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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 9, 2020 10:32:31 GMT -6
12z gfs brings a couple inches of snow to the southern metro Saturday evening Some support for that starting to show up on the euro ensembles |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Mar 9, 2020 10:34:03 GMT -6
12z gfs brings a couple inches of snow to the southern metro Saturday evening Some support for that starting to show up on the euro ensembles Ukmet has been killing it lately, so I’m rolling with whatever it says. My guess is a band from Kirksville-Peoria that drops 2-5 inches |
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Post by unclesam6 on Mar 9, 2020 11:07:52 GMT -6
GEM locks up with the 12z* UKIE
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 9, 2020 11:08:15 GMT -6
Ukie still looks like its hinting at severe weather Thursday
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Post by Snowman99 on Mar 9, 2020 11:20:12 GMT -6
Not as wet today as I expected. More solid area moving in now though. Maybe the incredibly dry air the last couple of days helped out.
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Post by Tilawn on Mar 9, 2020 11:37:45 GMT -6
The rain shield seems to fall apart to an extent as each wave moves in. Kinda sucks because I didn’t plan any jobs for today when I could have worked in between showers so far.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Mar 9, 2020 12:02:14 GMT -6
Few gusts of wind here in the 40+ range. I knew it was supposed to be breezy but that was more than I expected
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 9, 2020 12:23:29 GMT -6
Ukie still looks like its hinting at severe weather Thursday Euro has decent SB Cape Thursday  |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Mar 9, 2020 12:28:24 GMT -6
Some support for that starting to show up on the euro ensembles Ukmet has been killing it lately, so I’m rolling with whatever it says. My guess is a band from Kirksville-Peoria that drops 2-5 inches Thats probably my guess too, although i might go with lesser amts at this stage of the game for that area, and possibly a few pings of sleet mixing in as far south as Bowling Green and maybe troy. Longer term, there looks to be some possibility of cool wx late march into early april. Sustained warmth may not take hold until after first week of april. All in all, nothing really all that abnormal for this part of the country. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 9, 2020 12:31:43 GMT -6
Some support for that starting to show up on the euro ensembles Ukmet has been killing it lately, so I’m rolling with whatever it says. My guess is a band from Kirksville-Peoria that drops 2-5 inches That’s exactly what the euro shows. Good call |
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Mar 9, 2020 14:29:20 GMT -6
What’s the severe weather chances looking like for this evening. NWS keeps posting about it but I haven’t seen anyone else say much.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 9, 2020 14:32:05 GMT -6
What’s the severe weather chances looking like for this evening. NWS keeps posting about it but I haven’t seen anyone else say much. Looks very marginal...clouds are pretty well socked in across the region along with a rain cooled airmass...going to be tough to get any destabilization. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Mar 9, 2020 14:37:28 GMT -6
It's a nasty enough day as it is. I'm glad it's not 20* colder. It would feel like November again.
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Mar 9, 2020 14:43:14 GMT -6
What’s the severe weather chances looking like for this evening. NWS keeps posting about it but I haven’t seen anyone else say much. Looks very marginal...clouds are pretty well socked in across the region along with a rain cooled airmass...going to be tough to get any destabilization. Thanks. That’s what I thought also. |
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Mar 9, 2020 16:52:04 GMT -6
Well there are a few thunder showers lining up In SW MO.
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Post by Tilawn on Mar 9, 2020 17:33:33 GMT -6
So far .22” most fell mid afternoon
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Post by ndolan387 on Mar 9, 2020 20:18:12 GMT -6
The SPC doesn't seem to jazzed about the severe weather potential on Thurs, but we are still a little under 3 days out. There's still some wiggle room for the mesoscale ingredients to change a little. Moving on, yeah that's a nice negative tilt little ripple in the upper level flow for Fri into Sat. A quick hit of wet snow Sat evening. Very marginal setup and the ripple looks to enter and leave our region very quickly! Not much to write home about other than it's the atmosphere reminding us winter isn't done.
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Mar 9, 2020 20:56:25 GMT -6
Pretty good downpour here
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Mar 10, 2020 7:54:12 GMT -6
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 10, 2020 11:00:24 GMT -6
GFS still has a band of slushy snow across the N counties Saturday and sets up a prolific rainfall event next week with deep SW flow and tons of energy digging into the SW.
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Post by unclesam6 on Mar 10, 2020 11:03:59 GMT -6
GFS still has a band of slushy snow across the N counties Saturday and sets up a prolific rainfall event next week with deep SW flow and tons of energy digging into the SW. Pretty big shift north from the UKIE tho. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Mar 10, 2020 11:05:43 GMT -6
last nights ukie looks pretty close to what 12z gefs is printing out.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 10, 2020 11:06:25 GMT -6
GFS still has a band of slushy snow across the N counties Saturday and sets up a prolific rainfall event next week with deep SW flow and tons of energy digging into the SW. Pretty big shift north from the UKIE tho. That wouldn't surprise me...the shortwave is cresting an amplifying ridge so cold air may not be able to stay entrenched this far south despite the confluence across the lakes. |
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Post by bdgwx on Mar 10, 2020 11:08:23 GMT -6
That the global positioning system (GPS) can be exploited to measure the properties of the atmosphere and use those measurements to better forecast the weather is truly awesome. |
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Post by jmg378s on Mar 10, 2020 11:45:21 GMT -6
That the global positioning system (GPS) can be exploited to measure the properties of the atmosphere and use those measurements to better forecast the weather is truly awesome. I doubt anyone designing GPS back in the 70s ever considered that in the future we would be building separate satellites that make measurements about the GPS signals and feed that data into weather models. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Mar 10, 2020 11:54:00 GMT -6
GFS...sure is moist over the next 10 days. Yikes.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 10, 2020 12:03:48 GMT -6
GFS...sure is moist over the next 10 days. Yikes. Euro ensembles are very wet to. I foresee some flooding issues in the near future |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Mar 10, 2020 12:24:09 GMT -6
GFS still has a band of slushy snow across the N counties Saturday and sets up a prolific rainfall event next week with deep SW flow and tons of energy digging into the SW. It’s ensembles don’t agree with it. Ukmet and euro are north with the snow band. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 10, 2020 12:29:34 GMT -6
GFS still has a band of slushy snow across the N counties Saturday and sets up a prolific rainfall event next week with deep SW flow and tons of energy digging into the SW. It’s ensembles don’t agree with it. Ukmet and euro are north with the snow band. I'm not writing off the potential, but a continued N shift would not surprise me. Much more interested and concerned with the heavy rain/flooding/severe potential next week with models showing a firehose setup across the central US. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Mar 10, 2020 12:42:58 GMT -6
It’s ensembles don’t agree with it. Ukmet and euro are north with the snow band. I'm not writing off the potential, but a continued N shift would not surprise me. Much more interested and concerned with the heavy rain/flooding/severe potential next week with models showing a firehose setup across the central US. It looks similar to the setup in I believe mid March 2008(?), though this one could have some more thunderstorms in the mix. That was a classic stationary conveyor belt of rain for several days. |
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