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Post by jmg378s on Nov 2, 2020 18:51:03 GMT -6
Raw T# up to 7.7...wow. If that's an accurate proxy for intensity in this case then 150mph is way too low.
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Post by jmg378s on Nov 2, 2020 18:54:08 GMT -6
Uh...raw T# up to 7.9 now. Pretty sure that's the highest I've ever seen in the Atlantic.
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Post by jmg378s on Nov 2, 2020 18:55:51 GMT -6
Wish recon would hurry up and get in there...Eta is going apesh!t right now.
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Post by bdgwx on Nov 2, 2020 19:20:43 GMT -6
Raw T# is now 8.1.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 2, 2020 19:30:45 GMT -6
What’s raw T?
Edit: did some research. Oh my.
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Post by jmg378s on Nov 2, 2020 19:37:17 GMT -6
For those that are curious and wondering about T numbers. They are assigned based on a old but still useful technique of estimating tropical cyclone intensity from satellite imagery called the Dvorak Technique. It's done automatically now with new satellites and back end processing these days. A final T# >= 8.0 often corresponds to storms with less than 900mb MSLP. Numbers over 8 currently are just raw (realtime) and it takes a while of tracking the storm to get to the final number.
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Post by jmg378s on Nov 2, 2020 19:38:16 GMT -6
What’s raw T? Edit: did some research. Oh my. Ha, I was typing an explanation before I saw your question. And yes, oh my is the correct interpretation. |
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Post by jmg378s on Nov 2, 2020 19:40:07 GMT -6
My best guess is the eye is about 4nm in diameter right now.
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Post by jmg378s on Nov 2, 2020 19:55:56 GMT -6
Recon not too far away, these could be some pretty epic passes through the eye.
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Post by bdgwx on Nov 2, 2020 20:03:40 GMT -6
There is an unofficial report on americanwx that ADT raw T# is now 8.4. Patricia had an 8.3.
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Post by jmg378s on Nov 2, 2020 20:16:34 GMT -6
I'm looking at mesosector GOES-16 IR and the eye continues to warm while the -80C CDO expands. Just insane...would be very surprised if recon doesn't find sub-900mb pressures.
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 2, 2020 20:55:25 GMT -6
First pass-- ~927mb, 150-160mph winds.
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Post by jmg378s on Nov 2, 2020 21:00:32 GMT -6
First pass-- ~927mb, 150-160mph winds. All I can do is shrug me shoulders... Looking like a Cat 5 and being one seem to be at odds. |
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weatherfan17- Denver, CO
Junior Forecaster
From Ste. Genevieve, MO currently residing in the Mile High City, Denver CO
Posts: 436 
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Post by weatherfan17- Denver, CO on Nov 2, 2020 23:15:05 GMT -6
Happy Birthday Chris!
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 3, 2020 5:20:15 GMT -6
Vote vote vote, if you're not one of the 100 million who have already.
Eta made a run at cat 5, didn't quite make it. 6z GFS has one wild wonky track for it the next week or 2. Crazy stuff.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 3, 2020 8:26:11 GMT -6
Thankfully Eta weakened some and took a big jog south, avoiding a catastrophic eyewall landfall on Puerto Cabezas. Still, the amount of rainfall there will be astounding.
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Post by bdgwx on Nov 3, 2020 9:01:52 GMT -6
Back to the ADT from Eta. It's important to understand the difference between the Final T# and Raw T#. The raw value is a calculation of the scene as it is in realtime and without adjustments. The final value is the previous 3-hour average with constraints applied. When the raw value was at 8.4 the final value was only 6.3. It was low because of the averaging AND because its rate of change was clamped at only 1.3T/6hr during this time. During periods of rapid intensification the final value can lag the raw value as it spools in. This is why many forecasters were focusing on the raw value. And the reason why ADT was even being used in the first place is because satellite was the only observational tool available since many of the recon missions had to be aborted. You can get the ADT values from this site or for Eta specifically here. Like many I too was fooled by Eta's epic satellite presentation. Usually 8.0+ values are suggestive of sub 900mb cyclones. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 3, 2020 10:22:21 GMT -6
GFS has now reverted back to a more sheared out system *for early next week. Anemic compared to the last several days of data.
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 3, 2020 14:04:51 GMT -6
EURO still looks like it could pack a punch with what little data is provided on pivotal
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 3, 2020 14:05:56 GMT -6
Hit at least 75 degrees so far today. Tomorrow conditions are even more conducive to warming so 80s are well in play tomorrow and pretty much through early next week. Look for temps to both over perform in the day and maybe at night as well as in get cooler at least initially due to low humidity until later this weekend and next week.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 3, 2020 14:08:00 GMT -6
EURO still looks like it could pack a punch with what little data is provided on pivotal Yes, but timing for at least the metro area is not ideal, so 12Z runs over all are a crapshoot if your hoping or wanting exciting weather. It's the infamous the system 'cloaks' on the models for a couple days only to re-emerge about 3-4 days before the event. Time will tell if that happens this time. |
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Post by RyanD on Nov 3, 2020 16:15:34 GMT -6
Chris, please see your PM. Thanks!
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 4, 2020 8:37:48 GMT -6
What a night.
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Post by Jeffmw on Nov 4, 2020 13:03:17 GMT -6
What are the long term models showing?
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 4, 2020 15:20:55 GMT -6
80* at Lambert.
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 4, 2020 15:32:48 GMT -6
this 80 degree sh1t can end any time now.
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Post by ajd446 on Nov 4, 2020 15:53:04 GMT -6
It is a beautiful day with the low humidity.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Nov 4, 2020 15:57:28 GMT -6
Hopefully today is the last day I mowbfor the season.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Nov 4, 2020 23:20:06 GMT -6
Some old-schoolers would call this true indian summer. Temp 80 or above after freeze/frost. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 5, 2020 10:31:54 GMT -6
00z GFS suggesting a conditional severe/tornado threat next Tuesday as the secondary wave ejects across the region. Severe parameters aren't eye popping, but definitely supportive of upright convection and rotating updrafts. EC is less supportive, with a much flatter/sheared wave. I suspect models are struggling with the evolution of this system, with several pieces of energy involved still well offshore with a complex interaction once they arrive. This definitely bears watching, as we are smack dab in the prime cool-season severe weather stretch.
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