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Post by ajd446 on Nov 10, 2020 7:03:20 GMT -6
Slight risknincludes st.charles county on north. Lools like a wild afternoon
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 10, 2020 7:40:25 GMT -6
Not sure I'd call it wild... but certainly interesting. A little more instability than forecast would certainly up the ante a bit...but what is forecast is enough to keep eyes open. Gradient winds alone will be nothing to sneeze at ahead of the front. These razor thin margins are always interesting to forecast. I'm trying to keep the mentions alive for strong storms without over reacting. This is certainly not a high end event.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Nov 10, 2020 7:55:34 GMT -6
We now have Theta in the Atlantic. The path almost looks like the opposite of tropical systems during the Cape Verde season. Heading towards the mouth of the Mediterranean.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 10, 2020 8:37:27 GMT -6
Wouldn't be surprised to see a strong tornado or two across NE MO and WCentral/NW IL this afternoon if supercell structures/rotating updrafts can be maintained along the line. Very strong 0-3km SRH and 0-1km shear values, with SBCAPE potentially exceeding 1000j/kg.
Here in the Metro region, we are more inline for a narrow squall line, with potential for a quick spinup or two along the leading edge and isolated strong/severe gusts.
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Post by bdgwx on Nov 10, 2020 8:58:03 GMT -6
We now have Theta in the Atlantic. The path almost looks like the opposite of tropical systems during the Cape Verde season. Heading towards the mouth of the Mediterranean. Iota has a good chance of appearing in the next 5 days as well. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 10, 2020 9:46:44 GMT -6
Not much directional shear around the metro today so I’d expect some wind gust to be about all we see with the storms. Further north around the quad cities directional shear is much better. I agree with BRTN that a strong tornado or two can’t be ruled out up there
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 10, 2020 10:43:42 GMT -6
Vis sat shows a band of clearing across E/central MO...that's going to help to boost instability quite a bit within that corridor ahead of the front.
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Post by mosue56 on Nov 10, 2020 10:45:07 GMT -6
Any warnings along that front yet? Radar looks interesting!
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Nov 10, 2020 10:47:02 GMT -6
Any warnings along that front yet? Radar looks interesting! Looks like just one severe thunderstorm warning that just got issued. The National Weather Service in Pleasant Hill has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southeastern Adair County in northeastern Missouri... Northern Macon County in north central Missouri... * Until 1115 AM CST. * At 1044 AM CST, a severe thunderstorm was located 9 miles west of Atlanta, or 12 miles southwest of La Plata, moving northeast at 55 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 10, 2020 11:13:16 GMT -6
KEAX radar velocities already showing some rotation within the kinks of the bowing segments down around Sedalia...
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Nov 10, 2020 11:32:06 GMT -6
Severe Thunder Storm watch issued.
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Post by birddog on Nov 10, 2020 11:50:09 GMT -6
BRTN, will this be our drought buster? I suspect the rain will dry up or split and go around us.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 10, 2020 11:59:18 GMT -6
BRTN, will this be our drought buster? I suspect the rain will dry up or split and go around us. No way...we'll be lucky to get a quarter inch. |
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Nov 10, 2020 12:21:29 GMT -6
Ya at this moment any decent action looks to stay north of 70
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 10, 2020 12:24:50 GMT -6
lots of blue sky and sun here
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Post by ajd446 on Nov 10, 2020 12:33:03 GMT -6
I think along and north of 70 will see a severe squall. Line is back building amd it.is sunny hot and juicy
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Nov 10, 2020 13:38:36 GMT -6
Sun has peaked out on this side of the river finally.
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Post by mosue56 on Nov 10, 2020 13:46:05 GMT -6
Festus has blue sky too!
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 10, 2020 13:53:15 GMT -6
Classic tornadic QLCS near Davenport
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Nov 10, 2020 13:53:45 GMT -6
Blue sunny skies here as well. Really only expecting a little rain though.
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Post by mosue56 on Nov 10, 2020 14:10:29 GMT -6
And just like that poof the blue is gone!
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Post by REB on Nov 10, 2020 14:14:08 GMT -6
Mulched leaves yesterday. Yard is covered again.
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Post by birddog on Nov 10, 2020 14:16:30 GMT -6
Just started to cloud up here. These winds though, wow! I wish my vue was better exposed to southerly winds. I would guess gust around 35-40? The corn shucks are flying high and far with a few dust devils as well.
P.S. As I finished, a quick look out west and I can see blue sky mixing in again.
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Post by ajd446 on Nov 10, 2020 14:49:49 GMT -6
Looks like super cells developing heading toward metro
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 10, 2020 15:04:11 GMT -6
Those are not supercells.
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Post by eurekakim on Nov 10, 2020 15:15:57 GMT -6
Sunny in Eureka.
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Nov 10, 2020 15:16:26 GMT -6
Hard to tell but there’s a bit of a twist just SW of union on that little segment.
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Nov 10, 2020 15:19:32 GMT -6
Well it’s gone now.
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 10, 2020 15:19:53 GMT -6
little to no signals defined wintry pattern on any of the globals... MAYBE something from the GFS after the 20th... but until then near or above average. Meh.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 10, 2020 15:24:10 GMT -6
Notch near Peoria sticks out like a sore thumb.
I await the sweet relief of the cold front
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