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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Mar 3, 2020 15:01:17 GMT -6
Seeing some damage pictures of completely demolished homes and some where almost cleanly wiped foundation slabs are the only thing left. Impossible to know construction quality, but generally that'll get you into the violent categories. EF3 at least for sure. EF4... certainly possible...if not probable. EF5... cant rule out...but they will bring in national folks before going that high. I was obviously out of comission for the event... but from what I can tell, the highest outlooked risk for Nashville was Marginal. Is that correct? Yessir. |
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Post by jmg378s on Mar 3, 2020 15:02:41 GMT -6
Not sure what the 1z SPC outlook showed but the 2000z outlook I think had Nashville in slight. Cookeville may have been marginal though...will try to take a closer look later.
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Post by jmg378s on Mar 3, 2020 15:04:51 GMT -6
Just watched the Putnam County (Cookeville) helicopter fly over. Horrible!
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Post by maddogchief on Mar 3, 2020 15:05:05 GMT -6
This viral flu like crap can go away.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 3, 2020 15:12:07 GMT -6
Not sure what the 1z SPC outlook showed but the 2000z outlook I think had Nashville in slight. Cookeville may have been marginal though...will try to take a closer look later. Looks like up until the 1630z update Nashville was on the slight/marginal border. The slight risk then expanded East www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20200302 |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Mar 3, 2020 15:22:47 GMT -6
This viral flu like crap can go away. you too? |
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Post by jmg378s on Mar 3, 2020 15:25:51 GMT -6
Not sure what the 1z SPC outlook showed but the 2000z outlook I think had Nashville in slight. Cookeville may have been marginal though...will try to take a closer look later. Looks like up until the 1630z update Nashville was on the slight/marginal border. The slight risk then expanded East www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20200302Yeah and if I'm looking at that correctly Cookeville was in the Marginal with no delineated tornado threat. |
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Post by jmg378s on Mar 3, 2020 15:29:52 GMT -6
Putnam County is the eastern-most red dot I believe.  |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Mar 3, 2020 15:31:18 GMT -6
Not sure what the 1z SPC outlook showed but the 2000z outlook I think had Nashville in slight. Cookeville may have been marginal though...will try to take a closer look later. Looks like up until the 1630z update Nashville was on the slight/marginal border. The slight risk then expanded East www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20200302Overall.. outlooks werent too bad. But... it once again proves a point about the major difficiencu of the messaging. How can we have a long track tornado kill 21 people in a SLT/MGNL outlook and yet we have many enhanced, moderates or even high risks that produce less than we saw yesterday. I am by no means pointing fingers or saying there was something done wrong. I have seen nothing to indicate anything less than a stellar performance of the forecasters yesterday. I am just pointing out how severe wx outlooks are too confusing and frequently give a false sense of security...or false sense of skill. Does that make sense??? I am on some great cough medcine right now  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 3, 2020 15:36:36 GMT -6
Seeing some damage pictures of completely demolished homes and some where almost cleanly wiped foundation slabs are the only thing left. Impossible to know construction quality, but generally that'll get you into the violent categories. I was just about to post this..definitely looks like at least EF4 damage. |
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Post by bdgwx on Mar 3, 2020 16:42:02 GMT -6
I wasn't really paying attention last night either. What was the thermodynamic and kinematic environment like? Was this a fluke event?
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Post by cozpregon on Mar 3, 2020 16:47:42 GMT -6
Overall.. outlooks werent too bad. But... it once again proves a point about the major difficiencu of the messaging. How can we have a long track tornado kill 21 people in a SLT/MGNL outlook and yet we have many enhanced, moderates or even high risks that produce less than we saw yesterday. I am by no means pointing fingers or saying there was something done wrong. I have seen nothing to indicate anything less than a stellar performance of the forecasters yesterday. I am just pointing out how severe wx outlooks are too confusing and frequently give a false sense of security...or false sense of skill. Does that make sense??? I am on some great cough medcine right now If it tracked 30 miles further north- likely wouldn’t even be talking about it |
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Post by Snowman99 on Mar 3, 2020 16:54:37 GMT -6
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 3, 2020 17:12:44 GMT -6
I wasn't really paying attention last night either. What was the thermodynamic and kinematic environment like? Was this a fluke event? I checked the sigtors when the tornado was happening and they were around 2. While significant you would expect a higher sigtor for a long track violent tornado |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Mar 3, 2020 17:23:37 GMT -6
Listening to Glen talk about how the death toll in Nashville is possibly higher because of the time of day and that many people were asleep. I realize it's a smaller city and the tornado struck an hour or more earlier. But it really brings to light how fortunate the Jeff City area was last spring with no fatalities.
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Post by unclesam6 on Mar 3, 2020 17:54:01 GMT -6
One of our mets said this was one of the soundings they sent up yesterday -- working to confirm the source i.imgur.com/Z8wSwHm.png |
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Post by maddogchief on Mar 3, 2020 18:50:22 GMT -6
This viral flu like crap can go away. you too? Yup. Doc put me on Tamiflu. I’ll feel good for about an hour or two then back in the toilet. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Mar 3, 2020 19:30:30 GMT -6
Yup. Doc put me on Tamiflu. I’ll feel good for about an hour or two then back in the toilet. They put me on that yesterday too. That stuff really messed with my stomach. Feel better! |
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Post by maddogchief on Mar 3, 2020 19:42:33 GMT -6
Yup. Doc put me on Tamiflu. I’ll feel good for about an hour or two then back in the toilet. They put me on that yesterday too. That stuff really messed with my stomach. Feel better! Same to you! |
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Post by toddatfarmington on Mar 3, 2020 21:35:52 GMT -6
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Mar 4, 2020 4:38:26 GMT -6
Nasty looking tornado warned cell down in Mississippi
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 4, 2020 7:36:15 GMT -6
One of our mets said this was one of the soundings they sent up yesterday -- working to confirm the source i.imgur.com/Z8wSwHm.pngLooks like only about 300j/kg MUCAPE and 20-30kts bulk shear...wonder if storm interaction or some other meso/storm scale enhancement was in play considering that. |
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Post by snowjunky on Mar 4, 2020 8:00:13 GMT -6
Get better Chris. No need to rush back, your team is doing a great job filling in while you recover.
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Post by cardsnweather on Mar 4, 2020 8:17:53 GMT -6
Looks like some snow chances may be possible middle of next week. We will get some cold by end of the month. I will guarantee that.
On the other hand, does anyone know where this winter (Dec 21-Current) ranks as far as warm meteorological winters go?
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Post by REB on Mar 4, 2020 9:47:37 GMT -6
Chris,
Are you feeling any better? It sounds like the bug really knocked you for a loop.
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Post by unclesam6 on Mar 4, 2020 10:38:04 GMT -6
00z sounding from OHX.
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Post by unclesam6 on Mar 4, 2020 10:45:36 GMT -6
Looks like some snow chances may be possible middle of next week. We will get some cold by end of the month. I will guarantee that. On the other hand, does anyone know where this winter (Dec 21-Current) ranks as far as warm meteorological winters go? |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 4, 2020 11:09:29 GMT -6
Looks like some snow chances may be possible middle of next week. We will get some cold by end of the month. I will guarantee that. On the other hand, does anyone know where this winter (Dec 21-Current) ranks as far as warm meteorological winters go? Don't see a whole lot of support for that...the -PNA is going to make it tough for any appreciable cold air to spill southward. Not quite ready to call it...but winter may be done. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Mar 4, 2020 11:34:58 GMT -6
Looks like some snow chances may be possible middle of next week. We will get some cold by end of the month. I will guarantee that. On the other hand, does anyone know where this winter (Dec 21-Current) ranks as far as warm meteorological winters go? Don't see a whole lot of support for that...the -PNA is going to make it tough for any appreciable cold air to spill southward. Not quite ready to call it...but winter may be done. Operational models are bringing cold air down, but it looks to favor the east coast. Definitely some interesting runs, but probably more exciting for Boston than any of us |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 4, 2020 12:03:55 GMT -6
Don't see a whole lot of support for that...the -PNA is going to make it tough for any appreciable cold air to spill southward. Not quite ready to call it...but winter may be done. Operational models are bringing cold air down, but it looks to favor the east coast. Definitely some interesting runs, but probably more exciting for Boston than any of us Yeah the front towards the middle part of the week looks to possibly backdoor us...but any cold is glancing and short lived. |
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