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Post by Snowstorm920 on May 12, 2020 9:02:19 GMT -6
Latest day 3. Primary threat is large hail  |
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Post by dschreib on May 12, 2020 9:06:06 GMT -6
This has easily been the longest stretch of awkward temperatures that I can remember... That's because the last 8-10 weeks have been 4 years long. |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on May 12, 2020 9:19:04 GMT -6
Looks like a rapid reversal in the cool pattern will emerge into next week...GFS builds a massive 588dm+ ridge across the region which would suggest highs well into the 80s. That's what I hate! Its like Boom, Summer temps!! Ugh... |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on May 12, 2020 15:04:17 GMT -6
Any indications, currently, that the slight risk pushes any further south and or east for thursday?
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on May 12, 2020 16:43:19 GMT -6
My dad lives in New Braunfels TX and he told me there are places around Canyon Lake that have gotten over 13 inches of rain already. He has gotten around 5 inches.
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Post by cozpregon on May 12, 2020 17:39:56 GMT -6
Any indications, currently, that the slight risk pushes any further south and or east for thursday? Yes... it may be during the night- but I could see it. |
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Post by John G -west belleville on May 12, 2020 22:24:41 GMT -6
My dad lives in New Braunfels TX and he told me there are places around Canyon Lake that have gotten over 13 inches of rain already. He has gotten around 5 inches. Yikes. I lived in Bandera for a summer. |
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Post by Tilawn on May 13, 2020 6:10:15 GMT -6
This mist/drizzle is going to be a PIA working today!!
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Post by Chris Higgins on May 13, 2020 6:23:37 GMT -6
I am really trying to focus on not over-forecasting the storms over the next few days. One thing I hear a lot from people is that it is hard to tell if its going to storm all day or not? Like tomorrow...definitely not an all day rain. More likely to be more dry than wet...until the evening storms.Trying to hit that point hard. Also, as I look at Friday... it sure looks more dry than wet with the focus for storms shifting south for a bit after the morning storms kick through an outflow boundary. With a resurgence in storms Friday night into Saturday. Hope I dont regret this  |
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Post by dschreib on May 13, 2020 7:23:32 GMT -6
I am really trying to focus on not over-forecasting the storms over the next few days. One thing I hear a lot from people is that it is hard to tell if its going to storm all day or not? Like tomorrow...definitely not an all day rain. More likely to be more dry than wet...until the evening storms.Trying to hit that point hard. Also, as I look at Friday... it sure looks more dry than wet with the focus for storms shifting south for a bit after the morning storms kick through an outflow boundary. With a resurgence in storms Friday night into Saturday. Hope I dont regret this Me, neither. We're attempting some graduation pictures for the oldest at SEMO (actually she's going down with her sister and taking them). Her "graduation" is Saturday, so we'll have some sort of family ceremony in the yard. Also...for anyone out there...there are several graduation parades coming up in southern IL. I made a public facebook post with dates and times. As ! POOPY !ty as it's been for area seniors, I think it would be neat if thousands of people lined the streets of these towns, even if they didn't know any of the graduates. Make it as big of a deal as we possibly can. Stay in your car if you want, or get out and stay socially-distanced (or come up to me if you happen to know me--I don't mind). Below are the dates and times that I know right now: Valmeyer--Friday, May 15 @ 7:00p New Athens--Saturday, May 16 @ 2:00p Marissa--Friday, May 22 @ 6:30p Okawville--Sunday, May 24 @ 5:00p.
FLOOD THE STREETS!
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Post by dschreib on May 13, 2020 7:25:20 GMT -6
Here’s the link—feel free to share. We're planning on going to all of these. Join us. /?d=n |
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Post by unclesam6 on May 13, 2020 10:37:28 GMT -6
Forecasting severe weather along a wobbly stationary boundary sucks.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on May 13, 2020 10:39:27 GMT -6
Forecasting severe weather along a wobbly stationary boundary sucks. I was just about to comment how the convective trends the next few days are messy. What the storms do tomorrow will have an impact on what the storms do Friday and so on |
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Post by cozpregon on May 13, 2020 10:49:22 GMT -6
THURSDAY...Warmer. Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of
showers and thunderstorms. High around 80. South wind 10 to
15 mph with gusts to around 25 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Showers and thunderstorms. Low in the mid 60s.
Southwest wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.
.FRIDAY...Showers and thunderstorms. High in the upper 70s.
Southwest wind around 10 mph in the morning becoming light in the
afternoon. Chance of rain 80 percent.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Low in the mid
60s. Chance of rain 70 percent.
.SATURDAY...Showers and thunderstorms. High around 80. Chance of
rain 90 percent.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Showers and thunderstorms. Low in the mid 60s.
Chance of rain 80 percent.
I may be a little over critical... but this forecast doesn't really help- a little lazy in my opinion. Blanket showers and thunderstorms from Thursday night thru Saturday night.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on May 13, 2020 10:59:44 GMT -6
That also would give you the impression the entire time period will be a wash out
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on May 13, 2020 11:10:00 GMT -6
Mine says that all the way trough Sunday night
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 13, 2020 11:41:02 GMT -6
This mist/drizzle is going to be a PIA working today!! Seemed to clear up with diurnal swing and increase in dewpoint depression. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on May 13, 2020 13:33:34 GMT -6
Given the temps at least it will all be liquid. If you were dealing with a freezing line it would be that much worse.
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Post by bdgwx on May 13, 2020 16:01:38 GMT -6
It appears there are decent odds we could have our first tropical storm in the next few days. NHC gives that wave over Cuba 70% of developing.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on May 13, 2020 19:45:22 GMT -6
00z HRRRv4 has a good looking squall like moving through here tomorrow night
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Post by Tilawn on May 13, 2020 20:03:50 GMT -6
This mist/drizzle is going to be a PIA working today!! Seemed to clear up with diurnal swing and increase in dewpoint depression. Yes it did about 30 minutes after I started my first lawn |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on May 13, 2020 22:17:35 GMT -6
Models are showing a cut off low getting stuck underneath the developing ridge early next week. This has been a weird May  |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on May 14, 2020 5:31:59 GMT -6
NWS Norman office reported a 60mph gust this morning from what they're calling a "heat burst" I've never heard of this before. I'd imagine it is similar to a down burst. However, in my mind heat rises, so how? Interesting for sure!
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Post by Chris Higgins on May 14, 2020 5:53:35 GMT -6
NWS Norman office reported a 60mph gust this morning from what they're calling a "heat burst" I've never heard of this before. I'd imagine it is similar to a down burst. However, in my mind heat rises, so how? Interesting for sure! Heat bursts are not all that common... but I have seen them before. Stronger ones can produce winds approaching 100 mph and a temperature spike to nearly 100! A parcel of air collapses out of a dying shower or thundershower... as the parcel descends it drys out dramatically and undergoes significant compression resulting in compressional warming. This is a pretty straight forward explanation from wikipedia.... As the thunderstorm starts to dissipate, the layer of clouds start to rise. After the layer of clouds have risen, a rain-cooled layer remains. The cluster shoots a burst of unsaturated air down towards the ground. In doing so, the system loses all of its updraft related fuel.[6] The raindrops begin to evaporate into dry air, which emphasizes the effects of the heat bursts. As the unsaturated air descends, the air pressure increases. The descending air parcel warms at the dry adiabatic lapse rate of approximately 10 °C per 1000 meters (5.5 °F per 1000 feet) of descent. The warm air from the cluster replaces the cool air on the ground. The effect is similar to someone blowing down on a puddle of water. On 4 March 1990, the National Weather Service in Goodland, Kansas detected a system that had weakened, containing light rain showers and snow showers. It was followed by gusty winds and a temperature increase. A heat burst was being observed. The detection proved that heat bursts can occur in both summer months and winter months. The occurrence also proved that a weakening thunderstorm was not needed in the development of heat bursts. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on May 14, 2020 5:58:04 GMT -6
The morning storms west of Bowling Green should (I hope) begin to weaken shortly as the LLJ veers and weakens considerably between now and 10am. I'm still playing a conservative/dry hunch with today...choosing to go with "mainly dry with only spot t-showers possible this afternoon" The lack of forcing and refocusing of the LLJ to the west this afternoon will really limit storm potential today IMO.
Tonight...different story. Showers and storms are likely tonight with the stronger forcing. Strong wind gusts and near severe hail seem to be our major concern tonight.
The outflow from tonight's storm should clear the way for another mainly dry day tomorrow with only a slight chance of redevelopment in the afternoon close to what I hope will be a mostly inactive wind shift/remnant old front near I-70.
Storms ramp up again Friday night into Saturday as a new wave ejects from the west and ramps the LLJ back up.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on May 14, 2020 6:14:24 GMT -6
NWS Norman office reported a 60mph gust this morning from what they're calling a "heat burst" I've never heard of this before. I'd imagine it is similar to a down burst. However, in my mind heat rises, so how? Interesting for sure! Heat bursts are not all that common... but I have seen them before. Stronger ones can produce winds approaching 100 mph and a temperature spike to nearly 100! A parcel of air collapses out of a dying shower or thundershower... as the parcel descends it drys out dramatically and undergoes significant compression resulting in compressional warming. This is a pretty straight forward explanation from wikipedia.... As the thunderstorm starts to dissipate, the layer of clouds start to rise. After the layer of clouds have risen, a rain-cooled layer remains. The cluster shoots a burst of unsaturated air down towards the ground. In doing so, the system loses all of its updraft related fuel.[6] The raindrops begin to evaporate into dry air, which emphasizes the effects of the heat bursts. As the unsaturated air descends, the air pressure increases. The descending air parcel warms at the dry adiabatic lapse rate of approximately 10 °C per 1000 meters (5.5 °F per 1000 feet) of descent. The warm air from the cluster replaces the cool air on the ground. The effect is similar to someone blowing down on a puddle of water. On 4 March 1990, the National Weather Service in Goodland, Kansas detected a system that had weakened, containing light rain showers and snow showers. It was followed by gusty winds and a temperature increase. A heat burst was being observed. The detection proved that heat bursts can occur in both summer months and winter months. The occurrence also proved that a weakening thunderstorm was not needed in the development of heat bursts. Thank you Chris for the explanation. I have more questions now, which hopefully is not a surprise. I have always understood that a collapsing thunderstorm is the primary cause of micro-bursts/down-bursts so I kind of understand how you explained it. If a thunderstorm is involved in one of these instances, I wouldn't think that drying would be a factor. I also want to relate to the "dynamic cooling" we often discuss in wintertime where the spontaneous saturation causes cooling. Is the spontaneous drying similar in that regard? How then when the compression happens does drying occur in some storms but moist micro-bursts happen in others?
You do not have to answer these, I am just thinking out loud. I have some things to research now. Thank you for the lesson!
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Post by amstilost on May 14, 2020 7:56:23 GMT -6
Holy Smokes,
I am going to issue a "Concrete Sweat Warning" this morning for my front patio. My patio faces east so it had several hours of sunshine. There is also evidence of raccoon foot prints. I am just really surprised how much moisture is on the ground. The previous owner had the porch painted so there is a big difference between the porch and the unpainted walkway 3 feet away. Concrete walkway and driveyway are just damp and slowy drying in the glorius sunshine.
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on May 14, 2020 8:06:50 GMT -6
Definitely feel the humidity rising.
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Post by STGOutdoors on May 14, 2020 8:09:15 GMT -6
There should be some storms out ahead of the overnight line this afternoon/evening. Short term models starting to pick up on this more now.
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Post by birddog on May 14, 2020 8:19:11 GMT -6
There should be some storms out ahead of the overnight line this afternoon/evening. Short term models starting to pick up on this more now. You mean like the ones headed this way right now? |
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