Chris's Corner - The February Funk

Either way the vegetation is gonna start popping with this weather this week.

Allergy numbers are already popping! Tress have been moderate/high this week.

Are there any MASTER excel/macro/vba folks out in this group?
I need some high level help with a project I'm playing around with.

PM me if you think you can help

Chris

Back at you "code monkey" That's your new nickname

From the NWSCPC today. March looks like it’s going to be warm. 

Chris posted this 3 years ago. Time flies.
Fox2Now #stlwx #mowx #perryville #tornado
The final write-up has been released from the National Weather Service office out of Paducah reguarding the Perryville tornado. It includes much more detail.

Rating: EF-4
Estimated peak wind: 180 mph
Path length /Statute/: 50.4 miles
Path width /Maximum/: 0.6 miles
Fatalities: 1
Injuries: 12

Start date: February 28
Start time: 7:55 PM CST
Start location: 4.8 miles WNW of Perryville, Missouri

End date: February 28
End time: 8:57 PM CST
End location: 1.8 miles SW of Christopher, Illinois

The tornado quickly became violent reaching EF-4 intensity and
leveling 5 homes, as well as other structures, just west of I-55,
about 3.5 miles northwest of Perryville, Missouri. This is in the
Kyle Lane and County Road 806 area. Numerous uninhabited cars
from a salvage yard were blown into or over I-55. The lone
fatality occurred when an I-55 southbound vehicle was intercepted
by the tornado. As the tornado tore east, it caused the area of
greatest home and property destruction 3 miles north of
Perryville, in the vicinity of U.S. Highway 61 and Moore Drive.
Three homes were leveled on the west side of U.S. Highway 61 with
dozens of other homes and structures destroyed. Several of the
injuries occurred in this area. In addition to the leveled homes
in Perry County, at least 100 other homes received moderate to
major damage. As the tornado continued east across Perry County,
it leveled or nearly leveled 2 additional homes and destroyed
numerous other homes and structures. The tornado reached its
greatest width as it approached the Mississippi River where a
damage swath 0.6 miles wide was measured. The tornado damage path
also exhibited multiple vortex characteristics at this point,
yielding three distinct convergent areas within the parent vortex.
This was also indicated via ground striations, or disturbance
marks to bare ground, just west of the Mississippi River. The
tornado then ripped across the southern tip of Randolph County
Illinois just south of Rockwood. It then continued its ENE path
across Jackson County Illinois passing just south of Ava,
Illinois and immediately south of Vergennes, Illinois. Many
thousands of large trees were snapped and uprooted, and dozens of
homes and other structures were damaged or destroyed across
Jackson and Franklin Counties. The tornado remained very intense
and wide (at least 1/3 mile) nearly leveling a home as it passed
between Elkville and Dowell, Illinois and into Franklin County
with unabating intensity. A house was leveled 1.75 miles south of
Mulkeytown. Very soon thereafter the tornado began to rapidly
weaken, before dissipating 1.8 miles southwest of Christopher. The
tornado lasted an astounding 1 hour and 2 minutes and was the
longest track tornado in the coverage area of NWS Paducah since
another EF-4 tornado back on April 22, 1981.

Cookeville tornado is separate from the Nashville tornado. Just now Nashville NWS announced a preliminary rating of EF-4 to the Cookeville tornado.

It's odd, though not surprising I guess, that Nashville is getting all the attention, but the Cookeville tornado resulted in 18 of the fatalities and the damage looked much worse (at least to me).  It was the aerial images of the Cookeville tornado where many homes appeared to be nearly, or completely in some cases, swept from foundations with pulverized debris fields.

Chris, check your PMs please

Will be interesting to see when/where the Cookeville survey places the start time & damage path. I believe the tornado warning was issued at 1:48am and by that time the tornado may have already been on the ground. Anyway looking at radar, I think subjectively it would have been tough to issue a warning much earlier than 1:46 though. Now I saw one picture with catastrophic damage where I think I was able to identify the precise location and that matched up with rotation at about 1:51am. So some of these locations unfortunately may have had very little warning. Just about the worst possible situation...rapidly developing violent tornado at 2am.

Edit: Just a clarification, there was a severe T-storm warning for the area much earlier so I don't want to imply there was little warning of any type.

Yeah... that's tough territory for radar coverage. Kind of like being out in COU...halfway between EAX and LSX. I looked at the radar and until the CC plume popped up, I didn't see anything that would scream large/destructive tornado. The couplet tightened rapidly, but it was not nearly as impressive as what was seen near Nashville.

One thing I checked was elevation...and there is a pretty substantial increase in elevation of about 500 feet between Baxter Valley (~500 feet) and Cooksville (~1100 feet). I have to wonder if that played a roll in the sudden resurgence of the mesocyclone/tornado. There has been some research done that would suggest an opposite affect. When tornado emerge into a valley, they should (in theory) intensify as the vorticity gets stretched through a deeper layer. Going up hill should constrict the circulation and weaken the circulation to some degree (again... in theory). However, in a case where you have limited instability and strong LL shear... I have to wonder if the increase in elevation was just enough to allow a somewhat elevated mesocylone to more easily "drill down" to the surface? Just one of many questions about this storm outbreak. Lots to learn for sure. This will be studied for a LOOOOONG time.

There has been some conversation as to whether there was a seperate tornado that hit Cookeville TN. Based on the pic in this NSSL Twitter link that has some help. I an not sure but it looks like after the tornado went through Wilson County, the storm right turned and tracked NE again. Could be the same tornado, maybe not. Thoughts?

Reread your comment weaxweather and I think I may have misinterpreted what you were saying. Yes tornado in Putnam County (Cookeville area) is being treated as a different tornado than the one that went through Wilson County (which I believe the survey actually showed ended near Gordonsville). Now as I said, I think there could have actually been 2 separate tornadoes just in the Cookeville area, but I want to go back and double check the radar.


Here's a link to the ongoing survey information:


www.weather.gov/ohx/DamageSurveysfromMarch3

GFS looks at least halfway interesting for some stormy junk with in the next 7-10 days.

We would need a negative tilt or diving northern stream wave, as the cold air is quickly shuttled north and east of the region.

Rain and mud incoming.