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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 16, 2020 23:20:18 GMT -6
Veering...warm air advection really showing its face above 850mb at that point (6pm CST). If you ever see that hodograph with any cape you better run for the basement Yep...lots of wind shear in many directions (curved). When it's all done... Less an 1" in of snow ~0.25" in of sleet Up to 1/3" in of ice glazing ~1" in of rain Seems realistic. I think we could all say, the ice accumulations have the highest variability right now haha. |
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Post by eurekakim on Jan 16, 2020 23:51:18 GMT -6
SSD schools closed tomorrow. That’s great as I was not going to send my son. Rockwood and Parkway are crazy to hold out until the morning if the trend keeps going like it is.
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 16, 2020 23:55:35 GMT -6
EURO very icy.
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 16, 2020 23:58:25 GMT -6
altho temps jump to ~30 during the heaviest across metro STL.
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 17, 2020 0:10:05 GMT -6
Even if only half of that materializes in central MO you might be able to justify an upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 17, 2020 0:10:44 GMT -6
Euro  |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 17, 2020 0:12:59 GMT -6
Even if only half of that materializes in central MO you might be able to justify an upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning. Even halving the ice amounts of the latest guidance results in near or above warning criteria. I doubt we see any warnings but it wouldn't shock me to see some either |
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 17, 2020 0:13:08 GMT -6
It is showing an incredibly fast warm up between hours 36 and 42...nearly +10F change.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 17, 2020 0:23:51 GMT -6
Might hit 50 tomorrow night lol
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 17, 2020 0:25:38 GMT -6
I think the rain washing this ice away and the temp rise really shortening the ordeal, most likely mitigating many power outages and such will be why we stay advisory as opposed to warning. But. Who knows
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 17, 2020 0:26:17 GMT -6
We have i missed guys? With my new job its hard to follow as much like i used too. I go in to work by 2:30-3pm. Will it be rain by then?
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 17, 2020 0:26:57 GMT -6
That EURO is impressive to say the least. Wow!
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 17, 2020 0:28:07 GMT -6
The water heater was leaking earlier today so I knew the bottom is rusted out.....so I went and picked one up this afternoon and was gonna install Friday or Saturday but now I get home from pretreating and it’s leaking a lot worse so at midnight I’m changing out the water heater!!!
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 17, 2020 0:30:29 GMT -6
The water heater was leaking earlier today so I knew the bottom is rusted out.....so I went and picked one up this afternoon and was gonna install Friday or Saturday but now I get home from pretreating and it’s leaking a lot worse so at midnight I’m changing out the water heater!!! Damn that sucks. Sorry to hear that. Glad you know how to replace one. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 17, 2020 0:31:33 GMT -6
We have i missed guys? With my new job its hard to follow as much like i used too. I go in to work by 2:30-3pm. Will it be rain by then? Not likely. Looks like temps will stay below freezing until 6-7pm |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 17, 2020 0:46:18 GMT -6
That EURO is impressive to say the least. Wow! Better get to updatin' your fb page.   |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 17, 2020 0:46:32 GMT -6
We have i missed guys? With my new job its hard to follow as much like i used too. I go in to work by 2:30-3pm. Will it be rain by then? Not likely. Looks like temps will stay below freezing until 6-7pm Ya i seen that. I was to tired to read through all the posts. But i did anyways. Too much it sounds like this storm could go either way. Be bad or not too bad. Lol |
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 17, 2020 0:54:16 GMT -6
That EURO is impressive to say the least. Wow! Better get to updatin' your fb page. We always keep it very up to date sir. You should know this lol |
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 17, 2020 1:20:34 GMT -6
Looks like the EURO keeps surface temps below freezing until about 9p. Sure does look like a decent amount of sleet and ice coming our way in my opinion.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 17, 2020 3:16:00 GMT -6
Good morning all.
The forecast remains on track. Good thing I didn't delay the start time much. As expected the models have pulled back on the timing too much and it sure looks like 8am to noon start time is right on the mark...more specifically...closer to 8 to 10am in metro STL.
As for the playout...
I still like snow/sleet at the onset for a couple of hours with 1" or less of snow/sleet.
Transition to sleet and freezing rain happens close to midday with more freezing rain than anything else by mid-afternoon.
Temperatures should warm above freezing between 3pm and 6pm based on SREF plumes...with effecient ice accretion ending around 3pm due to warm drops, marginal temperatures, etc.
Total ice accretion will technically approach warning criterion at around 1/4 inch... but I'm not sure that's worth upgrading to a warning as the messaging is essentially the same.
Roads will become slushy and icy quickly with the onset of snow and sleet. The freezing rain will add to the mess. By mid-afternoon, much of the ice build up will shift to elevated surfaces with marginal temperatures and warming drops.
A high end advisory when it all wraps up with a few spots kissing warning criteria to the north of STL where it stays colder longer....so maybe a couple counties will get the honors of an upgrade north of I-70. Who knows.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 17, 2020 3:31:23 GMT -6
Just heard from the NWS ... no headline changes with the morning update.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 17, 2020 4:01:48 GMT -6
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 17, 2020 4:49:43 GMT -6
It’s chugging right up 64. Like Chris said... should be in stl by 9.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 17, 2020 5:18:49 GMT -6
So where exactly is the stuff reaching the ground? Not at the leading edge that's on radar I'm assuming. I don't see anything being reported in Rolla.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 17, 2020 5:22:37 GMT -6
Today is a good day to have mPING app
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 17, 2020 5:45:18 GMT -6
Eastern Ozarks... but folks are sleeping so I'm assuming we are missing some reports on the leading edge.
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Post by perryville on Jan 17, 2020 5:51:21 GMT -6
West Plains airport reporting unknown precip. I installed mPING and a freezing rain report west of Poplar Bluff is the closest/latest report. Am I reading that correctly?
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 17, 2020 5:52:03 GMT -6
West Plains airport reporting unknown precip. I installed mPING and a freezing rain report west of Poplar Bluff is the closest/latest report. Am I reading the correctly? That's about right... yes. |
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Post by snowjunky on Jan 17, 2020 6:01:50 GMT -6
Looks like WSC will see some snow and ice from this as well.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 17, 2020 6:05:03 GMT -6
The Storm Runner is driving around and reporting back with road temperatures near 30. That will help mitigate some extreme issues... but still cold enough to support slush build up.
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