|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 25, 2020 9:08:23 GMT -6
Timing is starting to look favorable for severe wx here Saturday with the dryline/PAC front moving through late afternoon/early evening...EURO shows 1500j/kg+ SBCAPE in the warm sector with strong shear in place. The question is how much precip/cloud debris will exist in the warm sector...GFS has quite a bit more cloudiness and precip than the EURO. This has potential to be a sizeable outbreak, IMO.
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 25, 2020 9:11:21 GMT -6
Also of subtle interest is that the EURO has been persistent in developing a phased mid-level low across the region towards the 1st of April with a deep cyclone developing to our SE that would likely drop wet snow on it's cold side. GFS is somewhat similar but doesn't phase streams until it's well off to the east. Just something to keep an eye on in the coming days.
|
|
|
|
Post by jeepers on Mar 25, 2020 14:07:07 GMT -6
My windows are open and it's GLORIOUS. Saying in the moment, while it lasts.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 25, 2020 15:40:49 GMT -6
18z NAM looks volatile across northern Illinois Saturday. Day 4 SPC outlook isn’t looking to hot
|
|
|
|
Post by RyanD on Mar 25, 2020 17:11:20 GMT -6
|
|
|
|
Post by cozpregon on Mar 25, 2020 21:15:42 GMT -6
Saturday is looking metro and east for severe from a Wednesday point of view
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 25, 2020 22:00:54 GMT -6
Check out this totally cherry picked sounding west of Chicago Saturday afternoon  |
|
|
|
Post by unclesam6 on Mar 25, 2020 22:08:14 GMT -6
|
|
|
|
Post by Tilawn on Mar 26, 2020 7:27:03 GMT -6
Rain with big drops and little thunder this morning.
Marthasville
|
|
|
|
Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Mar 26, 2020 7:28:57 GMT -6
Well that popped up quickly.
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 26, 2020 7:32:51 GMT -6
Check out this totally cherry picked sounding west of Chicago Saturday afternoon Yikes! I see SPC added a SLGT risk across central IL with the latest outlook for Saturday. |
|
|
|
Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Mar 26, 2020 7:45:47 GMT -6
Just had some pea size hail move through with that small cell heading into St. Louis County.
|
|
|
|
Post by WEAXWATCHER on Mar 26, 2020 8:11:20 GMT -6
Looks like gravity waves on radar.
|
|
|
|
Post by cardsnweather on Mar 26, 2020 8:19:05 GMT -6
Where the heck did this come from
|
|
|
|
Post by red12 Hillsboro,mo on Mar 26, 2020 8:27:14 GMT -6
Chris you nailed this rain shower this morning nice job
|
|
|
|
Post by Tilawn on Mar 26, 2020 9:12:44 GMT -6
Kinda........humid today
|
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Mar 26, 2020 9:28:14 GMT -6
Chris you nailed this rain shower this morning nice job Thanks Red. Funny...I just got an email from an unhappy vierwer saying Im always wrong and today was another example. I just scratched my head. |
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 26, 2020 10:03:40 GMT -6
Could see some hailers around here late tonight
|
|
|
|
Post by maddogchief on Mar 26, 2020 10:09:59 GMT -6
Chris you nailed this rain shower this morning nice job Thanks Red. Funny...I just got an email from an unhappy vierwer saying Im always wrong and today was another example. I just scratched my head. That’s where the hair has gone... |
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 26, 2020 10:48:52 GMT -6
Could see some hailers around here late tonight SPC expanded the slight risk to include most of the metro
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 26, 2020 10:53:13 GMT -6
Could see some hailers around here late tonight Model consensus tracks the MCS centroid right down 70 overnight...could get pretty noisy. And it looks like the lifting warm front will light up tomorrow if destabilization occurs. Thinking there could be a few nasty supercells around tomorrow afternoon. |
|
|
|
Post by jmg378s on Mar 26, 2020 11:21:26 GMT -6
Looking just a bit further out there are some big differences between the UKMET and GFS on Saturday. UK has the cold front/dryline in central MO Sat late afternoon & early evening with a big outbreak while the GFS has it in eastern IL and more subdued. I suspect the UK is too slow and amped and the GFS too fast and tame....maybe the Euro comes in somewhere in between?
In any case looks like we'll have at least 2 opportunities if not 3 for severe weather over the next few days.
|
|
|
|
Post by WEAXWATCHER on Mar 26, 2020 11:32:43 GMT -6
We've been socked in the clouds and it doesn't look like it will allow the sun to come out.
|
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Mar 26, 2020 11:48:01 GMT -6
We've been socked in the clouds and it doesn't look like it will allow the sun to come out. It is coming... hang in. |
|
|
|
Post by bellevillewxguy on Mar 26, 2020 11:53:11 GMT -6
Sunglasses standing by... XD
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 26, 2020 12:01:10 GMT -6
We've been socked in the clouds and it doesn't look like it will allow the sun to come out. Pretty cloudy here but looking at satellite, SE KS and W MO is getting broken sunshine and destabilizing somewhat. That will be the genesis region for storms later today into tonight. Tomorrow, models develop quite a bit of SBCAPE in the warm sector with 50kts+ of westerly bulk shear. So if storms develop, there's a good chance they will rotate and become supercells. Saturday still shows some timing issues, but even the slower GFS fires storms just to the west of the metro into IL. Still looking like another active day that bears close watching for sure. |
|
|
|
Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Mar 26, 2020 12:16:11 GMT -6
We've been socked in the clouds and it doesn't look like it will allow the sun to come out. It is coming... hang in. Been wondering about that. If we don't get some sun there's no way we make 70. |
|
|
|
Post by bdgwx on Mar 26, 2020 12:22:55 GMT -6
That's a great looking dryline on the UKMET. The 0-6km shear vector across the boundary is a little shallow, but it's also off-the-charts strong and PWATs are low so I suspect there'd be a decent chance supercells would remain discrete and maybe even isolated. There's plenty of 1km SRH and 3km CAPE so that's a pretty primed atmosphere on the UKMET for Saturday.
|
|
|
|
Post by ajd446 on Mar 26, 2020 12:42:03 GMT -6
73 now in st.peters
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 26, 2020 12:42:19 GMT -6
Also of note on the UKIE, it has training storms for the metro points north tomorrow night. That would be a serious flash flood threat along with a severe weather threat
|
|
