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Post by unclesam6 on Oct 14, 2020 13:58:05 GMT -6
Friday will be the coldest air I've felt since last winter/spring. Was in Colorado when we had the frost last week. Never got much out of the 50s for lows when I was up there.
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Post by Snowman99 on Oct 14, 2020 14:04:11 GMT -6
Well I thought today might be the final 80 degree day, maybe next week. Sick of it.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 14, 2020 14:09:40 GMT -6
Looking at historical ENSO data, 94/95 and 06/07 are the closest matches I can find to how this winter is setting up.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Oct 14, 2020 14:19:37 GMT -6
Looking at historical ENSO data, 94/95 and 06/07 are the closest matches I can find to how this winter is setting up. I’ll take an 06/07. We had another big derecho event this summer similar to July 2006. Maybe we get another Nov 30/Dec 1st type storm. No Cardinals World Series this time though.
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mrbogs
Weather Weenie
Posts: 18
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Post by mrbogs on Oct 14, 2020 14:20:12 GMT -6
BRTN - for those of us that just lurk and love what you guys say, (I love your comments and insight BTW), can you tell me how the winters of 94/95 and 06/07 were here in STL?
EDIT: I forgot about the ice storm right after Thanksgiving...just don't recall how the rest of that winter was.
Thanks, man!
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 14, 2020 14:27:01 GMT -6
Looking at historical ENSO data, 94/95 and 06/07 are the closest matches I can find to how this winter is setting up. I’ll take an 06/07. We had another big derecho event this summer similar to July 2006. Maybe we get another Nov 30/Dec 1st type storm. No Cardinals World Series this time though. 94/95 pretty much sucked with <6" of snowfall, but I'd definitely take a winter like 06/07. The upper pattern was very supportive for cold intrusions and storms across the region with troffing near Baja and the GLR and ridging across the PNA domain.
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Post by unclesam6 on Oct 14, 2020 15:48:56 GMT -6
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Post by Snowman99 on Oct 15, 2020 2:18:00 GMT -6
Both the Euro and GFS have us near or above 80 next Thursday. This is dumb.
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Post by birddog on Oct 15, 2020 6:25:51 GMT -6
Well this morning didn't find me in a deer stand, woke up a little late! Still had time just not as much. Now for the weather related part, last forecast seen was fox2 at 10. No mention of rain, the front will come through dry...NOT! I left my gear (clothes,boots,etc) on the deck, it got a little damp! Moral of story, shame on me for trusting weatherman! End of rant.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 15, 2020 7:00:05 GMT -6
Well this morning didn't find me in a deer stand, woke up a little late! Still had time just not as much. Now for the weather related part, last forecast seen was fox2 at 10. No mention of rain, the front will come through dry...NOT! I left my gear (clothes,boots,etc) on the deck, it got a little damp! Moral of story, shame on me for trusting weatherman! End of rant. FWIW, I expected the frontal passage to be dry as well...I'm not complaining though, as it knocked down the dust and field fire potential. I'm hoping the rainfall potential next week comes to fruition...some of the model runs are showing significant amounts of rainfall across the region with a wavy frontal boundary and active flow aloft.
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Post by birddog on Oct 15, 2020 7:07:11 GMT -6
Well this morning didn't find me in a deer stand, woke up a little late! Still had time just not as much. Now for the weather related part, last forecast seen was fox2 at 10. No mention of rain, the front will come through dry...NOT! I left my gear (clothes,boots,etc) on the deck, it got a little damp! Moral of story, shame on me for trusting weatherman! End of rant. FWIW, I expected the frontal passage to be dry as well...I'm not complaining though, as it knocked down the dust and field fire potential. Totally fine with the moisture, just would have prepared differently. No big deal really. Corn was taken out in one of my stand locations and was really looking forward to hunting it. Will hit it tonight! Edit to make clear, getting up late was not on the weatherman that was me! Have a good day everyone!
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Oct 15, 2020 8:43:07 GMT -6
Both the Euro and GFS have us near or above 80 next Thursday. This is dumb. EPS is toasty for the eastern half of the US after this cool shot. Only good news is that it looks wet while it's going to be warm
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 15, 2020 9:46:53 GMT -6
Both the Euro and GFS have us near or above 80 next Thursday. This is dumb. EPS is toasty for the eastern half of the US after this cool shot. Only good news is that it looks wet while it's going to be warm
Bring it on. Probably a severe threat across the region when that energy comes out later next week.
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Post by unclesam6 on Oct 15, 2020 10:18:38 GMT -6
NOAA winter forecast all in for la nina.
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Post by unclesam6 on Oct 15, 2020 10:37:07 GMT -6
Looks like some pretty dang efficient mixing of the boundary layer PM Saturday... nearly aligned barbs. Wouldn't be surprised to see some 40+mph gusts. (central mo looks like the prime target atm)
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Post by koll27–Waterloo, IL on Oct 15, 2020 11:02:09 GMT -6
Looks like some pretty dang efficient mixing of the boundary layer PM Saturday... nearly aligned barbs. Wouldn't be surprised to see some 40+mph gusts. (central mo looks like the prime target atm) I hope not. My 8 year old is going to flip his lid if his Halloween decorations blow away again, lol.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Oct 15, 2020 11:05:00 GMT -6
Well this morning didn't find me in a deer stand, woke up a little late! Still had time just not as much. Now for the weather related part, last forecast seen was fox2 at 10. No mention of rain, the front will come through dry...NOT! I left my gear (clothes,boots,etc) on the deck, it got a little damp! Moral of story, shame on me for trusting weatherman! End of rant. Ummm... I had showers in the forecast for this morning all week. Sorry bird
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Post by mosue56 on Oct 15, 2020 13:11:16 GMT -6
Freeze warning for JeffCO tonight
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Post by REB on Oct 15, 2020 13:12:00 GMT -6
Well this morning didn't find me in a deer stand, woke up a little late! Still had time just not as much. Now for the weather related part, last forecast seen was fox2 at 10. No mention of rain, the front will come through dry...NOT! I left my gear (clothes,boots,etc) on the deck, it got a little damp! Moral of story, shame on me for trusting weatherman! End of rant. Ummm... I had showers in the forecast for this morning all week. Sorry bird I was expecting the possibility of rain.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Oct 15, 2020 16:54:45 GMT -6
Looking at historical ENSO data, 94/95 and 06/07 are the closest matches I can find to how this winter is setting up. With all due respect, did you mean 95/96? 94/95 looks El Nino-ish 1995 1 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 0 -0.2 -0.5 -0.8 -1 -1 -1 1996 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 2005 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.6 -0.8 2006 -0.8 -0.7 -0.5 -0.3 0 0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.9 2007 0.7 0.3 0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.8 -1.1 -1.4 -1.5 -1.6 2008 -1.6 -1.4 -1.2 -0.9 -0.8 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.6 -0.7 That said,
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Oct 15, 2020 17:07:54 GMT -6
That said, I'm looking for a year that is 1) immediately after or near a solar minima; 2) preceded by two weak El Ninos. I'm going to toss out 2016/2017 because of where we were at relative to solar cycle; Also 2005/2006 for same reason. The years I like at first glance for similarities are: 2010-2011, 2007-2008, 1978-1979. I also need to factor in antecedent rainfall and drought conditions/lack of to our west. The developing drought to our west is concerning to me, but what I'm seeing is a northwest flow dominating. The axis of the trough, though may set up just far enough west, to allow for clipper-esque systems to scoop up moisture, similar to what we saw in 2006 I believe, so while we may not see the typical southwestern lows bring our biggest snows, I think the pattern will be good for us in terms of snow.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 15, 2020 17:13:10 GMT -6
Good catch, Beaker...I must have been looking at the chart crosseyed, lol.
1995/1996
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Oct 15, 2020 17:25:13 GMT -6
Good catch, Beaker...I must have been looking at the chart crosseyed, lol. 1995/1996 None of the years I pick had alot of antecedent rainfall with a drought developing out west, but as you mentioned a few posts back, I think this winter, the source of our energy is going to come more from the northwest. I may temper my expectations of snow a bit from the years I picked, but I'm thinking more bullish, than bearish for now. Just would like to get a better sampling of the fall pattern before I jump in.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Oct 15, 2020 17:28:23 GMT -6
My notes so far that I took earlier this summer. last number represents antecedent rainfall. first number represents seasonal snow. A very inexact science, but fun.
3.2 2016-2017 neg: much stronger preceding el nino coming off max 41.44 36.8 2010-2011 neg: much stronger preceding el nino; much stronger La Nina similar 39.07 30.2 2007-2008 not a preceding double el nino similar 30.57 10.5 2005-2006 coming off max 37.85 26.6 1978-1979 did not quite go into La Nina similar 37.71
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Post by unclesam6 on Oct 15, 2020 17:48:24 GMT -6
BRTN - for those of us that just lurk and love what you guys say, (I love your comments and insight BTW), can you tell me how the winters of 94/95 and 06/07 were here in STL? EDIT: I forgot about the ice storm right after Thanksgiving...just don't recall how the rest of that winter was. Thanks, man! I believe there was another significant icing event along I44 thru SGF January of 2007 as well.. That was a major winter for ice storms.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Oct 15, 2020 17:52:38 GMT -6
so, in 1995/1996, it looks like we got about 26 inches of snow. In 2005/2006 about 10 inches of snow. In 2006/2007, close to 13 inches of snow. Again, while others on here don't agree with the solar cycle, I'm still going to give some weight to it. I actually think 2007/2008 is closer, as it looks like a weak La Nina, but just was not preceded by 2 weak El Ninos. I'm just adding some method to the madness. I think if there was a way to capture the dominant upper level flow historically, that might give me better clues than looking at broad teleconnection indexes. The elephant in the room of course...NAO has been pretty resistant to go negative in the winter months. EPO has been our player for the winter. None of these indexes are very predictable, IMO.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Oct 15, 2020 17:58:05 GMT -6
BRTN - for those of us that just lurk and love what you guys say, (I love your comments and insight BTW), can you tell me how the winters of 94/95 and 06/07 were here in STL? EDIT: I forgot about the ice storm right after Thanksgiving...just don't recall how the rest of that winter was. Thanks, man! I believe there was another significant icing event along I44 thru SGF January of 2007 as well.. That was a major winter for ice storms. That's the other thing...isn't La Ninas known for 1) ice storms; and 2) tornadic outbreaks. I know the basic pattern for La Nina is for cold up north, and that cold will bleed southward from time to time as a shallow air mass. That said, I just had my insurance inspection today for hail damage. They said my roof "was smoked". My roofing company was concerned dealing with the particular homeowners insurance company, but this was easy. Looks like I'm getting a roof. I had hoped to hold off, but doesn't look like I should hold off. New roof is coming this Fall, along with new gutters. Now, I'm going to push for no hail for a few years. Wish I could have had siding damage too to replace that hardy board.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 15, 2020 18:43:08 GMT -6
06/07 was definitely an active one with the two big ice storms across the Bi-State. I was attending Western Illinois in Macomb and it was a harsh winter up there...they closed campus twice for deep, drifting snow(first time in history, apparently). We got 12" during the Nov. 30th/Dec. 1st storm in Macomb and about the same in February with near-blizzard conditions.
I'll never forget the thunder and lightning during that ice storm in January of '07 while I was home on break.
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Post by weatherj on Oct 16, 2020 0:22:24 GMT -6
95/96 was quite cold if I do remember correctly. I believe in February of '96 an arctic outbreak hit and we got down into the -10's one morning. As far as snowfall that winter, I do not recall it being overly snowy, but memory must have evaded me as beaker pointed out that it was quite a bit above average. 06/07 was a world of difference from NW to SE across the area. NW sections saw major impacts ( big snow and mixed precip on the southeast fringes of the NW sections) with the Nov/Dec 06 and the Jan '07 storms. Central sections got nailed with the ice storm in 06 and a less, but still solid icing event in Jan '07 before temps warmed up that Sunday and it rained....all liquid rain and uneventful/meh southeast with both storms. This past winter was similar in the NW to SE spread across the cwa. Although much more toned down in storm intensity vs. 06/07.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Oct 16, 2020 11:35:08 GMT -6
GFS has a couple arctic air outbreaks at the end of the month. Would make for one very cold Halloween
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