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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 16, 2020 18:14:24 GMT -6
Meanwhile watching a You Tube video from Fairbanks/North Pole Alaska last week. They still had school even though the temps were 45 to 50 below (that's about as low as it ever gets in that area) with ice fog and lots of snow on the ground and the roads. And the kids were getting off the buses and getting in to the house in the dark because they still only have 3-4 hours of daylight at this point.
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Post by bororug on Jan 16, 2020 18:20:02 GMT -6
“Better days in May”. That’s the rule of thumb for many administrators. This is something you just don’t risk. TiLawn absolutely hit the nail on the head. Hmmmmm....where have I heard that before? A wise man once told me that! |
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 16, 2020 18:29:29 GMT -6
I've seen the Dec. 2006 ice storm mentioned several times over the years on this forum. It was certainly historic. I'm not taking away from that at all.
However, the Jan. 2007 ice storm always seems to be forgotten perhaps because it affected a different group of people.
The SGF AFD and pro forecaster statements used words like "historic", "epic", "catastrophic", and even "unimaginable". Some locations west of Rolla reported well over 2.0" of ZR with solid 2"+ accretions. 1"+ accretions were widespread.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 16, 2020 18:46:06 GMT -6
Meanwhile watching a You Tube video from Fairbanks/North Pole Alaska last week. They still had school even though the temps were 45 to 50 below (that's about as low as it ever gets in that area) with ice fog and lots of snow on the ground and the roads. And the kids were getting off the buses and getting in to the house in the dark because they still only have 3-4 hours of daylight at this point. Or as they call it there...Tuesday |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 16, 2020 18:46:41 GMT -6
WAA Events almost always start earlier than expected... Sometimes by as much as 6 hours from even the most recent model run... Which is why I am still calling for the 1st flakes and pings of sleet to occur during the morning rush hour... Maybe late in the rush hour but during the rush all the same.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 16, 2020 18:59:38 GMT -6
Meanwhile watching a You Tube video from Fairbanks/North Pole Alaska last week. They still had school even though the temps were 45 to 50 below (that's about as low as it ever gets in that area) with ice fog and lots of snow on the ground and the roads. And the kids were getting off the buses and getting in to the house in the dark because they still only have 3-4 hours of daylight at this point. Or as they call it there...Tuesday Yep. Although the 40-50 below was even starting to get to them after a week or more. They were celebrating that it has warmed up to near zero this week. Although more of the really cold stuff is heading their way. |
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Post by grizzlebeard on Jan 16, 2020 19:10:11 GMT -6
I agree with Chris. I expect roads to start to deteriorate in the 270 loop by 8am. This is a big slug of water, and I think that will accelerate the deterioration of the DAM.
Also, waiting on the grammar/spelling police to swoop in on Chris's post. Everyone slips up occasionally. By not just overlooking the obvious simple spelling mistakes some make for whatever reason, you guys chill the effect of the "non-regulars" asking questions and learning on this forum. No one wants to get hammered for a mistake when they are just trying to contribute and learn! Can't we all just get along?!??
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 16, 2020 19:32:01 GMT -6
If I'm guilty- I apologize.
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 16, 2020 19:52:53 GMT -6
Sitting at a balmy 24º
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 16, 2020 19:54:55 GMT -6
NAM sure is icy
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 16, 2020 19:55:42 GMT -6
Nam argues ice storm warning even in st.louis proper
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 16, 2020 19:59:12 GMT -6
Ice ice baby  |
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Post by tedrick65 on Jan 16, 2020 20:00:27 GMT -6
Surprised to already see DeSmet on the list for tomorrow...
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Post by snowjunky on Jan 16, 2020 20:00:38 GMT -6
WAA Events almost always start earlier than expected... Sometimes by as much as 6 hours from even the most recent model run... Which is why I am still calling for the 1st flakes and pings of sleet to occur during the morning rush hour... Maybe late in the rush hour but during the rush all the same. You back to the 2 Fox morning shift tomorrow Chris? |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 16, 2020 20:02:58 GMT -6
Hi res NAM looks wetter this run to
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 16, 2020 20:05:03 GMT -6
Nam has more than .5 all frozen thru 6pm.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 16, 2020 20:05:42 GMT -6
Umsl is closed tomorrow already
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 16, 2020 20:05:45 GMT -6
Someone may have brought it up and I missed it, but the 18z Euro was noticeably icier  |
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Post by tedrick65 on Jan 16, 2020 20:07:32 GMT -6
Umsl is closed tomorrow already UMSL doesn't actually start classes until Tuesday...so it's just administrators and faculty. |
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 16, 2020 20:08:35 GMT -6
Oops sorry did not know that
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Post by tedrick65 on Jan 16, 2020 20:16:59 GMT -6
Oops sorry did not know that That all being said, I agree with Tilawn. We have a significant threat of an ice event tomorrow. Is it really worth it to do another experiment regarding accuracy of the forecast? Trying to get home last January 11th was one of the toughest things I've been through in a long time. The school districts thought they could beat the clock and were very wrong across the board. It's a holiday weekend. Call it off and we'll figure it out later. |
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443 
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Post by mccarthb on Jan 16, 2020 20:20:59 GMT -6
WAA Events almost always start earlier than expected... Sometimes by as much as 6 hours from even the most recent model run... Which is why I am still calling for the 1st flakes and pings of sleet to occur during the morning rush hour... Maybe late in the rush hour but during the rush all the same. Chris,
I have the principal of Immaculate Conception of Dardenne, Dan Mullenschlader asking me to provide him with the latest on the weather given his proposal on an early 11am dismissal. I'm trying to advise him against this given the potential for that time to be hazardous for travel to and from the school. He has asked me to inform him of what to expect from rush hour thru late morning/early afternoon so he can revise if necessary.
I know it's a tough call for any school administrator/principal but the late morning dismissal just doesn't sit well with me. Your thoughts?
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Post by tedrick65 on Jan 16, 2020 20:30:39 GMT -6
WAA Events almost always start earlier than expected... Sometimes by as much as 6 hours from even the most recent model run... Which is why I am still calling for the 1st flakes and pings of sleet to occur during the morning rush hour... Maybe late in the rush hour but during the rush all the same. Chris, I have the principal of Immaculate Conception of Dardenne, Dan Mullenschlader asking me to provide him with the latest on the weather given his proposal on an early 11am dismissal. I'm trying to advise him against this given the potential for that time to be hazardous for travel to and from the school. He has asked me to inform him of what to expect from rush hour thru late morning/early afternoon so he can revise if necessary. I know it's a tough call for any school administrator/principal but the late morning dismissal just doesn't sit well with me. Your thoughts?
Not wanting to be a jerk, but ICD's principal needs to take some ownership on this. Chris shouldn't have to directly comment on specific calls like this in public beyond what is in his on-air and online forecasts. There is a significant threat of an ice event tomorrow. That's clear from all available forecast sources. If schools do a half-day tomorrow, they may be taking a risk on safety getting home. No one will know for sure until tomorrow. |
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cowboy
Wishcaster
10 miles west of rolla
Posts: 197
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Post by cowboy on Jan 16, 2020 20:40:11 GMT -6
I believe if I was a super with this particular event I would be up early checking to see what if any changes have been made to the forecast and make my decision then. Of course I’m up early everyday so not a big deal to me.
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Jan 16, 2020 20:43:28 GMT -6
Chris, I have the principal of Immaculate Conception of Dardenne, Dan Mullenschlader asking me to provide him with the latest on the weather given his proposal on an early 11am dismissal. I'm trying to advise him against this given the potential for that time to be hazardous for travel to and from the school. He has asked me to inform him of what to expect from rush hour thru late morning/early afternoon so he can revise if necessary. I know it's a tough call for any school administrator/principal but the late morning dismissal just doesn't sit well with me. Your thoughts?
Not wanting to be a jerk, but ICD's principal needs to take some ownership on this. Chris shouldn't have to directly comment on specific calls like this in public beyond what is in his on-air and online forecasts. There is a significant threat of an ice event tomorrow. That's clear from all available forecast sources. If schools do a half-day tomorrow, they may be taking a risk on safety getting home. No one will know for sure until tomorrow. Not a jerk thing to say so no offense taken. The early dismissal has me alarmed for the safety of our parish, the families and children who attend school there. There's been a lot of confusion with this storm but with ice being a potential threat, I agree, safety comes before everything else especially if there is doubt on behalf of the person responsible for hundreds of children/families.
But as it stands, it seems he is unclear based on his reply to my reply of my concern for an early dismissal at 11am. ------------------------------
Brennan,
If you could forward me some sources to track this storm I would appreciate it.
Thank you for your help.
In Christ, Dan
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 16, 2020 20:43:33 GMT -6
HRRR trend the last several runs  |
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 16, 2020 20:47:12 GMT -6
HRRR trend the last several runs That’s actually very concerning now! |
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Post by packrat on Jan 16, 2020 20:47:57 GMT -6
If anyone goes to work tomorrow or sends their kids to school etc then don’t complain if you are stranded because this has been advertised for sometime. I for one will be treating everything heavy tonight and I dont really plan to put myself at risk tomorrow while this unfolds. This is a dangerous type system and there is absolutely no reason why most people aren’t able to just stay home tomorrow etc. Staying home is not an option for everyone. I do not work in an “essential” industry but I guarantee people will still show up to my place of business and as the GM I am expected to be there. |
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Post by jeffcobeeman on Jan 16, 2020 20:48:10 GMT -6
I believe if I was a super with this particular event I would be up early checking to see what if any changes have been made to the forecast and make my decision then. Of course I’m up early everyday so not a big deal to me. I'd rather get the call the night before though. So much more satisfying! |
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 16, 2020 20:52:06 GMT -6
Fort zumwalt pulling the trigger im sure francis howel will come soon
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