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Post by grizzlebeard on Oct 16, 2020 12:34:10 GMT -6
Pretty good fire on the North Side of Downtown - Abandoned Building. Wind taking the smoke east. Worried about how dry it is....
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Oct 16, 2020 13:11:13 GMT -6
Big cold snap at the end of the euro to  |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Oct 16, 2020 13:14:33 GMT -6
Definitely some solid model support for a solid cool down at the end of the month. Only 2 weeks to go... 
Election day would likely be quite chilly if end model trends continue.
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Post by mosue56 on Oct 16, 2020 13:15:32 GMT -6
Snowstorm920, is that Oct 25 on the cold snap?
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Post by unclesam6 on Oct 16, 2020 13:23:42 GMT -6
Pretty good fire on the North Side of Downtown - Abandoned Building. Wind taking the smoke east. Worried about how dry it is.... |
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Post by unclesam6 on Oct 16, 2020 13:32:45 GMT -6
Snowstorm920, is that Oct 25 on the cold snap? Yes. |
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weatherfan17- Denver, CO
Junior Forecaster
From Ste. Genevieve, MO currently residing in the Mile High City, Denver CO
Posts: 436 
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Post by weatherfan17- Denver, CO on Oct 16, 2020 15:18:21 GMT -6
Dave is thinking a wetter more active period setting up beginning of November. Will be interesting with cold air to the north. I seen videos of Minneapolis getting there first flakes of the year today.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Oct 16, 2020 17:25:39 GMT -6
The noon gfs...cold dry halloween. Will need thermals on beneath those costumes. Its cold from the continental divide all the way to the east coast with a noreaster winding down. Think 1993-ish except no snow here. Its also interesting to see the setup for upslope snows across the high plains back into the front ranges. I can see daves reasoning but so far no digital snow for this part of the country unless that high over the plains doesnt slide so far to the south. As for november, if the gfs verifies it wld start out pretty cold. Since its a broad area of cold, i can see the potential for an early season snow in november, possibly even earlier than the last 2 years. We seem to have a trend of early arctic outbreaks developing. It will be interesting to see how gfs and euro resolve any diffs in the next few days.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Oct 16, 2020 17:31:44 GMT -6
Both the Euro and GFS have us near or above 80 next Thursday. This is dumb. Meh! |
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Post by ajd446 on Oct 16, 2020 17:52:02 GMT -6
Honestlt this seems more typical of st.louis minus the desert like air. We have had one rollaer coaster temperature ride, i know the heat sticks out butnwe have had a couple frost and freeze events as well. So it is quite exciting in my opinion heading toward winter with the ups and downs it tends to give us a taste of everything that we all love, snow,cold,warm, rain, dry, ice, severe storms and all of the above. I thing this winter will actually be very exciting on all ends of the spectrum
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Oct 16, 2020 19:26:49 GMT -6
Did anyone else notice the hurricane at the end of the GFS run ...... comes into Fla from the south stops and then headed back south then west .... never seen anything like it
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Post by bdgwx on Oct 16, 2020 20:00:01 GMT -6
Did anyone else notice the hurricane at the end of the GFS run ...... comes into Fla from the south stops and then headed back south then west .... never seen anything like it All sorts of tropical shananigans have been shown on both the op and para GFS for several days now. We've seen near record breaking cyclones in terms of integrated kinetic energy, zig-zagging tracks, multiple landfalls in the same general area from the same storm, etc. with whatever the GFS shows forming in the Caribbean. The EPS ensemble is starting to pick up on the idea that tropical activity is a possibility down there after D5. We also have that invest way out there in the Atlantic that has 70% odds of developing. |
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Post by jmg378s on Oct 17, 2020 6:31:22 GMT -6
Be mindful of the fire danger today. Red flag warning for everybody but conditions along and north of I-44 look most favorable. NAM & GFS have some differences on depth of boundary layer (with shallower NAM more realistic in my opinion) but both show up to 50kt winds at the top mid afternoon anyway. If we do get good vertical mixing this easily translates to 40+ mph gusts (maybe even some approaching 50mph) north of I-44 in central MO under the core of the LLJ. Then combine that with drought conditions and low relative humidity. Here is the HRRR ensemble probability of <30% RH and winds > 20mph this afternoon.  |
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Post by bdgwx on Oct 17, 2020 9:08:55 GMT -6
The SPC has us in an elevated fire risk outlook today.
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Post by Snowman99 on Oct 17, 2020 10:29:45 GMT -6
Well it's raining. Leaves. There are leaf drifts a$$ deep. At this rate there won't be many left for the peak. At least it'll feel like fall tomorrow and Monday.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Oct 17, 2020 10:38:42 GMT -6
Noticed the euro had some digital snow across the western area on last nights run
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Oct 17, 2020 12:03:30 GMT -6
Well it's raining. Leaves. There are leaf drifts a$$ deep. At this rate there won't be many left for the peak. At least it'll feel like fall tomorrow and Monday. I'd rather they just all drop now so once people clean them up, hopefully they won't have to rake them up constantly through the season. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Oct 17, 2020 13:06:49 GMT -6
Noticed the euro had some digital snow across the western area on last nights run 12z euro drops snow across the metro next weekend. Interesting setup |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Oct 17, 2020 13:07:10 GMT -6
12Z Euro showing a burst of heavy snow/sleet on Oct 25th. Would yield a couple inches normally but temps are marginal and ground warm. Still would be an impressive burst. That's of course if it happens as currently model.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Oct 17, 2020 14:21:06 GMT -6
12Z Euro showing a burst of heavy snow/sleet on Oct 25th. Would yield a couple inches normally but temps are marginal and ground warm. Still would be an impressive burst. That's of course if it happens as currently model. Book it... I will be driving back to town Sunday. |
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Post by Jeffmw on Oct 17, 2020 20:30:47 GMT -6
12Z Euro showing a burst of heavy snow/sleet on Oct 25th. Would yield a couple inches normally but temps are marginal and ground warm. Still would be an impressive burst. That's of course if it happens as currently model. Sometimes snow falling like you mentioned could cause issues even without accumulation on the ground. |
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Post by bdgwx on Oct 17, 2020 22:15:36 GMT -6
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Oct 18, 2020 1:58:18 GMT -6
Some cold temps the 00z Gfs is printing out next week 10/26. We are going camping at Lake of the Ozark State Park. Luckly it's in a cabin and it has a wood burning stove.
Looks like a pretty big system moving across the Midwest around that time frame. Really didn't want super cold and wet. Still a ways to go. But does have my attention.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 18, 2020 6:59:12 GMT -6
Some cold temps the 00z Gfs is printing out next week 10/26. We are going camping at Lake of the Ozark State Park. Luckly it's in a cabin and it has a wood burning stove. Looks like a pretty big system moving across the Midwest around that time frame. Really didn't want super cold and wet. Still a ways to go. But does have my attention. Opening weekend for waterfowl hunting here...bring it on! Gonna be a great season. The 3 kids in our group harvested a full limit yesterday for youth season. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Oct 18, 2020 9:13:50 GMT -6
Showers developing in SW MO. Hope this rain materializes here this afternoon and tonight. Gonna be a cold rain.
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Post by Snowman99 on Oct 18, 2020 12:06:43 GMT -6
Temp has dropped about 7 degrees, the front has obviously moved thru. Down to 62 lol.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Oct 18, 2020 12:36:12 GMT -6
12z Gfs still showing big storm next week. Along with an artic airmass behind it. 😮
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Post by unclesam6 on Oct 18, 2020 13:14:53 GMT -6
EURO is at least encouraging for a good storm track... looking for that to be gone in the next 48 hours.
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Post by Snowman99 on Oct 18, 2020 13:25:39 GMT -6
Looks like a good soaker coming up farty -far. Even some lightning
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Oct 18, 2020 13:45:45 GMT -6
Waiting for it to fizzle to a few sprinkles as it approaches the city
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