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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 23, 2020 14:37:41 GMT -6
18z nam brings a period of snow through the metro Wednesday morning.
Time of day would likely enable accumulation on grassy and elevated surfaces.
Once you get to the end of February, you have to treat every chance of snow as potentially the last of the season.
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Post by ElburnDave on Feb 23, 2020 14:43:11 GMT -6
Have to pick the wife up at O’hare Wednesday at 7pm. Not looking forward to that drive, assuming the flight isn’t cancelled. Suppose there are worse places to be stuck than St. Pete Beach!
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 23, 2020 14:49:52 GMT -6
Have to pick the wife up at O’hare Wednesday at 7pm. Not looking forward to that drive, assuming the flight isn’t cancelled. Suppose there are worse places to be stuck than St. Pete Beach! Sref plume mean is up to 6.5 inches at O’hare. Range is impressive among members: Minimum: 0 inches Maximum: 17 inches. Obviously, compaction and melting will limit snow depth to probably half of whatever actually falls. Still, expect the NWS to ramp up forecast quickly. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 23, 2020 15:43:11 GMT -6
WSC and Elburn, here's the Cobb method meteogram for Midway that factors in compaction (dashed lines) for the 12z NAM and GFS. Very large differences between that and the traditional 10:1 output  |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 23, 2020 16:07:50 GMT -6
Some high snow squall parameters showing up around here Wednesday on the NAM  |
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Post by cozpregon on Feb 23, 2020 16:32:51 GMT -6
That jet rounding the trough the NAM shows would certainly support that
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Post by jeffcobeeman on Feb 23, 2020 18:09:09 GMT -6
So when does the blow torch and drought set in? Tomorrow would be good for me. Bought a new boat, and ready to get it out on the water. I'm finished with this winter. Ready for spring to set in and fry crappie and morels!
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Post by pbc12871 on Feb 23, 2020 18:40:34 GMT -6
I second being done with this winter. I am ready for morel hunting, walking creeks,and fishing. Certainly more satisfying than watching the tenth high qpf air snow of the season.
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 23, 2020 18:45:59 GMT -6
18z euro moved south. This one isn’t over yet even though i do agree with being done with this winter.
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Post by snowjunky on Feb 23, 2020 19:01:36 GMT -6
Wonder when TWC will head to Chicago. 😂
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 23, 2020 20:31:51 GMT -6
Ryan Maue is calling out the “Kuchera” snowfall ratio method.
Anyone know if it’s really that flawed?
He is posting a “Dynamic snowfall” calculation. No idea how it works, but seems way too bullish in my opinion
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 23, 2020 20:46:38 GMT -6
Maue's ego is way too big for his small head
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 23, 2020 20:51:27 GMT -6
Maue's ego is way too big for his small head It is incredible. If you can scroll through all his BS, occasionally you find something good. It’s tough though because he is purposely inflammatory and ignorant |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 23, 2020 20:55:58 GMT -6
Kuchera is definitely flawed, but every snow ratio method is to some extent. I think bdgwx mentioned the Cobb method is usually the most accurate
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 23, 2020 21:02:46 GMT -6
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 23, 2020 21:05:44 GMT -6
Maue's ego is way too big for his small head It is incredible. If you can scroll through all his BS, occasionally you find something good. It’s tough though because he is purposely inflammatory and ignorant He blocked me on twitter a couple years ago, so I don't have the privilege of scrolling thru his diarrhea. |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Feb 23, 2020 21:18:14 GMT -6
Anybody having issues with Radarscope? I'm getting a download error this evening.
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Post by jmg378s on Feb 23, 2020 21:29:23 GMT -6
Kuchera method isn't that good. Probably better than flat 10:1 though. I think it uses the max temperature up to 500mb to calculate the ratio and that's way too simplistic. A lot of snow ratio also depends both the lift and saturation in the DGZ along with a bunch of other factors.
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Post by ndolan387 on Feb 23, 2020 22:32:14 GMT -6
A nice negative tilt on the 500mb flow for Tues-Wed. Steep lapse rates and cyclonic flow...although omega doesn't look that great. Looks like whatever mood setting you want snow. Otherwise, the pattern into the first 10 days (really later on too) of March looks ripe for a snowstorm.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Feb 24, 2020 1:28:22 GMT -6
I don't see any lightning bolts on Radarscope. But I could swear I just heard thunder.
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Post by amstilost on Feb 24, 2020 8:04:25 GMT -6
A quick burst of 1/8-3/16" hail here 7 miles west of de soto. Could have been thunder you heard. A few darker red returns on the radar near me. Edit: Although St Pete is a bit far to hear any lightning down this way.  |
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Post by House Springs ~ DeerKiller ~ on Feb 24, 2020 8:18:38 GMT -6
I'm hearing a lot about being done with this winter I'm not sure why so many feel this way but it's not just on this page I own a seasonal business (farmers market) and usually we don't get busy till it's warmer and this year people have a real desire to get out even cold ugly days people are coming out much more regularly and all talking about how much they are looking forward to spring & planting etc. I to want spring to get here as much as the next guy but I would really like to see another 6+ inch storm or two ;-)
As I'm texting it's thundering here in house springs heavy rain as well
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Post by jkfriedmann on Feb 24, 2020 8:19:47 GMT -6
It is absolutely POURING in Eureka, and definitely thundering.
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padlur
Junior Forecaster
Ballwin(by the golf course)
Posts: 304 
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Post by padlur on Feb 24, 2020 8:23:37 GMT -6
Thunder rolling in Ballwin and torrential rain as the skies have opened up.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Feb 24, 2020 8:25:51 GMT -6
Nam has a different look to it this morning. Overall a bit weaker storm and has the snowfield expanded south a bit. Would give metro and even a bit south a shot at an inch or two.
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 24, 2020 8:27:33 GMT -6
Definitely could be some heavy snow flying around here Wednesday morning.
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Post by pbc12871 on Feb 24, 2020 8:34:24 GMT -6
Definitely a major deluge a few minutes ago in Ballwin.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 24, 2020 8:46:06 GMT -6
Nam has a different look to it this morning. Overall a bit weaker storm and has the snowfield expanded south a bit. Would give metro and even a bit south a shot at an inch or two. It is amazing how much the models are moving this storm. Also, haven’t seen a single deformation zone be robust this year, so I’m not getting hyped for this one. Clipper later in the week could be in play for the metro though |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Feb 24, 2020 8:51:40 GMT -6
Several low rumbles of thunder in Northeast St. Peters in the last half hour.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 24, 2020 9:01:55 GMT -6
Saw several flashes of lightning on the drive into downtown
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