Chris's Corner - Fresh for April

Nothing here

We are all but guaranteed to havean official Nina for this fall-spring.

In fact the nino surface conditions while having it's normal atmospheric influence was propped up by a very thin layer of near surface warm anomalies over the Eastern side of Enso box 3.

With a slightly deeper warm pool over the Western side of Enso 4.


With a solid shot of weakened equatorial Easterlies from Jan-early March was enough to keep the charade up while cold anomalies slowly gathered in the 40-100M subsurface range between 5N-5S.

FULL STOP!!

About a month ago the equatorial winds turned into anomalously strong Easterlies then about 2.5 weeks ago one of the longest and strongest bursts of Easterly anomalous winds broke out spanning from 100/110 East all the way to the dateline.

Now the coldest sub-surface temps since the 1999 Nina are here.

So a moderate Nina to strong is likely to be well established by early Fall.

So going back in time.

Winters with moderate to strong ninas.

2017-18(moderate) awful winter
2011-12(strong)SNOWY
2010-11(strong)SNOWY
2005-06(weakish) awful winter
2000-01(weakish) can't remember
1999-00(strong) good winter
1998-99(strong) huge New year's Eve snow/sleet event... The largest in the upper Mississippi valley/lower lakes maybe on record?
1995-96(moderate) solid winter
1988-89(strong) can't remember except bitter cold
1985-86(moderate) don't know
1984-85(weak) don't now
1975-76(strong) don't know
1974-75(weakish-moderate) don't know
1973-74(strongest since at least 1948) don't know
1971-72(moderate) don't know
1970-71(moderately-strong) don't know
1964-65(weak) don't know






Not going back any further since the climate was so different from today.

Really anything pre late 80s is like from a different world.

Never the less.



The main pattern is a NPAC -epo(big ridge) bringing a cross polar flow into Western NA with deep cold riding the spine of the Rockies and in many cases the cold spilling into the pnw.

This is the kind of pattern that will bring us good chances for winter precip of all kinds.

If there is a SE ridge and a +NAO/AO we can get major ice storms from this pattern between the i70-i80 corridors in December.

While that shifts SE and centers on the i44 corridor in Jan and Feb.

If we have no blocking and no SE ridge we can see major snows from even moderate pieces of energy like Jan 2014 or Feb 2009.

If we have blocking we can sadly end up in the late 90s to mid 2000s ngm,avn headfakes where the models a day out print out .35-.50 qpf with 12/1 ratios prompting the NWS to forecast this:

This afternoon increasing clouds with flurries after 4pm. High around 27. EASTERLY WIND 8-14 MPH.

TONIGHT...40% Chance of Snow before midnight...then periods of Snow overnight. Moderate accumulation likely, low of 24. EASTERLY Winds 7-12 mph becoming out of the NE towards morning. Chance of snow 80%.

TOMORROW...SNOW Likely before noon. Total snow accumulation 4-8 inches. High of 25. Temperatures falling into the upper teens by late afternoon. Winds becoming out of the NW by afternoon between 14-22mph possible gusts to 25mph.

Tomorrow night...very cold, cloudy skies becoming clear by midnight. NW Winds 10-15mph early tapering off after midnight. Low near 8.


And the reality:

Cloudy with Easterly and NE winds. A few flurries with a token 45 min period of light snow with no accumulation.

In 1992,1994, 2001, and 2003 we actually had forecasts within 24 hours of said event with winter storm warnings that ended with no snow.


Because the models back then would go nuts WITH THE LLJ INTO COLD SUPER DRY AIRMASSES while failing deeply on capturing the conveyor belt of dry Ohio valley air.


The models would drive the LLJ at times up to 100 miles further North than the adjacent frontal boundary.

When in reality the moisture and windy conveyor belt would veer well South of St. Louis.

This would focus the 750-900mb moisture and lift ussually no further North than a St. Gen line.

While along i44 the lift would be centered higher up in the 600-750mb level.

Well with a fat dry layer between 800mb and the surface.

The regional radar would show moderate snow all the way to Litchfield, IL while the nexrad 88 would show a huge ! BACKSIDE ! donut.

Lastly the most painful for me was in 1992. I was in 4th grade.

I believe it was in January.

Two days before the event the NWS issued a winter storm watch for the potential for 7-12" of snow.

One of the local news outlets was pumping out 10-15"s.

By 24 hours that was cut down to 6-8" and a winter storm warning for South of i70.

Then my teacher told me after lunch that the weather people on the news at lunch time were saying the storm was looking to end up going way South of the earlier forecasts.

I'm guessing a failed phase.

And they lowered snow amounts to 3-5" but with a 90 percent chance. This was 4-4 hours before start.

By early evening we were down to 1-3" and a 70 percent chance.

That turned into 1" or less after midnight with a 50 percent chance.

I awoke the next day to tears and not a flake.

Infact the closest accumulation was 150 miles SE of STL.

Amazing the forecasts were for a foot 48 hours prior.


Had to be a failed modeled phase.

Probably the Northern stream ended up squashing heights while it brought snow to Chicago and the Southern stream therefor couldn't amplify at all.

We had something like that two Winters ago.

I think from like St. Gen to Belleville had 1-2".

But a few days before the models had the i44 corridor getting 3-6".


But as we got closer and closer the Northern energy sqauahed Heights.

And even tho the h5 vort max actually came out of the SW decently developed and organized.

The h7, h8, and surface lows were all bunched up just NW of the h5 track and the moisture was totally stunted.

Well end post way to Long

Phat ! BACKSIDE ! lightening bolt towards the North

Can't believe yesterday it was so cold out.

Today it's like urban jungle humid

Got 2 tenths out of that round. So much for mowing today unless the sun comes out strong and dries it up before the next spot shower.

Grass mowed. Last flower bed might not get in today. Fingers crossed.

Missed this last storm by less than a mile or two lol. I could hear the hail and rain but nothing here.

And look at that perfect split around downtown metro

I’d expect popcorn storms to start rapidly popping soon.

Big boomers here in Arnold from that cell just to the west

Why can't I get Tapatalk to login? I know I don't post much but it tells me token could not be verified

The National Weather Service has posted a lovely informational map with predictions for its service area and already the idiots are commenting. Is it going to hit Mascoutah? Bourbon? Ugh. What is wrong with these people? Is it really that hard to find where you live on a map? Rant over. As you were.

That is a big, mean looking line of storms on radar.

Wow. I think I've just heard the loudest one in my life. Must have struck less than 1000 feet away. I've never felt a "bomb going off" more than I just did then. Heart was racing! Time to go back to sleep. 🤤🤤