rain totals stay down LOZ is already chocolate milk.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 17, 2020 13:26:50 GMT -6
I agree with Brtn , this is turning out to be a very minor event. The la ck of sleet or snow and delayed start has this basically a non road issue except elevated surfaces. It never ceases to amaze me how good a storm looks on the models only to turn into a giant turd.
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Post by red12 Hillsboro,mo on Jan 17, 2020 13:27:13 GMT -6
His credibility. What app is that? |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 17, 2020 13:29:01 GMT -6
I agree with Brtn , this is turning out to be a very minor event. The la ck of sleet or snow and delayed start has this basically a non road issue except elevated surfaces. It never ceases to amaze me how good a storm looks on the models only to turn into a giant turd. 9/10 these borderline icing events turn out to not be much. Ice is such a headache to forecast and rarely goes as the models predict |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 17, 2020 13:32:10 GMT -6
I agree with Brtn , this is turning out to be a very minor event. The la ck of sleet or snow and delayed start has this basically a non road issue except elevated surfaces. It never ceases to amaze me how good a storm looks on the models only to turn into a giant turd. Prototypical St. Louis storm...always riding that razor edge. |
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 17, 2020 13:32:16 GMT -6
I saw 27 on the truck mirrow when it just started. God i have to tae pics of everything. I was driving
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 17, 2020 13:32:58 GMT -6
I agree with Brtn , this is turning out to be a very minor event. The la ck of sleet or snow and delayed start has this basically a non road issue except elevated surfaces. It never ceases to amaze me how good a storm looks on the models only to turn into a giant turd. 9/10 these borderline icing events turn out to not be much. Ice is such a headache to forecast and rarely goes as the models predict A ton of models and runs showed this scenario. We are inclined to look for reasons the more interesting/extreme scenario will happen. It’s why the NWS approaches conservatively and without emotion. This outcome is hardly surprising or at odds with the model mosaic shown over the last 48 hours |
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Post by bear1 on Jan 17, 2020 13:34:17 GMT -6
Just took the trash out & my uncovered hand rails & porch steps are icy & slick & it's sleeting pretty good, temp holding at 30°
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 17, 2020 13:34:40 GMT -6
Here is the ice on one of the trucks in valley park  |
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Post by nascarfan999 on Jan 17, 2020 13:36:39 GMT -6
His credibility. What app is that? It's from Weather Underground's website. They have the most extensive collection of personal weather stations that I am aware of. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 17, 2020 13:37:26 GMT -6
9/10 these borderline icing events turn out to not be much. Ice is such a headache to forecast and rarely goes as the models predict A ton of models and runs showed this scenario. We are inclined to look for reasons the more interesting/extreme scenario will happen. It’s why the NWS approaches conservatively and without emotion. This outcome is hardly surprising or at odds with the model mosaic shown over the last 48 hours True, but I could also point to several models runs of the NAM/GFS/Euro that showed warning level amounts of sleet and freezing rain accumulation the last 2 days. One of those situations where a little sleet and earlier onset of freezing rain would've changed things for the worse |
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 17, 2020 13:38:42 GMT -6
Just Elevated or all surfaces? Just elevated. Sent one of the boys out to get mail and he said it wasn’t slippery at all. Sorry I didn’t clarify that earlier. No worries!! Thanks for the update!!! |
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Post by mosue56 on Jan 17, 2020 13:42:13 GMT -6
Angela is heading in to the station now! She said she’d let us know how the roads are on her FB page when she gets there!
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 17, 2020 13:45:33 GMT -6
How are things in central Mo unclesam?
Saw a storm report of power poles down and lines sagging from ice
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Post by grizzlebeard on Jan 17, 2020 13:46:25 GMT -6
Angela is heading in to the station now! She said she’d let us know how the roads are on her FB page when she gets there! According to the Total Traffic from stltoday.com, everything is basically at the speed limit with no accidents reported in STL. MODOT still show road conditions in the metro as "clear". Lots of my guys bugged out and took PTO to avoid the traffic later, but I am thinking there really won't be any. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 17, 2020 13:46:45 GMT -6
A ton of models and runs showed this scenario. We are inclined to look for reasons the more interesting/extreme scenario will happen. It’s why the NWS approaches conservatively and without emotion. This outcome is hardly surprising or at odds with the model mosaic shown over the last 48 hours True, but I could also point to several models runs of the NAM/GFS/Euro that showed warning level amounts of sleet and freezing rain accumulation the last 2 days. One of those situations where a little sleet and earlier onset of freezing rain would've changed things for the worse If this would have come in 6hrs earlier or overnight it would have been a completely different storm. Right now we're at peak insolation which is lowering accretion potential as well. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 17, 2020 13:48:47 GMT -6
True, but I could also point to several models runs of the NAM/GFS/Euro that showed warning level amounts of sleet and freezing rain accumulation the last 2 days. One of those situations where a little sleet and earlier onset of freezing rain would've changed things for the worse If this would have come in 6hrs earlier or overnight it would have been a completely different storm. Right now we're at peak insolation which is lowering accretion potential as well. I’m not discounting that there was potential. Just not ready for another round of model bashing when they showed this scenario as a median outcome |
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BDS
Wishcaster
Columbia, MO
Posts: 202 
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Post by BDS on Jan 17, 2020 13:51:33 GMT -6
How are things in central Mo unclesam? Saw a storm report of power poles down and lines sagging from ice Definitely have some good accretion. Wouldn't surprise me at all to see some power outages soon. Wind is starting to pick up and the trees are creaking. Eyeballing it I'd say we are approaching .2 in easily. Side roads/neighborhood roads are getting better slowly as the rain gets heavier. |
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padlur
Junior Forecaster
Ballwin(by the golf course)
Posts: 304
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Post by padlur on Jan 17, 2020 13:52:56 GMT -6
over an hour straight of freezing rain at this point but only minor accumulations on raised surfaces in even that doesn't stick very well.
Ballwin
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 17, 2020 13:52:58 GMT -6
Anything that has been treated is just wet. Untreated surfaces and elevated surfaces are slick and cars that have been parked outside are coated in ice.... But the pre treatment on the roads is doing the trick along with the forecast marginal temperatures.
I don't think I would change anything about how I approached the forecast with this and as a parent I would have no trouble if classes were canceled out of an abundance of caution today. These events have razor thin breakpoints that tip the scales one way or another. The lack of sleet and snow on the leading edge has made a world of difference in a positive way as did the break from the initial band and this main band. I have said it before and I will say it again, I am always learning from each event… but sometimes even the very best forecast still goes wrong. What will be wrong today will be the expected impact… the main message was that an icy mix would be transitioning to rain at some point in the day and that is exactly what is happening. Untreated surfaces are slick as snot. But without sleet to go with the freezing rain treated surfaces are doing just fine...that is where I thought some slush would build up.
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Post by tedrick65 on Jan 17, 2020 13:53:02 GMT -6
If this would have come in 6hrs earlier or overnight it would have been a completely different storm. Right now we're at peak insolation which is lowering accretion potential as well. I’m not discounting that there was potential. Just not ready for another round of model bashing when they showed this scenario as a median outcome Having the bulk of traffic off of the roads certainly helps the road crews. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 17, 2020 13:53:34 GMT -6
9/10 these borderline icing events turn out to not be much. Ice is such a headache to forecast and rarely goes as the models predict A ton of models and runs showed this scenario. We are inclined to look for reasons the more interesting/extreme scenario will happen. It’s why the NWS approaches conservatively and without emotion. This outcome is hardly surprising or at odds with the model mosaic shown over the last 48 hours This. |
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 17, 2020 13:59:46 GMT -6
What stinks about this storm is that we had cold here..... it warns and rains and then gets cold right after.... unreal how in January we can’t get precipitation and cold to sinc up and get even a coating of snow
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