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Post by dschreib on Nov 8, 2020 19:49:10 GMT -6
I'm hearing reports of a flash and a boom around 6:15 in Marissa tonight. Any reports of meteors / sonic booms in the area?
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 8, 2020 20:19:02 GMT -6
Game show host legend and primary host of 'Jeopardy' Alex Trebek has passed earlier today at his home surrounded by family at the age of 80. Cause of death is unknown officially but likely may have been in part or connection to his battle with Stage 4 Pancreatic Cancer.
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Nov 8, 2020 20:23:10 GMT -6
I'm hearing reports of a flash and a boom around 6:15 in Marissa tonight. Any reports of meteors / sonic booms in the area? I heard the boom but did not see the flash |
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 8, 2020 21:07:43 GMT -6
had some folks on FB messaging my weather page about a meteor
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 8, 2020 21:45:55 GMT -6
It's related to the Northern Taurid Meteor Shower that's underway this weekend, early next week. The source from comet Encke. Only produces 3-10 meteors an hour, however the meteors from it tend to be quite large about dime to half dollar sized compared to peas or smaller for most other meteor showers. Because of that it can produce impressive fireball meteors and yes, occasionally sonic booms if the meteor is large enough and penetrates the atmosphere into the stratosphere.
Fun fact: Taurids have a tendency to leave 'trails' in the upper atmosphere that can persist for several minutes...
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 8, 2020 21:52:38 GMT -6
It's related to the Northern Taurid Meteor Shower that's underway this weekend, early next week. The source from comet Encke. Only produces 3-10 meteors an hour, however the meteors from it tend to be quite large about dime to half dollar sized compared to peas or smaller for most other meteor showers. Because of that it can produce impressive fireball meteors and yes, occasionally sonic booms if the meteor is large enough and penetrates the atmosphere into the stratosphere. I was driving south on 44 Thursday night near Eureka and saw a meteor streak across the sky and burn up. It had a decent size to it |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 9, 2020 6:08:46 GMT -6
I saw a smaller blue/green fireball up around Shipman Friday night.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 9, 2020 9:59:17 GMT -6
Weak lapse rates on Tuesday- would seem to keep things from getting severe to me I noticed models have backed off in that regard.. earlier runs were showing 6.5-7*C/km but are showing 5.5-6 now. The track of the mid-level vort max has trended further N/NW...probably why lapse rates are weaker. The jet dynamics don't look as strong, either. A lot will depend on how much, if any clearing we see. NAM shows potential for at least broken clouds, with 500j/kg+ CAPE. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 9, 2020 10:00:26 GMT -6
marginal from the SPC
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Nov 9, 2020 12:27:12 GMT -6
What a stretch of some of the most remarkable weather we have ever seen for November. It can stay like this all winter long as far as im concerned. It sure beats the crap out of 34 and rainy.
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Post by ajd446 on Nov 9, 2020 12:33:27 GMT -6
Agreed sunny and 75 to 80 all winter would be absolutely wonderful. This year i would love a record warm winter so with the virus we all can be outside and get fresh air.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Nov 9, 2020 12:41:36 GMT -6
Looked at gfs and heights and 500 thicknesses hanging out around 564 mid month before falling weekend b4 thsnksgiving, but even then, with placement of ridge, that shld be temporary. Would love for Thanksgiving to sunny and mild to get family gatherings to spread out to outside. Actually wld be nice to see a warm holiday season to keep the covid and flu in check then all heck can break loose in january and february. Dealing with snow by veterans day and having multiple rain and 34 events all winter is really not my idea of a good winter.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 9, 2020 13:04:40 GMT -6
Looked at gfs and heights and 500 thicknesses hanging out around 564 mid month before falling weekend b4 thsnksgiving, but even then, with placement of ridge, that shld be temporary. Would love for Thanksgiving to sunny and mild to get family gatherings to spread out to outside. Actually wld be nice to see a warm holiday season to keep the covid and flu in check then all heck can break loose in january and february. Dealing with snow by veterans day and having multiple rain and 34 events all winter is really not my idea of a good winter. About to hit record hospitalizations so don’t think the weather is going to keep anything in check. Counter argument is probably that nice weather means more active travel and mixing of family units. I would take a massive blizzard that deters travel. Memorial Day and 4th of a July seem to support the counter argument. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 9, 2020 13:12:17 GMT -6
15z rap not holding back any punches near the triple point. Looks like a slight from SPC would seem wise on a line from Kirksville to Rockford.
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Post by cozpregon on Nov 9, 2020 13:26:05 GMT -6
Weak lapse rates on Tuesday- would seem to keep things from getting severe to me I noticed models have backed off in that regard.. earlier runs were showing 6.5-7*C/km but are showing 5.5-6 now. The track of the mid-level vort max has trended further N/NW...probably why lapse rates are weaker. The jet dynamics don't look as strong, either. A lot will depend on how much, if any clearing we see. NAM shows potential for at least broken clouds, with 500j/kg+ CAPE. Seem to be trending back up this morning |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 9, 2020 13:29:03 GMT -6
75*/60* in November ain’t it
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Nov 9, 2020 13:34:45 GMT -6
Looked at gfs and heights and 500 thicknesses hanging out around 564 mid month before falling weekend b4 thsnksgiving, but even then, with placement of ridge, that shld be temporary. Would love for Thanksgiving to sunny and mild to get family gatherings to spread out to outside. Actually wld be nice to see a warm holiday season to keep the covid and flu in check then all heck can break loose in january and february. Dealing with snow by veterans day and having multiple rain and 34 events all winter is really not my idea of a good winter. About to hit record hospitalizations so don’t think the weather is going to keep anything in check. Counter argument is probably that nice weather means more active travel and mixing of family units. I would take a massive blizzard that deters travel. Memorial Day and 4th of a July seem to support the counter argument. Massive blizzards will impede medical care. Dont really want that. Im just talking about our best chance. Comparing july 4 to other summer days isnt valid bc of course cases are going to climb. They are going to climb over the holidays too. But maybe not as much if ppl spread out. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 9, 2020 13:54:58 GMT -6
About to hit record hospitalizations so don’t think the weather is going to keep anything in check. Counter argument is probably that nice weather means more active travel and mixing of family units. I would take a massive blizzard that deters travel. Memorial Day and 4th of a July seem to support the counter argument. Massive blizzards will impede medical care. Dont really want that. Im just talking about our best chance. Comparing july 4 to other summer days isnt valid bc of course cases are going to climb. They are going to climb over the holidays too. But maybe not as much if ppl spread out. The massive blizzard was in jest. Comparing summer days to Independence Day is completely valid because my entire point is nice weather means more traveling that offsets at least some of the benefit of people having the option to distance. Regardless, shifting back to the weather, tomorrow looks mildly interesting (never turn your back on severe weather), but I’m leaning towards a dud in the metro. The mild November hasn’t changed my thinking for this winter. I continue to believe December will actually be a winter month across the Midwest this year. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 9, 2020 14:00:15 GMT -6
Today's record high of 78 was set in 1975. The winter of 75/76 was a decent year... 25.3 inches. Not the monster the following years became... but a decent year. That seems reasonable to me.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 9, 2020 14:18:11 GMT -6
Today's record high of 78 was set in 1975. The winter of 75/76 was a decent year... 25.3 inches. Not the monster the following years became... but a decent year. That seems reasonable to me. Chris are you showing your hand for this winter? I continue to think this winter will be solid. A very warm November so far and I think that bodes well for us. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 9, 2020 14:59:20 GMT -6
Today's record high of 78 was set in 1975. The winter of 75/76 was a decent year... 25.3 inches. Not the monster the following years became... but a decent year. That seems reasonable to me. Chris are you showing your hand for this winter? I continue to think this winter will be solid. A very warm November so far and I think that bodes well for us. I did a story on exactly this last week. It was pretty impressive to me, digging through the data. Of our 25 warmest Novembers since 1970, whether or not COU saw above or below average snowfall for the winter was split exactly down the middle. I believe it was 13/12 for less than average snowfall. abc17news.com/weather/2020/11/05/warm-weather-in-november-does-it-mean-anything-for-the-winter-ahead/ |
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 9, 2020 15:16:21 GMT -6
St. Louis (KSTL) has never experienced more than 6 consecutive
days of high temperatures at or above 75 degrees in the month of
November. Today makes 7 days and tomorrow will make 8 if the
forecast verifies. You have to go back to 1999 for a stretch of
weather like this when the high temperature was at or above 75
degrees between 11/5 and 11/10. Records for KSTL date back to 1874
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 9, 2020 15:52:52 GMT -6
15z rap not holding back any punches near the triple point. Looks like a slight from SPC would seem wise on a line from Kirksville to Rockford. Soundings from north central Mo tomorrow afternoon look favorable for some spin ups. These cool season severe threats always seem to produce near the triple point |
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 9, 2020 16:20:58 GMT -6
21z RAP even more robust.
18z NAM also seeming to pick up on that pocket of increased instability near the TP
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 9, 2020 17:25:34 GMT -6
Yea, not uncommon to be in the 70’s or make a run at 80 in November, but the duration is rather unprecedented.
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Post by ndolan387 on Nov 9, 2020 18:42:43 GMT -6
It looks like we tied the record of 78 today from 1975.
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Nov 9, 2020 18:46:56 GMT -6
I just saw a meteor go across the sky it was a green flash with it it’s pretty cool
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 9, 2020 20:01:41 GMT -6
anyone know what the heck is going on with this storm?
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 9, 2020 21:48:47 GMT -6
Eta is just going to spin itself out over the GOM and die a graceful death. What a crazy and resilient storm it has been.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Nov 10, 2020 7:01:44 GMT -6
Slight risk up. Right where you said it would be.
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