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Post by maddogchief on Jan 17, 2020 14:07:38 GMT -6
I'm thinking the lull that we saw this morning helped to warm 2M/surface temps a bit and lower accretion potential but with wet bulbs still running in the mid/upper 20s we're still going to see elevated accretion at least for several hours. That was the difference no doubt. And what will make this a non-event in our area. Also, if you don’t want to feel physically ill don’t look at the teleconnections the last couple days. This winter is officially going down the pooper. I saw those. Positive EPO with a MJO in phase 7 says no winter to be found in the central Midwest. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 17, 2020 14:12:14 GMT -6
Mud
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 17, 2020 14:13:27 GMT -6
WSC is correct as well. Dry air is eating everything.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 17, 2020 14:13:28 GMT -6
More $*$&@ng@*^$>& %&#>%<=*' mud.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 17, 2020 14:16:01 GMT -6
That was the difference no doubt. And what will make this a non-event in our area. Also, if you don’t want to feel physically ill don’t look at the teleconnections the last couple days. This winter is officially going down the pooper. I saw those. Positive EPO with a MJO in phase 7 says no winter to be found in the central Midwest. Yea. "Ummmmm not great." Here's what's going to happen...when we are ready to do away with this crappy winter in March and April, the pattern will flip and it will stay cold enough to keep us from getting to enjoy a nice spring. Maybe at that point you cash in on a heavy March snow. |
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Post by jeffcobeeman on Jan 17, 2020 14:23:24 GMT -6
Nothing but cold rain in Villa Ridge. Wasnt that a famous Elvis song?
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lunchladyd
Junior Forecaster
On the Troy -Silex, Mo. line
Posts: 399 
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Post by lunchladyd on Jan 17, 2020 14:24:46 GMT -6
Just went out to check things out. Deck and elevated surfaces are iced over. Gravel driveway is also coated as well as the grass. It is crunchy when walked on. 28 degrees.
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 17, 2020 14:26:34 GMT -6
Eyeballing what's probably a quarter inch of ice on vegetation. It's enough to highlight tree branches from several hundred feet away. Very lucky the surface low got as far north as it did. This could have been a a very high impact storm in central MO.
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 17, 2020 14:26:48 GMT -6
I saw those. Positive EPO with a MJO in phase 7 says no winter to be found in the central Midwest. Yea. "Ummmmm not great." Here's what's going to happen...when we are ready to do away with this crappy winter in March and April, the pattern will flip and it will stay cold enough to keep us from getting to enjoy a nice spring. Maybe at that point you cash in on a heavy March snow. Eh, I don’t think it’ll take that long to correct itself. The warmer temps have really helped with heating bills. It should be in January we don’t have to worry about being on the right side of the storms. But, we all know that’s not the case. While the EPO is extremely positive the NAO has decided to tank. So, that “should” make storms move a bit slower and potentially getting us into the colder solutions. MJO argues for normal to slightly above, depending on which model guidance you use. CFS MJO argues we go into the icebox at the end of the month. The rest say we wobble back into phase 6, which correlates to colder temps in the Midwest. |
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 17, 2020 14:28:51 GMT -6
I would really like to see temps rise a bit more before sunset......setting steady at 30° for quite awhile now. Don’t want to have to go check lots again even though I’m confident they are fine since I put a double salt app on last night.
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lunchladyd
Junior Forecaster
On the Troy -Silex, Mo. line
Posts: 399
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Post by lunchladyd on Jan 17, 2020 14:36:52 GMT -6
Just went out to check things out. Deck and elevated surfaces are iced over. Gravel driveway is also coated as well as the grass. It is crunchy when walked on. 28 degrees. However the freezing rain is mixed with sleet. That might be why. |
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443 
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Post by mccarthb on Jan 17, 2020 14:42:04 GMT -6
What's the expectation through this evening? When should we expect temps to rise above freezing?
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Post by tedrick65 on Jan 17, 2020 14:42:37 GMT -6
What's the expectation through this evening? When should we expect temps to rise above freezing? Where are you located? |
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Jan 17, 2020 14:43:53 GMT -6
What's the expectation through this evening? When should we expect temps to rise above freezing? Where are you located? O'Fallon, MO |
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Post by tedrick65 on Jan 17, 2020 14:49:44 GMT -6
Consensus appears to be around 8:00 p.m. |
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Post by ScottMOfallon on Jan 17, 2020 14:53:24 GMT -6
I would really like to see temps rise a bit more before sunset......setting steady at 30° for quite awhile now. Don’t want to have to go check lots again even though I’m confident they are fine since I put a double salt app on last night. Pavement is mostly wet here in Warrenton. Elevated surfaces definetly iced over. |
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 17, 2020 14:58:19 GMT -6
Just checked outside and have ice on some trees and the deck.... also have about one to two inch ice cycles on the canopy over the hot tub.... roads are just wet.... temp is 31
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 17, 2020 15:00:39 GMT -6
mPing question: if the rain is freezing on elevated surfaces, but only on elevated surfaces do we report that a freezing rain or just rain? Sidewalks and grass are just wet with no icing.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 17, 2020 15:01:28 GMT -6
Freezing rain
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 17, 2020 15:02:36 GMT -6
How are things in central Mo unclesam? Saw a storm report of power poles down and lines sagging from ice Messy, but not impossible. Trees/power lines are sagging. We're about as close as you can get to a high-impact event. The warming saved us. |
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Jan 17, 2020 15:03:04 GMT -6
Pretty solid layer of ice on everything elevated now
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Post by landscaper on Jan 17, 2020 15:07:35 GMT -6
Temps around the area are 29-30 elevated surfaces are getting a nice coating . It’s still at or below freezing from Springfield Mo to west of Columbia. It’s going to take awhile before we go above freezing. Once the sun sets any left over freezing rain might accumulate quicker . Only to melt and be washed away later tonight
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lunchladyd
Junior Forecaster
On the Troy -Silex, Mo. line
Posts: 399
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Post by lunchladyd on Jan 17, 2020 15:13:04 GMT -6
Mads streets in her subdivision are wet and icey.
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lunchladyd
Junior Forecaster
On the Troy -Silex, Mo. line
Posts: 399
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Post by lunchladyd on Jan 17, 2020 15:13:32 GMT -6
Mads streets in her subdivision are wet and icey. She lives in Troy. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 17, 2020 15:13:47 GMT -6
Pretty good glaze on elevated surfaces in Belleville. Temp holding at 30*
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Post by mchafin on Jan 17, 2020 15:35:09 GMT -6
deck is glazed over. streets appear to be ok though.
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Jan 17, 2020 15:53:45 GMT -6
deck is glazed over. streets appear to be ok though. Same. Deck is solid sheet of ice. |
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Post by tedrick65 on Jan 17, 2020 15:55:17 GMT -6
Very light rain here now. A little bit of ice on the cars and the mailbox, but nothing scrapeworthy.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 17, 2020 15:59:33 GMT -6
Hit a few slushy spots on backroads around Brighton but otherwise nothing much to report. Thin glaze on everything...maybe 0.05" and 30*
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Post by shrapnel - Arnold, MO on Jan 17, 2020 16:00:21 GMT -6
Temps around the area are 29-30 elevated surfaces are getting a nice coating . It’s still at or below freezing from Springfield Mo to west of Columbia. It’s going to take awhile before we go above freezing. Once the sun sets any left over freezing rain might accumulate quicker . Only to melt and be washed away later tonight Not true, most of that area is above freezing (barely) at 4pm and has been for a few hours. link It's warmer rain falling which I think was huge in preventing accretion.
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