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Post by cozpregon on Jul 28, 2020 11:04:09 GMT -6
Ok I gave everyone the heads up. Of course they all just say it will be fine and it’s not gonna rain lol. I’d rather just cancel it now and plan for something else but you know how the general public is when it comes to forecasts. I had a rare day off work today so I turned on the locals to see what they were forecasting...the NWS had been showing 30% chance POPS for Saturday and it seems like the locals are following suit. But it sure looks like a washout to me...GYB technique bullseyes the S half of the CWA for excessive rainfall and it's starting to hone in on the 44/70 corridor with the best low-level convergence setting up over us. Of course that could still change...but the odds of isolated or widely scattered precip is way lower than a washout, IMO. The blocky pattern supports a slow moving system with plenty of moisture and lift from the stationary boundary. Rarely they don't follow suit. Seems the easy way out. |
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Post by cardsnweather on Jul 28, 2020 11:53:59 GMT -6
12z ukie is bone dry lol
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jul 28, 2020 12:00:48 GMT -6
Haven't seen it...wagons south? 12z GEFS is in strong agreement with the 00z op EC...that's pretty telling, IMO. |
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Post by cozpregon on Jul 28, 2020 12:16:30 GMT -6
Haven't seen it...wagons south? 12z GEFS is in strong agreement with the 00z op EC...that's pretty telling, IMO. Yep- it's how the second wave interacts with the initial wave coming out midweek. Wrapping it up or keeping it progressive. I'm with you on a less progressive pattern. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jul 28, 2020 12:20:29 GMT -6
euro dry on saturday too lmao
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ilnois
Wishcaster
Columbia, IL
Posts: 123
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Post by ilnois on Jul 28, 2020 12:21:03 GMT -6
Haven't seen it...wagons south? 12z GEFS is in strong agreement with the 00z op EC...that's pretty telling, IMO. Does the developing tropical system, slated to go into Florida, further support a slower pattern/evolution to this? |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jul 28, 2020 12:31:08 GMT -6
euro dry on saturday too lmao Pretty wet overall still |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jul 28, 2020 13:15:41 GMT -6
Haven't seen it...wagons south? 12z GEFS is in strong agreement with the 00z op EC...that's pretty telling, IMO. Does the developing tropical system, slated to go into Florida, further support a slower pattern/evolution to this? You'd think so...I think models are just having a tough time with the competing/interfering shortwaves like coz said. Tough call right now...but I'm betting on a rainy outcome. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jul 28, 2020 14:50:17 GMT -6
I opted to change up our wording a bit for Friday and Saturday. We originally had isolated storms for both days, but looking at the pattern... best track for shortwaves and surface system.. I opted to go with scattered showers instead. I think of location relative to the system(s) and instability will limit thunder potential...lead to mostly cloudy skies.. and more of a shower/rain pattern. There may be some thunder... but I wanted to emphasize more rain without over emphasizing thunder. It is all such a psychological game when it comes to wording.
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Post by mosue56 on Jul 28, 2020 16:10:56 GMT -6
It wasn’t much of a cold front that came through yesterday! Waiting on the next one to really cool us down!
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Post by ajd446 on Jul 28, 2020 16:15:15 GMT -6
Yes still 90 not that cool and humidity is already coming back up.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jul 28, 2020 16:31:13 GMT -6
Yes still 90 not that cool and humidity is already coming back up. After two weeks of 75*+ dewpoints, it's a pretty tolerable 90*. |
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Post by jeffcobeeman on Jul 28, 2020 22:24:08 GMT -6
I went out today and pulled all the honey off bee hives I have down near the Meremac River just in case it does flood. They will be a lot easier to move now if I have to.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jul 29, 2020 3:29:35 GMT -6
I went out today and pulled all the honey off bee hives I have down near the Meremac River just in case it does flood. They will be a lot easier to move now if I have to. Not sure we will get enough focused rainfall to result in anything more than substantial rises on rivers like the Meramec. Is it worth watching those rivers...for sure. But I'm not sold on anything beyond some flash flooding at this point. |
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Post by REB on Jul 29, 2020 9:02:12 GMT -6
Just mowed the yard. It is muggy. I sure hope it rains as I do NOT want to have to water.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jul 29, 2020 9:58:25 GMT -6
Pretty wild how much different models look over the past several runs for this weekend...they are really struggling. Ensembles still look pretty similar overall, though...but trending quicker with the exit of the trailing wave leaving a possible window of dry time between Saturday and Sunday. The bulk of the heavier rainfall looks to fall tonight/tomorrow into Friday with several inches possible across parts of the area tapering to more showery precip over the weekend.
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Jul 29, 2020 10:14:09 GMT -6
Just need to river to pop a few feet and stay that way till Saturday to get me out of this float trip lol.
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Post by cozpregon on Jul 29, 2020 11:12:12 GMT -6
Pretty wild how much different models look over the past several runs for this weekend...they are really struggling. Ensembles still look pretty similar overall, though...but trending quicker with the exit of the trailing wave leaving a possible window of dry time between Saturday and Sunday. The bulk of the heavier rainfall looks to fall tonight/tomorrow into Friday with several inches possible across parts of the area tapering to more showery precip over the weekend. Rarely do I look at the 700 moisture/low track to figure out where the main rains will fall in July... but models are trending that south over the weekend. Couple-3" seems likely in spots over the next 36-48 hours. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jul 29, 2020 11:23:50 GMT -6
Pretty wild how much different models look over the past several runs for this weekend...they are really struggling. Ensembles still look pretty similar overall, though...but trending quicker with the exit of the trailing wave leaving a possible window of dry time between Saturday and Sunday. The bulk of the heavier rainfall looks to fall tonight/tomorrow into Friday with several inches possible across parts of the area tapering to more showery precip over the weekend. Rarely do I look at the 700 moisture/low track to figure out where the main rains will fall in July... but models are trending that south over the weekend. Couple-3" seems likely in spots over the next 36-48 hours. How much farther south? |
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Post by cozpregon on Jul 29, 2020 11:27:53 GMT -6
They vary... but more southern 1/3 of metro
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Post by cozpregon on Jul 29, 2020 11:33:33 GMT -6
SB Cape 3500+ and PWs 2+ around the area early this afternoon ahead of this MCV in northern OK  |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jul 29, 2020 11:39:01 GMT -6
Shaping up to be a wet afternoon and night across the area
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jul 29, 2020 12:43:35 GMT -6
Disgusting!!!!  |
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Jul 29, 2020 12:45:26 GMT -6
Let’s see if these little storms manage to scoot completely around me
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jul 29, 2020 12:59:40 GMT -6
Pretty wild how much different models look over the past several runs for this weekend...they are really struggling. Ensembles still look pretty similar overall, though...but trending quicker with the exit of the trailing wave leaving a possible window of dry time between Saturday and Sunday. The bulk of the heavier rainfall looks to fall tonight/tomorrow into Friday with several inches possible across parts of the area tapering to more showery precip over the weekend. Rarely do I look at the 700 moisture/low track to figure out where the main rains will fall in July... but models are trending that south over the weekend. Couple-3" seems likely in spots over the next 36-48 hours. Seems to be a lot more push from the north stream wave across S/Central Canada which kicks out the mid-level trof/deformation about 24hrs quicker...but also introduces another active boundary for Sunday. Very complex series of events for the models to decipher. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Jul 29, 2020 13:06:49 GMT -6
not to mention the effects PTC/Isaias might have on the general flow too.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jul 29, 2020 13:18:41 GMT -6
Gust coming off these storms are pretty mean. Here in Arnold some gust have to be in the 40-45 range
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Jul 29, 2020 13:32:31 GMT -6
Had a brief 6-8 min shower here. Enough that I do not have to water today.
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Jul 29, 2020 13:37:14 GMT -6
I see my brief shower blew up into a decent little storm for snowman. Your welcome lol
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Post by toddatfarmington on Jul 29, 2020 15:12:21 GMT -6
KFAM at 2.25” since 1pm today
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