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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jun 3, 2020 23:08:58 GMT -6
Rainy here. But 30 miles west they are getting inundated. The motion within this complex looks like a drunk walking home from a night at the bar.. Absolutely every which way at the same time.
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Post by scmhack on Jun 3, 2020 23:16:29 GMT -6
Rainy here. But 30 miles west they are getting inundated. The motion within this complex looks like a drunk walking home from a night at the bar.. Absolutely every which way at the same time. I'm sorry, but what? (I Live in the area) |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jun 4, 2020 0:06:05 GMT -6
The MCS dropping into KC and the westward propegating outflow/MCS over central MO will merge over western MO. The resulting system will end up being redirected more to the southeast or south. Areas from near sedelia south into the Ozarks will catch the brunt of the new MCS. Some of it may spill over into our western/southwestern counties but I don't see it surviving all the way into STL. What will survive are the remnant clouds...limiting sun for much Thursday.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jun 4, 2020 0:17:38 GMT -6
Not sure where it's raining but anything trying to push South of 70 is hitting a brick wall
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Post by unclesam6 on Jun 4, 2020 0:29:09 GMT -6
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jun 4, 2020 1:14:43 GMT -6
Rainy here. But 30 miles west they are getting inundated. The motion within this complex looks like a drunk walking home from a night at the bar.. Absolutely every which way at the same time. I'm sorry, but what? (I Live in the area) At the time there was just no general movement in the same direction. Some moving east, some south, some southwest. |
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Post by cardsnweather on Jun 4, 2020 4:21:26 GMT -6
I feel like Columbia has sat under 40 dbz downpours for the last 10 hours. Uncle Sam??
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Jun 4, 2020 5:58:33 GMT -6
Had lightning and thunder most of the night but only enough rain to wet the ground. Crazy the amounts from out west.
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Post by REB on Jun 4, 2020 6:03:28 GMT -6
Nothing at my house.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jun 4, 2020 6:16:34 GMT -6
Nothing here either. I did end up watering the peach trees.
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Post by Tilawn on Jun 4, 2020 6:19:42 GMT -6
My gauge isn’t working yet but reports from locals (farmers) is generally 1.5” give or take a little on the exact location.
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Post by bear1 on Jun 4, 2020 6:37:18 GMT -6
1.19" here in Bourbon.
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Post by birddog on Jun 4, 2020 6:37:36 GMT -6
.07" here
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jun 4, 2020 7:08:00 GMT -6
What's the latest on Christobol? Still going to be an factor next week?
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Post by toddatfarmington on Jun 4, 2020 7:14:59 GMT -6
2.21” at KFAM
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Post by amstilost on Jun 4, 2020 7:56:36 GMT -6
Looking at the radar I would swear that is a band of snow dissipating as it heads into my area. Ground was damp this morning from a trace of precip at some point overnight. Hope no one received damage from excessive rains. 7 miles west of De Soto.
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Post by yypc on Jun 4, 2020 8:10:35 GMT -6
I feel like Columbia has sat under 40 dbz downpours for the last 10 hours. Uncle Sam?? They are just priming the pump for next winter when they will get several 15”+ snowstorms that completely miss St. Louis. Same as it ever was. |
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Post by scmhack on Jun 4, 2020 8:11:30 GMT -6
I'm sorry, but what? (I Live in the area) At the time there was just no general movement in the same direction. Some moving east, some south, some southwest. I was more confused because it was pouring on me when you said that and you're at most 5 miles from me |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jun 4, 2020 8:18:18 GMT -6
At the time there was just no general movement in the same direction. Some moving east, some south, some southwest. I was more confused because it was pouring on me when you said that and you're at most 5 miles from me That seems to have been the nature of the system last night. If we got two tenths I'll be surprised. As Chris said this morning on air Scott AFB got nothing (as well as others are reporting the same here). But parts of the area got frog stranglers |
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Post by unclesam6 on Jun 4, 2020 9:48:19 GMT -6
I feel like Columbia has sat under 40 dbz downpours for the last 10 hours. Uncle Sam?? 1.64" at the airport! Several ASOS recording 4.5" all around us tho. Especially north. |
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lunchladyd
Junior Forecaster
On the Troy -Silex, Mo. line
Posts: 399 
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Post by lunchladyd on Jun 4, 2020 10:04:37 GMT -6
Lots of thunder and lightning last night. We only got a half inch of rain here.
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twocat
Junior Forecaster
North St. Peters off Cave Springs
Posts: 395
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Post by twocat on Jun 4, 2020 10:21:10 GMT -6
I was more confused because it was pouring on me when you said that and you're at most 5 miles from me That seems to have been the nature of the system last night. If we got two tenths I'll be surprised. As Chris said this morning on air Scott AFB got nothing (as well as others are reporting the same here). But parts of the area got frog stranglers We got .20 last night according to you know who..... (a gentle reminder - the Davis on the roof in North St. Pete) |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jun 4, 2020 10:53:24 GMT -6
That seems to have been the nature of the system last night. If we got two tenths I'll be surprised. As Chris said this morning on air Scott AFB got nothing (as well as others are reporting the same here). But parts of the area got frog stranglers We got .20 last night according to you know who..... (a gentle reminder - the Davis on the roof in North St. Pete) So I wasn't too far wrong with my estimate. Thanks. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jun 4, 2020 12:46:34 GMT -6
Convective trends tomorrow are murky but there looks to be potential for an MCS in the afternoon or evening. Big CAPE days always give the models headaches
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Post by unclesam6 on Jun 4, 2020 13:22:18 GMT -6
can anyone explain the strange nature of the MCS merge last night? I'm looking back at IR satellite and it almost seems like the retreating outflow in central Missouri is "fishing" for the leading edge of the northern MCS... It looks so weird. My guess is that the inflow along the leading edge of the eastward advancing boundary that's pulling in moisture from the convection to the east... but I don't know for sure. I've never seen anything like it.
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Post by bdgwx on Jun 4, 2020 13:29:13 GMT -6
I don't know but yesterday's 18Z HRRRv4 run was depicting a similar merge...just delayed by several hours. I noticed because it looked odd from a modeling perspective.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 4, 2020 14:34:37 GMT -6
can anyone explain the strange nature of the MCS merge last night? I'm looking back at IR satellite and it almost seems like the retreating outflow in central Missouri is "fishing" for the leading edge of the northern MCS... It looks so weird. My guess is that the inflow along the leading edge of the eastward advancing boundary that's pulling in moisture from the convection to the east... but I don't know for sure. I've never seen anything like it. The eastern MCS was strongly backbuilding towards the W along the LLJ axis towards the instability/THETA-E plume while the western MCS was propagating E/SE. Pretty cool. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Jun 4, 2020 15:38:28 GMT -6
can anyone explain the strange nature of the MCS merge last night? I'm looking back at IR satellite and it almost seems like the retreating outflow in central Missouri is "fishing" for the leading edge of the northern MCS... It looks so weird. My guess is that the inflow along the leading edge of the eastward advancing boundary that's pulling in moisture from the convection to the east... but I don't know for sure. I've never seen anything like it. The eastern MCS was strongly backbuilding towards the W along the LLJ axis towards the instability/THETA-E plume while the western MCS was propagating E/SE. Pretty cool. Wow. Those features really pop in the charts on the NAM. Thanks for that. |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jun 4, 2020 15:44:38 GMT -6
Seen this on Vortex Chasing! So true y'all!  |
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Post by jmg378s on Jun 4, 2020 15:48:49 GMT -6
can anyone explain the strange nature of the MCS merge last night? I'm looking back at IR satellite and it almost seems like the retreating outflow in central Missouri is "fishing" for the leading edge of the northern MCS... It looks so weird. My guess is that the inflow along the leading edge of the eastward advancing boundary that's pulling in moisture from the convection to the east... but I don't know for sure. I've never seen anything like it. Yeah I'd never seen that before it was fascinating. Looking through mesoanalysis, satellite, and radar it looks to me like a few things may have been going on. First there was that untouched reservoir of uncapped or minimally capped SB/ML CAPE north of KC late into the night between the 2 MCSs. Then an arrangement of low levels winds up against a boundary combined with the leading edge of both outflows was producing a convergence zone in the same area. Add in some upwind/downwind & CAPE gradient affects of MCS propagation and we end up with the step-leader -like (or "fishing" as you describe) MCS merger. As bdg mentioned HRRRv4 through several runs actually did a good job hinting at that scenario. |
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