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Post by bdgwx on Jan 16, 2020 22:15:17 GMT -6
That hodograph though...
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 16, 2020 22:15:59 GMT -6
Hrrrrrrr gets fasterrrr with each run
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 16, 2020 22:16:10 GMT -6
BTW...GFS has over 1" of precipitation so we don't need to worry about the mud getting dehydrated.
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 16, 2020 22:17:26 GMT -6
I cannot believe the NWS is not pulling out the ice storm warning. This looks written in writing to me. Tomorrow is going to be very bad for sure in my opinion.
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 16, 2020 22:21:05 GMT -6
Just looking through NAM BUFKIT soundings. Using Bourgouin energy method precip type wouldn't stay IP very long...quick transition to ZR as a +5C warm nose develops shortly after low levels get saturated. Actually these profiles look pretty nasty with a lot of precip falling at around 28-29F. But as the surface warms up the warm nose ends up right around +10C. Which would be some very warm drops falling into a marginally freezing surface and that would not be very efficient icing at all.
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Post by snowjunky on Jan 16, 2020 22:22:09 GMT -6
Hrrrrrrr gets fasterrrr with each run And what affect does that have being faster? |
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 16, 2020 22:24:20 GMT -6
Hrrrrrrr gets fasterrrr with each run And what affect does that have being faster? Onset of precip. Several Illinois schools are dismissing at 11 and 12 which is downright irresponsible to try to squeeze 3 hours in like that. |
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Post by mosue56 on Jan 16, 2020 22:27:46 GMT -6
It seems lots of schools in JeffCo have closed, but I haven’t seen Parkway, Rockwood or SSD close yet!
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 16, 2020 22:28:05 GMT -6
There is no difference in that disco than from the last day or 2, and from what Chris has been saying. Maybe a couple hrs of snow, then a few or so hrs of sleet then several hrs of freezing rain. Sleet and snow less than an inch zr .25 or less. Likely np warning issues except maybe parts of central and ne MO. The warm nose is gonna warm those drops up a lot later tomorrow.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 16, 2020 22:29:22 GMT -6
they in my opinion will pull a warning with the morning update if trends continue
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Post by grizzlebeard on Jan 16, 2020 22:32:56 GMT -6
We are almost past the point of model reading, and to the point where the art of the science comes into play. It is time to focus on experience in forecasting in the Lou....uhhhh....Nowcasting.....
This close to an event, folks that are focused on models and not on current radar, temperatures and relying on experience are missing half of the equation for correctly forecasting the next 24 hours.
It is like watching your kid's performance through the lens of your phone or videocamera....you don't really experience the full picture.
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sullivanjohn
Wishcaster
Sullivan, MO
Posts: 141 
Snowfall Events: Code Monkey
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Post by sullivanjohn on Jan 16, 2020 22:39:25 GMT -6
The pro NWS mets are pros for a reason...and I'm not for the opposite reason lol.
Having said that...having a platform and the ability to get a stronger message out to the public regarding what is now looking like a pretty danged impactful system and not chosing to do so is negligent.
It just seems like with this particular storm, the NWS message has been semi-downplayed. Maybe for a good reason.
I hope what I see happening tomorrow doesn't come to fruition...and that the going NWS discussion is correct. I really mean that.
Just hate it that Joe 6 Pack is gonna fireup his 4wd whatever in the morning and tear off like it is any other day...
Perhaps a more strongly worded message to the public wouldn't even matter though...cause as we know, people are gonna people. Lol
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 16, 2020 22:41:13 GMT -6
canadian sows near 1 inch of ice, half that would be bad
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 16, 2020 22:42:19 GMT -6
lets see euro thus far every model is on board for something impactful
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Post by mchafin on Jan 16, 2020 22:46:13 GMT -6
The pro NWS mets are pros for a reason...and I'm not for the opposite reason lol. Having said that...having a platform and the ability to get a stronger message out to the public regarding what is now looking like a pretty danged impactful system and not chosing to do so is negligent. It just seems like with this particular storm, the NWS message has been semi-downplayed. Maybe for a good reason. I hope what I see happening tomorrow doesn't come to fruition...and that the going NWS discussion is correct. I really mean that. Just hate it that Joe 6 Pack is gonna fireup his 4wd whatever in the morning and tear off like it is any other day... Perhaps a more strongly worded message to the public wouldn't even matter though...cause as we know, people are gonna people. Lol Local news (Glenn) did a good job explaining the potential tonight. I think the point was hammered home. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 16, 2020 22:46:23 GMT -6
moderate IP has broken out in Neosho on the MO/OK border.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 16, 2020 22:53:32 GMT -6
moderate IP has broken out in Neosho on the MO/OK border. HRRR is struggling with this one. Has all that as rain |
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sullivanjohn
Wishcaster
Sullivan, MO
Posts: 141
Snowfall Events: Code Monkey
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Post by sullivanjohn on Jan 16, 2020 22:56:11 GMT -6
The pro NWS mets are pros for a reason...and I'm not for the opposite reason lol. Having said that...having a platform and the ability to get a stronger message out to the public regarding what is now looking like a pretty danged impactful system and not chosing to do so is negligent. It just seems like with this particular storm, the NWS message has been semi-downplayed. Maybe for a good reason. I hope what I see happening tomorrow doesn't come to fruition...and that the going NWS discussion is correct. I really mean that. Just hate it that Joe 6 Pack is gonna fireup his 4wd whatever in the morning and tear off like it is any other day... Perhaps a more strongly worded message to the public wouldn't even matter though...cause as we know, people are gonna people. Lol Local news (Glenn) did a good job explaining the potential tonight. I think the point was hammered home. Yeah, I was referencing the NWS...but I hear ya. Just hope folks listen...and don't think that just because we're not under a warning that roads will be fine. Time for me to sit back and enjoy whatever weather comes our way 👍 |
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Post by jeepers on Jan 16, 2020 22:57:35 GMT -6
After seeing firsthand what freezing humidity, not even drizzle, can do to untreated roads, anything frozen is a red flag on the field for me. I don’t need ice storm criteria.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 16, 2020 23:00:43 GMT -6
Ukie is on board with impactful icing tomorrow
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Post by dschreib on Jan 16, 2020 23:01:29 GMT -6
I cannot believe the NWS is not pulling out the ice storm warning. This looks written in writing to me. Tomorrow is going to be very bad for sure in my opinion. Glass has forgotten more about weather than I’ll ever know, so I’ll just run with it. |
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Post by jeffcobeeman on Jan 16, 2020 23:01:36 GMT -6
It seems lots of schools in JeffCo have closed, but I haven’t seen Parkway, Rockwood or SSD close yet! St. Louis County schools said they are waiting until tomorrow morning to decide. |
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Post by jeepers on Jan 16, 2020 23:04:21 GMT -6
Oh derp to them.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 16, 2020 23:07:21 GMT -6
Veering...warm air advection really showing its face above 850mb at that point (6pm CST). |
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Post by koll27–Waterloo, IL on Jan 16, 2020 23:08:02 GMT -6
Jennings and Ferguson/Florissant are closed already tomorrow.
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Post by dschreib on Jan 16, 2020 23:08:05 GMT -6
And the folks who drive like idiots are going to drive like idiots. I don’t believe they have the NWS page bookmarked, or even pay attention to the warning crawls, for that matter. As was previously said, some of us will be working. I’ll be driving ~55 miles from Marissa to near the airport and will provide updates as I can.
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 16, 2020 23:08:31 GMT -6
It seems lots of schools in JeffCo have closed, but I haven’t seen Parkway, Rockwood or SSD close yet! St. Louis County schools said they are waiting until tomorrow morning to decide. My son isn't going. |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 16, 2020 23:09:53 GMT -6
I noticed the Springfield NWS offices mentioned in there updated discussion that temps across the are we’re running 1-2 degrees below guidance. My temp is down to 23 with a dew point of 13. That is colder than I expected. If temps stay that cold tomorrow morning that will definitely make things interesting. They also mentioned The precipitation was moving 2-3 hours earlier than models had shown.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 16, 2020 23:11:55 GMT -6
Veering...warm air advection really showing its face above 850mb at that point (6pm CST). If you ever see that hodograph with any cape you better run for the basement |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 16, 2020 23:13:08 GMT -6
I just got back from pre treating all our sites. We have a heavy amount of salt down and will be reloaded and staged ready to treat all the properties again as soon as the sleet and ZR start. This storm is going to eat a lot of chemicals to control it .
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