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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 27, 2020 0:22:42 GMT -6
Some 70dbz pixels showing up on the cell near Kingdom City. Looks like it’s moving ESE which will take it right through the metro
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 27, 2020 0:25:17 GMT -6
Wow SPC went moderate risk Saturday around Peoria. 15% hatched tornado probability
Soundings definitely support that
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Post by bear1 on Mar 27, 2020 1:01:38 GMT -6
Radar looks to be sporting a tornado cell heading for Wright City?!
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Mar 27, 2020 1:14:34 GMT -6
Training from Warren County to KC. Textbook.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Mar 27, 2020 1:48:56 GMT -6
Big hail. Quarter sized.
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Post by nascarfan999 on Mar 27, 2020 1:52:28 GMT -6
Not sure size yet but ditto. Still ongoing after 5 minutes but finally down to sporadic. Ground is nearly covered but still haven't gone out yet to see size and may not at this point. |
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Post by nascarfan999 on Mar 27, 2020 2:11:37 GMT -6
Not sure size yet but ditto. Still ongoing after 5 minutes but finally down to sporadic. Ground is nearly covered but still haven't gone out yet to see size and may not at this point. Biggest I could see from the porch was also quarter size. Never heard anything like that before. |
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Post by nascarfan999 on Mar 27, 2020 2:24:00 GMT -6
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Mar 27, 2020 2:46:59 GMT -6
You got more than we did. Ours never accumulated. Second round started with a few more quarter sized stones. I had forgotten how nerve wracking big hail like that can be. I just kept waiting for the sound of breaking glass |
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Post by REB on Mar 27, 2020 2:56:51 GMT -6
I sure hope this stays north of me.
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Post by maddogchief on Mar 27, 2020 5:13:15 GMT -6
As for Covid-19, the USA now leads the world in the number of total cases surpassing China earlier this evening. A vast majority of the cases are still in New York and New Jersey but it's steadily climbing in Illinois as well particularly in and around Chicago which isn't a surprise. Let’s just say we are probably being more honest than 2nd place. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Mar 27, 2020 7:00:42 GMT -6
I love it when SPC changes their outlook to look like mine  |
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ilnois
Wishcaster
Columbia, IL
Posts: 123
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Post by ilnois on Mar 27, 2020 7:06:50 GMT -6
I love it when SPC changes their outlook to look like mine Chris - missed your forecast - coverage and timing? |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Mar 27, 2020 7:14:14 GMT -6
I love it when SPC changes their outlook to look like mine Chris - missed your forecast - coverage and timing? late this afternoon into the evening... isolated to scattered... Much of today will be dry... it should be dry everywhere now up through about 3 or 4pm. |
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Post by bdgwx on Mar 27, 2020 8:00:24 GMT -6
12Z HRRR is nasty on Saturday. I mean...just going by the HRRR you'd have to at least entertain a high risk. Don't get me wrong...I would never throw all my eggs in one basket and actually call a high risk especially at this stage. I'm just saying...
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Post by weatherj on Mar 27, 2020 8:10:29 GMT -6
12Z HRRR is nasty on Saturday. I mean...just going by the HRRR you'd have to at least entertain a high risk. Don't get me wrong...I would never throw all my eggs in one basket and actually call a high risk especially at this stage. I'm just saying... For the metro or north-central Illinois? |
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Post by bdgwx on Mar 27, 2020 8:13:35 GMT -6
12Z HRRR is nasty on Saturday. I mean...just going by the HRRR you'd have to at least entertain a high risk. Don't get me wrong...I would never throw all my eggs in one basket and actually call a high risk especially at this stage. I'm just saying... For the metro or north-central Illinois? Mainly for the area the SPC has already focused on. Keep in mind that the HRRR sometimes oversells outbreaks. |
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Post by ajd446 on Mar 27, 2020 8:18:30 GMT -6
I could see moderate in metro. These things tend to trend south
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Mar 27, 2020 8:25:14 GMT -6
I could see moderate in metro. These things tend to trend south This mornings sure didnt. Belleville, in one of his posts last evening pointed that the HRRRRRRR moved the bulk of the threat north and it did just that. He also pointed out some potential for right turners and one cell appeared to do that. I think if things trend the way they have been, the areas in the outlooks are spot on. No way this moves much further south to have the metro in a moderate risk. That said, if the potential increases to warrent a high risk, I'll reevaluate my comments and eat my shoe. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Mar 27, 2020 8:34:56 GMT -6
For the metro or north-central Illinois? Mainly for the area the SPC has already focused on. Keep in mind that the HRRR sometimes oversells outbreaks. The HRRR hodographs are pretty beefy for STL metro proper...more marginal southeast. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 27, 2020 8:38:47 GMT -6
Wind is ripping out of the S here in Arnold. Looks like the warm front is stalled out across the metro
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Post by bdgwx on Mar 27, 2020 8:39:29 GMT -6
Here is what the environment looks like in terms of sigtor Saturday afternoon. Multiple discrete long track supercells are breaking out in the warm sector here as well. Verbatim it is gnarly. Just remember...HRRR does often exaggerate outbreak potential. Though clearly this has piqued the SPC's interest since they have a D2 moderate hoisted for IL.  |
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Post by cozpregon on Mar 27, 2020 8:47:31 GMT -6
I would imagine they will pull the enhanced risk down into the metro
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 27, 2020 9:35:20 GMT -6
Short-term models have slowed the systems forward motion with the morning cycles...not surprising with a deepening, sub 990mb cyclone. I would expect to see the hatched 15% region for strong tornadoes expanded further S along the river valley close to or into the metro given STP forecasts.
I also think there could be a tornado and certainly a large hail threat with the supercells that fire across MO along the lifting warm front later this evening...once again near the I-70 corridor.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 27, 2020 9:36:55 GMT -6
Going to be some high sig tors around here this evening if anything can get going  |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Mar 27, 2020 9:45:19 GMT -6
The SPC included the metro in the slight risk in the latest update. Is this cloud layer going to burn off?
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Post by bdgwx on Mar 27, 2020 10:29:05 GMT -6
15Z RAP is advertising a high ceiling event in IL.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Mar 27, 2020 10:33:22 GMT -6
15Z RAP is advertising a high ceiling event in IL. Dont think ive ever heard that before. |
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Post by bdgwx on Mar 27, 2020 10:40:37 GMT -6
15Z RAP is advertising a high ceiling event in IL. Dont think ive ever heard that before. Sorry...that's jargon for not being able to eliminate the possibility of a high end event. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 27, 2020 10:54:52 GMT -6
15Z RAP is advertising a high ceiling event in IL. That would certainly argue for extending the enhanced risk into the metro |
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