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Post by STGOutdoors on Feb 24, 2020 9:08:03 GMT -6
WSC I hope you get dumped on. But I agree I would be cautiously optimistic with the robust, pivoting def. band the models are showing. It hasn't happened yet this year.
My gut tells me this is the one you've been waiting for though.
Is there any concern about the flow coming off the lake (warm)? Or in this case might that enhance the snow bands?
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 24, 2020 9:20:07 GMT -6
WSC I hope you get dumped on. But I agree I would be cautiously optimistic with the robust, pivoting def. band the models are showing. It hasn't happened yet this year. My gut tells me this is the one you've been waiting for though. Is there any concern about the flow coming off the lake (warm)? Or in this case might that enhance the snow bands? It should enhance it some assuming it doesn’t trend any weaker or south. Lake temps are in the mid 30s, so it could be an issue until tomorrow night though. Latest sref plumes are around 1 inch at KSTL and 2 inches for Springfield, Illinois. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Feb 24, 2020 9:25:53 GMT -6
One could argue that there are already some signs the def. band isn't going to be as intense as it looked yesterday (NAM, RGEM, ICON).
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 24, 2020 9:31:56 GMT -6
One could argue that there are already some signs the def. band isn't going to be as intense as it looked yesterday (NAM, RGEM, ICON). You should see the 6z euro... Vomit inducing |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 24, 2020 9:44:36 GMT -6
One could argue that there are already some signs the def. band isn't going to be as intense as it looked yesterday (NAM, RGEM, ICON). The mid-level low isn't closing off like before and looks more sheared...hence the weaker deformation. I'm not convinced models are handling the transfer of energy well yet. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 24, 2020 10:25:50 GMT -6
A tweet I saw, TWC has 8-12 for Chicago, get ready for The Cantore Visit, WSC.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Feb 24, 2020 10:53:03 GMT -6
One could argue that there are already some signs the def. band isn't going to be as intense as it looked yesterday (NAM, RGEM, ICON). The mid-level low isn't closing off like before and looks more sheared...hence the weaker deformation. I'm not convinced models are handling the transfer of energy well yet. Agree. While it's fairly unlikely, I also wouldn't be surprised to see a decent snow band set up over the metro. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 24, 2020 11:08:16 GMT -6
Ukie brings some decent snow to the area. It’s been the furthest south solution for a day or two now. Seems like the other models are trending towards it
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 24, 2020 11:09:02 GMT -6
A tweet I saw, TWC has 8-12 for Chicago, get ready for The Cantore Visit, WSC. I’ll let you know how hard that busts lol. Ukmet is performing at a very high level of late |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 24, 2020 11:14:32 GMT -6
There’s been a huge shift south in the GEFS over the past few runs. Not sure I’m 100% buying it but hard to ignore the trend
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Post by ElburnDave on Feb 24, 2020 11:14:36 GMT -6
A tweet I saw, TWC has 8-12 for Chicago, get ready for The Cantore Visit, WSC. I’ll let you know how hard that busts lol. Ukmet is performing at a very high level of late How bad does it look to bust, WSC? Wife has already re-booked her return flight for Thursday and booked a hotel for Wednesday night. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 24, 2020 11:14:55 GMT -6
This isn't an 8-12" storm anywhere, IMO...been seeing some big numbers being put out that are unrealistic.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 24, 2020 11:19:03 GMT -6
Right now I think it's likely that the initial deformation band across N/central IL weakens and re-develops further S in response to the digging and pivoting mid-level shortwave/low. Some of the models show a very favorable track of the vort max to our SE...albeit becoming sheared with time.
I think the possibility of 1-3" is very much in play for the N half of the area including the immediate Metro...with some good wind blown SNSH on Wednesday.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 24, 2020 11:20:52 GMT -6
This isn't an 8-12" storm anywhere, IMO...been seeing some big numbers being put out that are unrealistic. Euro snow depth has been maxing out around 4-5” for the storm. That seems reasonable |
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Post by landscaper on Feb 24, 2020 11:23:01 GMT -6
Unfortunately, the old UKMET has been too juiced for the last few storms. It has had accumulation of 1-3” the last few storms and we got next to nothing. I don’t see the metro getting The 2” it shows, this looks like a classic 1” or less on grass maybe a dusting-1/4” on pavement if it snows hard enough at night. The ground will be pretty warm and temps will be around freezing. I could see a 4-7” band somewhere by Chicago
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 24, 2020 11:26:45 GMT -6
I wish I had the time to do a thorough analysis of what I'm looking at but basically, I think models are focusing too much energy with the lead wave and not enough with the digging wave ejecting out...that transfer of energy is often not handled well by models until it's practically hapenning.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 24, 2020 11:27:25 GMT -6
I’ll let you know how hard that busts lol. Ukmet is performing at a very high level of late How bad does it look to bust, WSC? Wife has already re-booked her return flight for Thursday and booked a hotel for Wednesday night. I think the northern suburbs might go from winter storm watch to an inch or less of actual snow. Downtown maybe 2-4 inches if you believe the models have over corrected a bit. Southern suburbs maybe 3-6 inches the further east you go. I totally could see you and me seeing very little considering trends this morning |
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Post by ElburnDave on Feb 24, 2020 11:34:49 GMT -6
Yikes! Thanks.
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 24, 2020 11:37:41 GMT -6
Going to be a wet start to March it looks like. Someone in midwest will get a nice, heavy snow...
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Post by amstilost on Feb 24, 2020 11:42:26 GMT -6
I noticed that Davenport Disco trimmed some of their WSW to the south from yesterday's maps. It will be interesting to see their afternoon Disco.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 24, 2020 11:52:08 GMT -6
This isn't an 8-12" storm anywhere, IMO...been seeing some big numbers being put out that are unrealistic. I really like the 5-7 I posted in the max band this morning. Between compaction, time of day...air modification near the Lake/Marginal temperatures... I have a tough time seeing ability to measure those big numbers. As for us... the track of the 500mb, 700mb, 850mb centers all point to a swath from near Quincy up to vicinity of Chicago. South of that track, we will get some light snow, snow showers/squally type precip...but wet/warm ground and marginal temperatures...I see very little support for anything sticking this far south. Bowling Green over to Jacksonville, IL... yes...down here...maybe enough for a thin slushy coating on car tops, on mulch, etc |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 24, 2020 11:58:31 GMT -6
This isn't an 8-12" storm anywhere, IMO...been seeing some big numbers being put out that are unrealistic. I really like the 5-7 I posted in the max band this morning. Between compaction, time of day...air modification near the Lake/Marginal temperatures... I have a tough time seeing ability to measure those big numbers. As for us... the track of the 500mb, 700mb, 850mb centers all point to a swath from near Quincy up to vicinity of Chicago. South of that track, we will get some light snow, snow showers/squally type precip...but wet/warm ground and marginal temperatures...I see very little support for anything sticking this far south. Bowling Green over to Jacksonville, IL... yes...down here...maybe enough for a thin slushy coating on car tops, on mulch, etc Time of day will be a limiting factor for sure...NAM forecast wetbulbs are below freezing Tuesday PM into Wednesday along and N of 70 though so I do think we could get some accumulation if that verifies and precip rates overcome the warm ground. Definitely another borderline setup though...same old story. |
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Post by Tilawn on Feb 24, 2020 12:02:49 GMT -6
Both trucks.........still don’t have a plow or spreader on them. Of course one is in the shop for some fairly major engine repairs but at this point I don’t see this even being a chemical application for my clients
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 24, 2020 12:06:01 GMT -6
euro has an inch or 2 in stl metro area
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 24, 2020 12:08:21 GMT -6
Euro snow depth  |
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Post by maddogchief on Feb 24, 2020 12:16:15 GMT -6
I don’t think any model has a good handle on this one. But, even if it trends upwards, the impact will still be minimal IMO. Everything is just too warm before and after the storm to have any crippling impact. Some have mentioned that the pattern has changed, but I’m not really seeing it. Everything is still exactly where it has been for the majority of the winter.
Until a storm comes through with completely different teleconnections and MJO will I expect a different outcome.
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Post by unclesam6 on Feb 24, 2020 12:27:20 GMT -6
where's that one nuisance guy at
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 24, 2020 12:33:36 GMT -6
where's that one nuisance guy at Um..semi permanent vacay? |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 24, 2020 12:35:46 GMT -6
Still some very high snow squall parameters snowing up Wednesday afternoon and evening   |
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Post by ndolan387 on Feb 24, 2020 13:01:51 GMT -6
This isn't an 8-12" storm anywhere, IMO...been seeing some big numbers being put out that are unrealistic. I can't remember over the last 5 years when TWC was right or somewhat accurate with a snowstorm forecast. |
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