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Post by jmg378s on Nov 5, 2020 12:27:37 GMT -6
Yeah, severe parameters may not be eye popping but I agree it bears watching. Looks like notoriously tricky high shear low CAPE type of setup.
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 5, 2020 16:40:30 GMT -6
Frankly, I think this winter is a no go.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 5, 2020 16:58:45 GMT -6
Frankly, I think this winter is a no go. Why do you say that? I’m feeling good about it. Cool Octobers/Warm Novembers normally equal solid Decembers at the very least. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 5, 2020 17:10:33 GMT -6
pretty healthy La Nina is usually not so good. Hope I'm wrong, I usually am  |
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Nov 5, 2020 17:14:02 GMT -6
I’d be good with 70s all winter. Minus a week or two of non stop snow lol
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 5, 2020 20:43:26 GMT -6
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 5, 2020 21:17:02 GMT -6
That’s cool, but I don’t know what to compare it to. Is that pretty intact/tight compared to previous years? |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 6, 2020 3:46:39 GMT -6
That's pretty cool...looks like it throws NA a good lobe towards the 20th. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 6, 2020 11:42:06 GMT -6
That's pretty cool...looks like it throws NA a good lobe towards the 20th. 12z GFS shows a nice little compact shortwave that gets a bit of work done around that time too. |
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Post by ElburnDave on Nov 6, 2020 14:41:16 GMT -6
Hope there is nothing significant going on in the UMW during that time frame. We have to drive to South Dakota to move my son home from college for Christmas break. He has to move everything out so the university can do a "deep cleaning" due to covid. Then move back in early January. SMH!
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Nov 6, 2020 15:02:24 GMT -6
Hope there is nothing significant going on in the UMW during that time frame. We have to drive to South Dakota to move my son home from college for Christmas break. He has to move everything out so the university can do a "deep cleaning" due to covid. Then move back in early January. SMH! You'd still have to move it out but would it make sense to put the stuff in a storage locker there over the Christmas break rather than bring it all the way home? |
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Post by ElburnDave on Nov 6, 2020 15:22:42 GMT -6
Hope there is nothing significant going on in the UMW during that time frame. We have to drive to South Dakota to move my son home from college for Christmas break. He has to move everything out so the university can do a "deep cleaning" due to covid. Then move back in early January. SMH! You'd still have to move it out but would it make sense to put the stuff in a storage locker there over the Christmas break rather than bring it all the way home? We had the same thought, but there's a risk they won't return to in-person learning for spring semester. We have to head there either way, so we've decided to just haul it home. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 6, 2020 23:23:32 GMT -6
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Post by Jeffmw on Nov 7, 2020 9:00:21 GMT -6
Since the board is so quiet not much in recent models? Guess that Severe weather threat I read on here not much of a worry?
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 7, 2020 10:34:06 GMT -6
well that was a long 4 days lol
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 7, 2020 11:18:07 GMT -6
Since the board is so quiet not much in recent models? Guess that Severe weather threat I read on here not much of a worry? Well, it's 84 hours out, so... SPC is going with the typical cool weather season "not enough instability" forecast so far...yet models are consistently showing several hundred J/KG SBCAPE, strong upper level divergence and dewpoints nearing 60*F with 30-40kts 0-1km shear. I suspect there's a tornado threat with this setup, likely maximized across N/Central IL similar to the outbreak a couple years ago on Dec 1st that spawned 25+ tornadoes. This doesn't appear to be as potent of a setup, though...but bears close watching. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 7, 2020 13:08:13 GMT -6
No doubt Tuesday needs to be watched carefully. Brtn is spot on about SPCs bias against these types of events.
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 7, 2020 17:59:52 GMT -6
18z nam certainly supports a potential tornado threat in central and east central MO.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 7, 2020 20:32:15 GMT -6
18z nam certainly supports a potential tornado threat in central and east central MO. It sure does...a bit slower frontal passage with it, and SBCAPES around 500j/kg...that's more than enough instability in the lowest 1-3km for tornadogenesis given the strong low-level shear. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 7, 2020 22:55:42 GMT -6
uhhhh
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 7, 2020 23:45:37 GMT -6
Ya I cringed watching that
Tuesday definitely has some potential but low CAPE values look to keep things tame
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Nov 8, 2020 11:54:17 GMT -6
Heckuva' blizzard going on in northern Montana
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Nov 8, 2020 14:13:54 GMT -6
Warm enough for one of these today! I hope you are enjoying this glorious God given beautiful day!  |
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Post by maddogchief on Nov 8, 2020 14:22:04 GMT -6
well that was a long 4 days lol Um, it’s going to be a longer 4-8 weeks |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 8, 2020 15:06:11 GMT -6
well that was a long 4 days lol Um, it’s going to be a longer 4-8 weeks Maybe theatrically, but from an outcomes perspective it’s all over but the crying |
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Post by Jeffmw on Nov 8, 2020 19:13:28 GMT -6
I know its only 7pm but does anyone els feel like it’s 10pm?
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Nov 8, 2020 19:34:16 GMT -6
I know its only 7pm but does anyone els feel like it’s 10pm? Yep everyday in the winter. I hate it being dark when I get off work. |
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Nov 8, 2020 19:38:42 GMT -6
I know its only 7pm but does anyone els feel like it’s 10pm? Oh my yes. I wanted to go to bed at 6:30. Of course I've been awake since 4 am, that might have something to do with it. |
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Post by cozpregon on Nov 8, 2020 19:42:27 GMT -6
Feels like 830 on a Tuesday to me
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Post by cozpregon on Nov 8, 2020 19:43:58 GMT -6
Weak lapse rates on Tuesday- would seem to keep things from getting severe to me
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