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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 26, 2020 13:49:23 GMT -6
NWS saying baseball size hail possible in central Mo tonight with golf ball size possible further east
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Mar 26, 2020 14:16:43 GMT -6
NWS saying baseball size hail possible in central Mo tonight with golf ball size possible further east Setup is very similar to I believe was May 2010 or was it 2011 when a couple of very discrete supercells rode down I-70 into I-64 dropping very large hail up to tennis ball size and lightning that was almost non-stop almost like a strobe light that was around 2-4AM in the morning except this time it looks like it'll be more closer to sunrise at least for the immediate metro area. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Mar 26, 2020 14:19:22 GMT -6
HRRR and NAM has been quite constant with a couple of discrete cells riding down along or just north of I-70/I-64 so there definitely is some potential.
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Mar 26, 2020 15:25:22 GMT -6
My truck says it’s 82° not sure if that’s true or not but it definitely is humid
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Mar 26, 2020 15:30:26 GMT -6
I was able to get the yard mowed. It didnt really rain hard here this morning. It isnt very humid either. The sun is out but covered by a sheet of stratus. Temp is maybe 71. Comfy.
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Post by unclesam6 on Mar 26, 2020 16:37:10 GMT -6
82* @ KJEF.
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csafozzie
Wishcaster
Wildwood, MO. Jefferson, Franklin and St Louis County borders
Posts: 139
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Post by csafozzie on Mar 26, 2020 16:51:03 GMT -6
Anyone else having issues with bugs, small gnat like bugs. A bit bigger than gnats, about mosquito size but not mosquitoes, thank God. Every time I step into the yard I get covered with them, making yard work almost impossible. I would take a picture but I really don't feel like going out there again.  |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 26, 2020 17:44:03 GMT -6
We've been socked in the clouds and it doesn't look like it will allow the sun to come out. Pretty cloudy here but looking at satellite, SE KS and W MO is getting broken sunshine and destabilizing somewhat. That will be the genesis region for storms later today into tonight. Tomorrow, models develop quite a bit of SBCAPE in the warm sector with 50kts+ of westerly bulk shear. So if storms develop, there's a good chance they will rotate and become supercells. Saturday still shows some timing issues, but even the slower GFS fires storms just to the west of the metro into IL. Still looking like another active day that bears close watching for sure. I was just checking out the RAP for tomorrow and it shows a very favorable environment for supercells/tornadoes along the warm front as its lifting north
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 26, 2020 17:50:52 GMT -6
Yeah, tomorrow could get pretty nasty...the westerly flow and subtle height falls/mid-level cooling makes me think discrete supercells will be the dominant mode and could interact with the warm front where winds are more backed.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Mar 26, 2020 18:02:58 GMT -6
They included us in the slight risk for Saturday, not sure what the update for tomorrow will bring. The slight risk is way west of here.
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Post by ElKay23 - Columbia, IL on Mar 26, 2020 18:20:27 GMT -6
Anyone else having issues with bugs, small gnat like bugs. A bit bigger than gnats, about mosquito size but not mosquitoes, thank God. Every time I step into the yard I get covered with them, making yard work almost impossible. I would take a picture but I really don't feel like going out there again. Not yet, but I remember last year in the spring trying to weed some beds and couldn’t, so seems to me it was a little later. I tried using Deep Woods Off (even on bare skin) and it didn’t repel at all. I was only able to sit outside with a fan going. |
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Post by ajd446 on Mar 26, 2020 19:10:03 GMT -6
Destructive hail likely. All metro in sig severe area tonight now per latest update
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 26, 2020 19:14:08 GMT -6
Good thing I moved the car in the garage
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Post by cozpregon on Mar 26, 2020 20:07:09 GMT -6
Nice temp gradient that low level jet is starting to bump up against.  |
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Post by amstilost on Mar 26, 2020 20:18:05 GMT -6
What a nice day it was.....We got to 80* 7 miles west of De Soto. Finished the electric fence around the garden yesterday, and it works...per the clicking of the energizer...I will assume it is working. Can't bring myself to self-test it.  I will have to order a fence tester. Naturally, the 3 other electrical testers I have apparently will self destruct using them on a fence. Picked up lots of trash and sticks in the yard, planted lots (50) of strawberry plants with the wife. Hopefully the hail stays the hail away. I have not left my house in 12 days. Judging by the soaring positive tests, might need to stay here much longer. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Mar 26, 2020 20:20:56 GMT -6
Most short term meso models show most of the action north of St. Louis tonight, but I'm not biting on that fully just yet. If supercells do materialize they'll likely be some right turners that may drift a bit more south than the HRRR/RAP/NAM show. Pretty much all but the southern most counties are under the gun overnight but the I-70 corridor still looks like the bullseye with a slight drift southeastward into I-64 in Illinois still seems plausible.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Mar 26, 2020 20:26:02 GMT -6
Looks like initiation of storms should happen at anytime between Emperia, KS and Sedalia, MO very soon, the clash between the warm and cold air is quite visible on Rader with echoes moving in from the south and other north of it still tracking largely east. This makes me think that this is where the action should start in the next hour or 2.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Mar 26, 2020 20:30:27 GMT -6
As for Covid-19, the USA now leads the world in the number of total cases surpassing China earlier this evening. A vast majority of the cases are still in New York and New Jersey but it's steadily climbing in Illinois as well particularly in and around Chicago which isn't a surprise.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Mar 26, 2020 20:36:06 GMT -6
Hope nobody had their roofs or gutters recently redone... Gonna be some big time hailers tonight.
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Mar 26, 2020 20:46:22 GMT -6
Hope nobody had their roofs or gutters recently redone... Gonna be some big time hailers tonight. Just power washed our roof Tuesday lol |
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Mar 26, 2020 20:49:14 GMT -6
Hope nobody had their roofs or gutters recently redone... Gonna be some big time hailers tonight. Still haven’t from last year 🤣 |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 26, 2020 21:07:35 GMT -6
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Post by Tilawn on Mar 26, 2020 21:25:12 GMT -6
Hope nobody had their roofs or gutters recently redone... Gonna be some big time hailers tonight. Just power washed our roof Tuesday lol I hope that a metal roof and not shingles |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Mar 26, 2020 21:45:30 GMT -6
Severe Storm Watch up. It includes most of the viewing area and is in effect until 5AM.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Mar 26, 2020 21:47:34 GMT -6
Storms raring in central and east central Kansas now.
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Post by jeepers on Mar 26, 2020 21:58:34 GMT -6
Had all new gutters and downspouts last fall. Yay me.
No hail, please. It’s been a really suck day.
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Post by unclesam6 on Mar 26, 2020 22:34:25 GMT -6
As for Covid-19, the USA now leads the world in the number of total cases surpassing China earlier this evening. A vast majority of the cases are still in New York and New Jersey but it's steadily climbing in Illinois as well particularly in and around Chicago which isn't a surprise. That also depends on which numbers you subscribe to. www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.14.20036178v1 |
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Post by unclesam6 on Mar 26, 2020 22:35:35 GMT -6
Massive blob of hail and rain starting the march down I-70.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Mar 26, 2020 23:07:40 GMT -6
Seems to be some agreement in the models to flip to a -NAO/-AO as we move into April which could allow for some killing freezes and maybe even a light snow or 2. If that's true it would be bad at so many levels. Agriculture for one, and the Pandemic for another as the colder, drier air will allow the virus to continue to spread, and 2020 being 2020 means it'll probably happen...
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Mar 27, 2020 0:06:42 GMT -6
Strong to severe storms are lined up and coming east along I-70 like they had a steering wheel and a gas pedal.
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I will have to order a fence tester. Naturally, the 3 other electrical testers I have apparently will self destruct using them on a fence. Picked up lots of trash and sticks in the yard, planted lots (50) of strawberry plants with the wife. Hopefully the hail stays the hail away. I have not left my house in 12 days. Judging by the soaring positive tests, might need to stay here much longer. 
