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Post by Tilawn on Feb 24, 2020 13:16:35 GMT -6
This isn't an 8-12" storm anywhere, IMO...been seeing some big numbers being put out that are unrealistic. I can't remember over the last 5 years when TWC was right or somewhat accurate with a snowstorm forecast. Umm......they have actually been fairly accurate for my forecast this winter. A few times they would jump all over the place but much better then recent years |
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Post by dschreib on Feb 24, 2020 13:26:53 GMT -6
Maybe I'll get to see some snow on the ground again. Our youngest is in the 3-Point Showdown preliminaries in Normal (ISU) on Thursday. Hootie-hoo.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 24, 2020 13:53:30 GMT -6
I’ll have what the one SREF plume is having that shows 7” for St Louis
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Post by unclesam6 on Feb 24, 2020 14:14:14 GMT -6
it's actually painful to watch all of this rich qpf go to waste.
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 24, 2020 14:16:40 GMT -6
18z nam hits stl pretty good overnight tomorrow.
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 24, 2020 14:17:23 GMT -6
South trend continues!
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 24, 2020 14:21:33 GMT -6
I’ll have what the one SREF plume is having that shows 7” for St Louis You mean the 21" one? lol |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 24, 2020 14:22:55 GMT -6
Accumulations would be pretty efficient Tuesday night on the NAM with cold mid level temps and surface temps falling to 30*
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Post by landscaper on Feb 24, 2020 14:35:10 GMT -6
Wow the NAM basically leaves Iowa and northern Illinois with next to nothing.
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 24, 2020 14:36:47 GMT -6
If this trend keeps the momentum we will be looking at a foot by 12z tomorrow.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Feb 24, 2020 14:43:49 GMT -6
Nighttime coupled with decent snowfall rates will make accumulation happen. May not be quite as efficient at first but it will. I’ll be in Festus for this so I’m liking the south trends.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 24, 2020 14:49:12 GMT -6
Both the NAM and EURO are catching onto the redevelopment of the deformation further south across the region. Also, timing has sped up a bit with much of the snow falling during nighttime hours which will help with accumulation given the borderline surface temps.
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Post by cozpregon on Feb 24, 2020 14:54:15 GMT -6
Accumulations would be pretty efficient Tuesday night on the NAM with cold mid level temps and surface temps falling to 30* Lapse rates of 7.5-8.0*C thru the DGZ too |
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Post by cozpregon on Feb 24, 2020 14:55:15 GMT -6
Both the NAM and EURO are catching onto the redevelopment of the deformation further south across the region. Also, timing has sped up a bit with much of the snow falling during nighttime hours which will help with accumulation given the borderline surface temps. Closer to the upper level jet support |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 24, 2020 14:56:09 GMT -6
Good call on this one BRTN. I had this one written off and thrown in the trash a few days ago
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 24, 2020 15:10:52 GMT -6
Both the NAM and EURO are catching onto the redevelopment of the deformation further south across the region. Also, timing has sped up a bit with much of the snow falling during nighttime hours which will help with accumulation given the borderline surface temps. Closer to the upper level jet support Yep...some models still close this off at 500mb overhead with a neutral/negative tilt developing. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 24, 2020 15:11:43 GMT -6
Good call on this one BRTN. I had this one written off and thrown in the trash a few days ago It's not over yet...but I like the trend! |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 24, 2020 15:39:31 GMT -6
Cobb method on the 18z NAM prints out 3.7” of snow with a cumulative snow ratio of 13:1 at Lambert
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 24, 2020 15:48:42 GMT -6
haha..GFS has a strip of 3 inches in the south
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 24, 2020 15:50:05 GMT -6
I got 7.5” on dec 16 after models had me at 1-2” 24 hours prior
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 24, 2020 15:52:30 GMT -6
Starting to see signs of a pretty healthy defo band sweeping through.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 24, 2020 15:52:31 GMT -6
I got 7.5” on dec 16 after models had me at 1-2” 24 hours prior I’m going to get 1-2” when models had me at 7.5” 24 hours out. Your way is more fun |
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Post by dschreib on Feb 24, 2020 15:56:45 GMT -6
I've never said "Hmph" more than I have when reading the last few posts. From Unclesam complaining about the wasted QPF, to 99 saying the south is going to get 3" according to the GFS, to cards getting 7" when he was supposed to get 2", to wsc maybe getting 1-2" when he was supposed to get 7.5".
Hmph
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Post by STGOutdoors on Feb 24, 2020 15:59:32 GMT -6
To say the 18z gfs made a shift south with the snow would be an understatement.
I guess it would absolutely make sense if my son was born while it was snowing!
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Post by snowday_lover on Feb 24, 2020 16:46:03 GMT -6
To say the 18z gfs made a shift south with the snow would be an understatement. I guess it would absolutely make sense if my son was born while it was snowing! That would be neat! Hope it happens! |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Feb 24, 2020 17:30:10 GMT -6
To say the 18z gfs made a shift south with the snow would be an understatement. I guess it would absolutely make sense if my son was born while it was snowing! That would be neat! Hope it happens! I don’t think it gets that far south but could still be in line for a dusting. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 24, 2020 17:56:03 GMT -6
where's that one nuisance guy at Here I am, sir. Im not too interested in this system. Yes the pattern has changed in the sense that i believe it was dry last wednesday. Going nws forecasts have the nw burbs at half to 1 inch or less. 24 hrs at models are pretty aggressive with qpf and southward extent, so im inclined to wait and see after models are updated with new data. |
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Post by pbc12871 on Feb 24, 2020 18:34:05 GMT -6
Not you, the other nuisance guy.
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Post by amstilost on Feb 24, 2020 18:55:07 GMT -6
Wow, with the Davenport Disco 2:30pm update....just wow. I would think that scenario would/should really dampen the excitement WRT the trends south. Any thoughts from the pro's???
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 24, 2020 18:56:54 GMT -6
Not you, the other nuisance guy. I literally lol'd |
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