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Post by STGOutdoors on Aug 7, 2020 10:23:10 GMT -6
Some big time CAPE showing up on the models early next week Yea, we may get lucky and have storms tamper the heat wave like they did a couple weeks ago. Certainly is the trend this summer.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Aug 7, 2020 15:28:52 GMT -6
6000j/kg CAPE and ~30kts shear...yikes. Hopefully that's the NAM being the NAM and too moist/unstable. But it wouldn't surprise me, either with as much moisture is in the ground, the corn at peak growth and a boundary nearby to focus moisture pooling.
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Post by unclesam6 on Aug 7, 2020 17:01:10 GMT -6
don't get many MCV's better than the one in Minnesota this evening
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Post by Snowman99 on Aug 8, 2020 8:40:44 GMT -6
Looks like we'll have to keep an eye out for at least localized flash flooding over the next several days. Several rounds of storms, possible training in places and high pw's. Monday and Tuesday look like the better chances maybe.
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Post by ndolan387 on Aug 8, 2020 8:42:45 GMT -6
Looks like we'll have to keep an eye out for at least localized flash flooding over the next several days. Several rounds of storms, possible training in places and high pw's. Monday and Tuesday look like the better chances maybe. Do you think it's going to rain in Union later this morning? Those storms are surviving well.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Aug 8, 2020 8:52:49 GMT -6
That complex should decay but it will leave lots of turbulence and boundaries for this afternoon. I expect significant storm coverage this afternoon and evening across the area.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Aug 8, 2020 8:57:46 GMT -6
That complex should decay but it will leave lots of turbulence and boundaries for this afternoon. I expect significant storm coverage this afternoon and evening across the area. You can see the MCV spinning on radar north of Colombia. That should kick off more storms later today
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Post by STGOutdoors on Aug 8, 2020 10:20:35 GMT -6
The spin should slow to a halt with storms firing and not moving a lot. Hrrr supports 99’s concern of flash flooding.
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Post by Snowman99 on Aug 8, 2020 10:58:02 GMT -6
Some light rain falling here.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Aug 8, 2020 11:55:31 GMT -6
16z hrrrrrrrrr is really wet along and west of the Mississippi
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Post by ajd446 on Aug 8, 2020 13:24:33 GMT -6
Flash flood watch for 3 to 5 inches
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Post by Snowman99 on Aug 8, 2020 13:33:20 GMT -6
Yeah some people are going to get very wet tonight. Which could make for an even flashier floodier situation early in the week.
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Post by unclesam6 on Aug 8, 2020 13:49:46 GMT -6
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Post by Snowman99 on Aug 8, 2020 14:50:29 GMT -6
18z NAM has like a foot of rain in a bullseye just nw of here like Montgomery county, lol.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Aug 8, 2020 16:03:06 GMT -6
I wouldnt be suprised to see totals like that. This setup has me on edge. It has the makings of a Union-type flash flood event from May 1999 (or was it 2000?) I am concerned it will be a bad night for some communities. It is also 2020... so we are primed for flood disaster. It is going to be a long night.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Aug 8, 2020 16:05:36 GMT -6
Sure has been a persistent pattern lately with these slow moving MCVs and sub-tropical airmass. It definitely looks to light up into this evening...already popcorn cells firing along the moisture convergence zone along the MCVs northern periphery.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Aug 8, 2020 16:11:51 GMT -6
This heavy rain will probably be in the same areas that have already had a ton of rain. And areas that haven't seen a whole lot these past few weeks will be dry.
We shall see, lol.
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Post by Snowman99 on Aug 8, 2020 16:19:01 GMT -6
The Union Flash flood was in early May of 2000 Chris. Quite the sight to behold.
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Aug 8, 2020 16:25:10 GMT -6
Us river folks down here are watching closely.
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Post by Snowman99 on Aug 8, 2020 17:08:41 GMT -6
Us river folks down here are watching closely. I know I have talked about this event a lot, but it was crazy. The Bourbeuse rose like 20 feet that night. Most were expecting it to be a record flood, but since Union was the bullseye, and not as much fell upstream, it shot up, then slowly fell a little bit after it stopped raining. I had just bought a video store 1 year earlier, and had new carpeting put in. Creek water got inside, and hoo boy, did it stink. With a record flood expected I spent all day removing moves from shelves, then when it became obvious it wasn't going to flood I spent the next day putting everything back up. No sleep for at least 48 hours. Good times.
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Aug 8, 2020 17:14:52 GMT -6
The meremac would have to jump up about 18ft to hit our basement. Then about 30 ft to get in the house. It’s happened 3 times in the 60 years this house has been here. The last two being in 2015 and 2017. I don’t wanna have to go through why we did in 2017 again that’s for sure.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Aug 8, 2020 17:19:51 GMT -6
Hrrr has backed off some but it does that. And cells are firing now as mentioned. Then we have what looks to be some real heavy rain first half of the week too. Funny how seasonal patterns just repeat themselves over and over and over. Same thing happens in winter. Personally I enjoy summer storms and it keeps the heat waves in check.
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Aug 8, 2020 18:04:16 GMT -6
Everything is East of us so far. Not a drop yet.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Aug 8, 2020 18:29:18 GMT -6
Radar certainly isn’t too impressive just yet but the last 10 mins of sitting on the porch I can feel the stickiness building.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Aug 8, 2020 19:12:58 GMT -6
Need to wait for the LLJ to kick in before things will really get going. It usually gets cranking an hour after sunset
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Post by Chris Higgins on Aug 8, 2020 19:23:53 GMT -6
Need to wait for the LLJ to kick in before things will really get going. It usually gets cranking an hour after sunset Was just going to say that. Plus, I would expect a bit of a southwest expansion or drift to the axis due to rain cooling effects before a level of equillibrium is achieved and the forcing becomes more stationary. When you look outside right now you can see the lines of altocu towering up. It is just a matter of time before the LLJ does its thing.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Aug 8, 2020 19:24:22 GMT -6
Radar shows a tendency for backbuilding already...the precip shield should blossom into this evening and overnight for sure as the LLJ kicks in and draws deep moisture over the top with low/mid-level warm advection.
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Post by Snowman99 on Aug 8, 2020 19:31:03 GMT -6
It's like waiting for a snowstorm and for where the heavy axis will set up, lol.
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Aug 8, 2020 20:24:16 GMT -6
It's like waiting for a snowstorm and for where the heavy axis will set up, lol. So wagons north? Lol
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Aug 8, 2020 20:55:06 GMT -6
Dang looks like Mother Nature heard me lol
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