|
|
Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 16, 2020 15:18:59 GMT -6
RGEM beefing up the ice compared to 12Z is also a bit colder shows about .2 to .4" of ice acceleration before turning over to plain rain.
|
|
|
|
Post by landscaper on Jan 16, 2020 15:24:03 GMT -6
RGEM does look a lot better. Maybe now the models will slowly catch on the we’re to strong with the dam. The RGEM at 6z was basically dry in the metro, now it has a decent event
|
|
giarC71
Wishcaster
Posts: 220 
Snowfall Events: Blizzard of'82 I became addicted to weather
|
Post by giarC71 on Jan 16, 2020 15:29:50 GMT -6
What is the latest timeline for this event? Are we still looking at late morning to about Noon for Precip to break out in the Metro area?
|
|
|
|
Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 16, 2020 15:34:51 GMT -6
Now the rush to Schnucks or insert favorite grocery store begins for bread, milk, and eggs... Oh and butter. Don't forget toilet paper. |
|
|
|
Post by landscaper on Jan 16, 2020 15:35:42 GMT -6
Models are slowly trending better with moisture. The RAP and HRRR look much better than earlier today.
|
|
|
|
Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 16, 2020 15:36:34 GMT -6
What is the latest timeline for this event? Are we still looking at late morning to about Noon for Precip to break out in the Metro area? Between 11AM and 1PM or around lunch time at least for anything meaningful. Can't rule out a flake or sleet pellet between 9-11AM however. |
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 16, 2020 15:38:22 GMT -6
Models are slowly trending better with moisture. The RAP and HRRR look much better than earlier today. WAA events tend to trend wetter the closer to the event we get. The dry air monster is going to be tough this time though |
|
|
|
Post by landscaper on Jan 16, 2020 15:39:09 GMT -6
For the metro are, I like the 9am-12pm start time , probably sometime in that window. 9am if things are quicker to saturate and 12pm if the DAM beats it back. Early afternoon on the Illinois side and before 9am south west and west of St. Louis is my best guess.
|
|
|
|
Post by mmarkillie82 on Jan 16, 2020 15:46:26 GMT -6
Im supposed to fly in to STL around 5pm. Boys are playing in a hockey tournament all weekend. There are 3 big tournaments in STL this weekend.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 16, 2020 15:47:03 GMT -6
GFS looks colder and a bit wetter
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Jan 16, 2020 15:48:06 GMT -6
Last couple of runs the gfs has flakes flying by 6 or 7 am. May be a bit early but let's see what trends are this evening
|
|
|
|
Post by jmg378s on Jan 16, 2020 16:00:06 GMT -6
Just a quick word about freezing rain accumulation on model charts. And I realize most on here already know this. First keep in mind that models, especially the NAM and other meso-models are often too high with the QPF. Second a recent empirical study indicates that ice-to-liquid ratio (ice accumulation) as measured radially on a elevated surface has a median value of about 0.7. Third, some models...ahem RGEM, are notorious for being too cold.
My opinion, given where we stand with broader model picture today I think the going forecast of 0.10-0.25" of highest ice accumulation looks reasonable...for now.
|
|
|
|
Post by mmarkillie82 on Jan 16, 2020 16:05:22 GMT -6
Just a quick word about freezing rain accumulation on model charts. And I realize most on here already know this. First keep in mind that models, especially the NAM and other meso-models are often too high with the QPF. Second a recent empirical study indicates that ice-to-liquid ratio (ice accumulation) as measured radially on a elevated surface has a median value of about 0.7. Third, some models...ahem RGEM, are notorious for being too cold. My opinion, given where we stand with broader model picture today I think the going forecast of 0.10-0.25" of highest ice accumulation looks reasonable...for now. Think we will be safe driving tomorrow? Im biased but i think roads should be fine. Marginally cold and warming. What say you? (Metro area) |
|
|
|
Post by jmg378s on Jan 16, 2020 16:08:43 GMT -6
Just a quick word about freezing rain accumulation on model charts. And I realize most on here already know this. First keep in mind that models, especially the NAM and other meso-models are often too high with the QPF. Second a recent empirical study indicates that ice-to-liquid ratio (ice accumulation) as measured radially on a elevated surface has a median value of about 0.7. Third, some models...ahem RGEM, are notorious for being too cold. My opinion, given where we stand with broader model picture today I think the going forecast of 0.10-0.25" of highest ice accumulation looks reasonable...for now. Think we will be safe driving tomorrow? Im biased but i think roads should be fine. Marginally cold and warming. What say you? (Metro area) To be honest...no I don't think the roads will be fine. It's going to get plenty cold tonight and freezing rain may be falling, at least for a time, with temps near or below 30F. We all know it doesn't take much for roads to become bad around here. |
|
|
|
Post by nascarfan999 on Jan 16, 2020 16:18:36 GMT -6
Think we will be safe driving tomorrow? Im biased but i think roads should be fine. Marginally cold and warming. What say you? (Metro area) To be honest...no I don't think the roads will be fine. It's going to get plenty cold tonight and freezing rain may be falling, at least for a time, with temps near or below 30F. We all know it doesn't take much for roads to become bad around here. And it takes even less for the drivers around here to become bad at navigating the roads in inclement weather. |
|
|
|
Post by Tilawn on Jan 16, 2020 16:28:30 GMT -6
If anyone goes to work tomorrow or sends their kids to school etc then don’t complain if you are stranded because this has been advertised for sometime. I for one will be treating everything heavy tonight and I dont really plan to put myself at risk tomorrow while this unfolds. This is a dangerous type system and there is absolutely no reason why most people aren’t able to just stay home tomorrow etc.
|
|
|
|
Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Jan 16, 2020 16:36:58 GMT -6
I was shocked the state called hazardous travel weather for us state employees already for tomorrow.
|
|
scorpiofml
Weather Weenie
South Side Wright City, Mo
Posts: 19 
|
Post by scorpiofml on Jan 16, 2020 16:40:32 GMT -6
Wright City school district has already called for tomorrow
|
|
|
|
Post by snowjunky on Jan 16, 2020 16:40:38 GMT -6
If anyone goes to work tomorrow or sends their kids to school etc then don’t complain if you are stranded because this has been advertised for sometime. I for one will be treating everything heavy tonight and I dont really plan to put myself at risk tomorrow while this unfolds. This is a dangerous type system and there is absolutely no reason why most people aren’t able to just stay home tomorrow etc. AMEN!! |
|
giarC71
Wishcaster
Posts: 220
Snowfall Events: Blizzard of'82 I became addicted to weather
|
Post by giarC71 on Jan 16, 2020 16:49:06 GMT -6
If anyone goes to work tomorrow or sends their kids to school etc then don’t complain if you are stranded because this has been advertised for sometime. I for one will be treating everything heavy tonight and I dont really plan to put myself at risk tomorrow while this unfolds. This is a dangerous type system and there is absolutely no reason why most people aren’t able to just stay home tomorrow etc. AMEN!! Corporate America is out of touch with local weather. Just like when people are sick. They have a problem with when it's high and dry in their location. At least where I work they are sensitive to peoples safety. |
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 16, 2020 16:50:20 GMT -6
If anyone goes to work tomorrow or sends their kids to school etc then don’t complain if you are stranded because this has been advertised for sometime. I for one will be treating everything heavy tonight and I dont really plan to put myself at risk tomorrow while this unfolds. This is a dangerous type system and there is absolutely no reason why most people aren’t able to just stay home tomorrow etc. Well said...100% agree. |
|
|
|
Post by dmbstl on Jan 16, 2020 16:50:35 GMT -6
Wright City school district has already called for tomorrow Are there any teachers/admins/connected people from the big districts (Parkway, Rockwood, Francis Howell etc) with insight as to what the thoughts are? Should I be expecting the 4am robocall? |
|
gonefishin - WashMO
Junior Forecaster
Washington, Franklin County, MO
Posts: 491
Snowfall Events: 2013-2014: A lot!
2014-2015: If you forecast it, it will come!
|
Post by gonefishin - WashMO on Jan 16, 2020 16:56:59 GMT -6
If anyone goes to work tomorrow or sends their kids to school etc then don’t complain if you are stranded because this has been advertised for sometime. I for one will be treating everything heavy tonight and I dont really plan to put myself at risk tomorrow while this unfolds. This is a dangerous type system and there is absolutely no reason why most people aren’t able to just stay home tomorrow etc. Our principal isn’t calling it yet, but told everyone to make plans in case we do call. She also encouraged anyone who doesn’t feel safe to stay home. She may call it in the morning, but wants everyone to have a backup plan just in case. |
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 16, 2020 17:21:29 GMT -6
Latest hrrr has snow/sleet breaking out in the metro in time for the morning rush
|
|
|
|
Post by maddogchief on Jan 16, 2020 17:29:16 GMT -6
I’d say 12 hours from now precip is a safe bet.  |
|
lunchladyd
Junior Forecaster
On the Troy -Silex, Mo. line
Posts: 399
|
Post by lunchladyd on Jan 16, 2020 17:48:04 GMT -6
Our school has already called off for tomorrow. We are not taking g any chances.
|
|
|
|
Post by bororug on Jan 16, 2020 17:58:22 GMT -6
“Better days in May”. That’s the rule of thumb for many administrators. This type of ice scenario you just don’t risk. TiLawn absolutely hit the nail on the head.
|
|
|
|
Post by toddatfarmington on Jan 16, 2020 17:59:17 GMT -6
Just a quick word about freezing rain accumulation on model charts. And I realize most on here already know this. First keep in mind that models, especially the NAM and other meso-models are often too high with the QPF. Second a recent empirical study indicates that ice-to-liquid ratio (ice accumulation) as measured radially on a elevated surface has a median value of about 0.7. Third, some models...ahem RGEM, are notorious for being too cold. My opinion, given where we stand with broader model picture today I think the going forecast of 0.10-0.25" of highest ice accumulation looks reasonable...for now. NWS indicated earlier at that time they were very skeptical about the .25” accumulations in the .10-.25 range. |
|
|
|
Post by freezyfree on Jan 16, 2020 17:59:30 GMT -6
“Better days in May”. That’s the rule of thumb for many administrators. This is something you just don’t risk. TiLawn absolutely hit the nail on the head. Hmmmmm....where have I heard that before? |
|
|
|
Post by SnowManJoe - Wentzville, MO on Jan 16, 2020 18:04:40 GMT -6
Wentzville is already off tomorrow for a Professional Development day. It will be interesting to see if they make us come and/or stay as things develop.
|
|
