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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 19, 2020 17:17:50 GMT -6
I can walk in the yard now, because it's frozen. That'll change later in the week with the warm up and rain, it'll be worse than ever. Can't wait. PS Bastardi is always wrong, always cold, trying to debunk that climate change thing. Agreed. I only threw him in because he is a big name. If I had more time I would plot temp anomaly vs. snow anomaly to show lucky and unlucky years. Certainly not a perfect metric, but I have a feeling this year would rank high in luck. Need one warning criteria snow in the next 6 weeks to feel decent |
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Post by Sparkman - Wildwood, Mo on Jan 19, 2020 17:29:35 GMT -6
I know this doesn’t apply to everyone here but at least one significant snow in November, December and January is already a moderately successful winter in my opinion. I think we have a legit shot at another good snow before Jan is over and Feb and March are statistically strong as we progress through the rest of winter. Call it luck or whatever you want but this winter will prob end up average to good - I think Beakers numbers will verify.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 19, 2020 17:32:20 GMT -6
I know this doesn’t apply to everyone here but at least one significant snow in November, December and January is already a moderately successful winter in my opinion. I think we have a legit shot at another good snow before Jan is over and Feb and March are statistically strong as we progress through the rest of winter. Call it luck or whatever you want but this winter will prob end up average to good - I think Beakers numbers will verify. The correct term is probably statistical variance. It’s what has made me argue with Friv in the past. You can get a good winter even with bad fundamentals. It’s just not the expected median outcome. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 19, 2020 17:37:51 GMT -6
18z gfs ensemble mean favors Iowa to Milwaukee for heaviest accumulations late week.
Early in the 18z run it looked to me to be caving, but I was wrong.
Still confident it will cave in the next couple runs.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jan 19, 2020 18:00:07 GMT -6
So good!   |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 19, 2020 18:16:36 GMT -6
NWS - STL posted this on Facebook  |
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Post by Sparkman - Wildwood, Mo on Jan 19, 2020 19:24:51 GMT -6
So good! That’s a beaut Clark. |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 19, 2020 19:42:19 GMT -6
Looks like the HRRR and the RAP are very similar to the NAM’s now with a band Of light snow working right down the river. Probably .25”-.50” with maybe an inch somewhere. Hopefully the NAM will continue its trends. These Quick clippers can be quite the little snow producers once they saturate. These powdery type snows can really cause traffic problems, they pack down quickly and really get slick.
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 19, 2020 19:44:39 GMT -6
Looks like the HRRR and the RAP are very similar to the NAM’s now with a band Of light snow working right down the river. Probably .25”-.50” with maybe an inch somewhere. Hopefully the NAM will continue its trends. These Quick clippers can be quite the little snow producers once they saturate. These powdery type snows can really cause traffic problems, they pack down quickly and really get slick. It also won't help that the snow will be falling when it's 19-22º... It's a good thing there's no schools in session tomorrow, coulda been messy. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 19, 2020 20:50:43 GMT -6
NWS going with flurries and light snow showers tonight which can be now be seen on radar.
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Post by yypc on Jan 19, 2020 20:52:11 GMT -6
Finally some classic january weather. Cold and clear, beautiful day today. Too bad the cold doesnt stay around.
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 19, 2020 21:07:10 GMT -6
Kinda feels like the nam is just throwing a wet noodle at us Wednesday night. Such a weird setup.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 19, 2020 21:16:23 GMT -6
Kinda feels like the nam is just throwing a wet noodle at us Wednesday night. Such a weird setup. Its a very strange setup. But I think someone in the midwest is going to get dumped on with heavy wet snow |
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Post by amstilost on Jan 19, 2020 21:16:55 GMT -6
Another shot of 'River Effect Snow" between the Mississippi and Illinois rivers??? Are the snow showers enchanced by the high water which is 'somewhat unusual' this time of year? Although, not recently 'unusual'. Is there any write ups for this somewhat common occurrence??
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gonefishin - WashMO
Junior Forecaster
Washington, Franklin County, MO
Posts: 491 
Snowfall Events: 2013-2014: A lot!
2014-2015: If you forecast it, it will come!
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Post by gonefishin - WashMO on Jan 19, 2020 21:19:45 GMT -6
Went to Clarksville today to see the eagles. They were very active. I’d say we saw no less than a dozen at a time flying over the river trying to feed. The cold weather I think helped.
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 19, 2020 21:25:39 GMT -6
Went to Clarksville today to see the eagles. They were very active. I’d say we saw no less than a dozen at a time flying over the river trying to feed. The cold weather I think helped. You could just go to dry fork road and see them as well |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 19, 2020 21:30:11 GMT -6
Flurries in wentzville
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 19, 2020 21:33:26 GMT -6
Kinda feels like the nam is just throwing a wet noodle at us Wednesday night. Such a weird setup. Its a very strange setup. But I think someone in the midwest is going to get dumped on with heavy wet snow Rare triple phase opportunity being presented... Good luck getting it to lineup in the right place, but the upside is phenomenal |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 19, 2020 21:38:51 GMT -6
Its a very strange setup. But I think someone in the midwest is going to get dumped on with heavy wet snow Rare triple phase opportunity being presented... Good luck getting it to lineup in the right place, but the upside is phenomenal Agree. Extremely unusual situation. Everything comes together right and someone gets dumped on. The flip side of that is it remains completely disorganized and we get a light rain/snow mix. Or cold rain. |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 19, 2020 21:41:47 GMT -6
0z ICON looks a little better than earlier. I agree , it will take a lot of things to happen to give us a good outcome. Definitely possible, but we are still 4-5 days out and we don’t get real lucky in the Lou.
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Jan 19, 2020 21:42:25 GMT -6
Got and flurries in union snowman?
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Post by John G -west belleville on Jan 19, 2020 21:42:41 GMT -6
Another shot of 'River Effect Snow" between the Mississippi and Illinois rivers??? Are the snow showers enchanced by the high water which is 'somewhat unusual' this time of year? Although, not recently 'unusual'. Is there any write ups for this somewhat common occurrence?? We took the metro over the river today and i was thinking about when it was normal for the river to fall below zero in the winter. |
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Jan 19, 2020 21:42:43 GMT -6
Got any flurries in union snowman? |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 19, 2020 21:47:15 GMT -6
The HRRR and RAP actually both have two separate bands of light snow one coming down the river into St. Louis and one in central Missouri around Columbia . It will be interesting to see where the snow will set up tomorrow. It’s pretty encouraging we’re getting flurries tonight with very little forcing.
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Post by amstilost on Jan 19, 2020 21:53:12 GMT -6
For the more experienced, how about a teaching moment here?  On the GFS precip/surface MSLP it shows some light snow well west of STL at the 24hr panel then it disappears. At 24hr, there is no surface reflection of anything at that time. At 700mb it shows a closed circ. near Vandalia and a closed 850 circ. centered between Mexico and the MS River. Why is the model precip snow blob at Columbia-Jeff City to the west?? Seems off to me. |
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Post by amstilost on Jan 19, 2020 22:01:41 GMT -6
And why does that emoticon face show up with a single question mark?
But not here??
Edit..and now it doesn't do it.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 19, 2020 22:06:22 GMT -6
yes flurries in union
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Post by Jeffmw on Jan 19, 2020 22:07:05 GMT -6
It’s to darn hot outside. Need it to cool off.
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 19, 2020 22:25:31 GMT -6
For the more experienced, how about a teaching moment here? On the GFS precip/surface MSLP it shows some light snow well west of STL at the 24hr panel then it disappears. At 24hr, there is no surface reflection of anything at that time. At 700mb it shows a closed circ. near Vandalia and a closed 850 circ. centered between Mexico and the MS River. Why is the model precip snow blob at Columbia-Jeff City to the west?? Seems off to me. GFS has a shallow subsidence inversion, even though the column 900mb and up is saturated. I wouldn't worry about it. Mesoscale stuff isn't meant to be analyzed through the GFS |
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Post by amstilost on Jan 19, 2020 22:31:04 GMT -6
For the more experienced, how about a teaching moment here? On the GFS precip/surface MSLP it shows some light snow well west of STL at the 24hr panel then it disappears. At 24hr, there is no surface reflection of anything at that time. At 700mb it shows a closed circ. near Vandalia and a closed 850 circ. centered between Mexico and the MS River. Why is the model precip snow blob at Columbia-Jeff City to the west?? Seems off to me. GFS has a shallow subsidence inversion, even though the column 900mb and up is saturated. I wouldn't worry about it. Mesoscale stuff isn't meant to be analyzed through the GFS Thanks, I am watching this pretty close because I have to be in Chesterfield at 2pm tomorrow and probably wont get back home until 6-7pm. |
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On the GFS precip/surface MSLP it shows some light snow well west of STL at the 24hr panel then it disappears. At 24hr, there is no surface reflection of anything at that time. At 700mb it shows a closed circ. near Vandalia and a closed 850 circ. centered between Mexico and the MS River. Why is the model precip snow blob at Columbia-Jeff City to the west?? Seems off to me.
