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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 12, 2020 13:20:46 GMT -6
If you squint hard enough you can start to see something potentially interesting the weekend before Thanksgiving. The D10 range shows slight potential on the gem and gefs. At least some cold air has made an appearance in the models over the next couple weeks (along with some warm days). I can deal with some up and down, but straight torch would be a bummer for the entire month. EURO tipping its hand at something too. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 12, 2020 14:13:20 GMT -6
If you squint hard enough you can start to see something potentially interesting the weekend before Thanksgiving. The D10 range shows slight potential on the gem and gefs. At least some cold air has made an appearance in the models over the next couple weeks (along with some warm days). I can deal with some up and down, but straight torch would be a bummer for the entire month. EURO tipping its hand at something too. 12z euro going with GEFS member number 11 lol. That would be an impressive storm across the region |
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Post by bdgwx on Nov 12, 2020 15:35:00 GMT -6
Uh oh...HWRF, HMON, COAMPS, and HAFS all have Iota reaching cat 4 intensity.
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Post by ndolan387 on Nov 12, 2020 15:44:53 GMT -6
This may of already been mentioned. 1999-2000 and 2004-2005 are possible analogs for this coming winter. 1999-2000's snowfall was above normal at 25.7". 2004-2005's snowfall was a little below normal at 14.8". I took the average of those two for fun and it's 20.25". Besides 2018-2019 that would be the highest snowfall for the winter season since 2013-2014 (where we had 27.2"). That was a snowy period because the year before in 2012-2013 we had a whopping 31.4"!
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Nov 12, 2020 15:52:39 GMT -6
Are those radar echoes I'm seeing actually dropping rain or is it verga?
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 12, 2020 16:20:42 GMT -6
Conditions aren’t favorable for winds to mix down but the LLJ will be cranking Saturday night  |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 12, 2020 17:05:18 GMT -6
This may of already been mentioned. 1999-2000 and 2004-2005 are possible analogs for this coming winter. 1999-2000's snowfall was above normal at 25.7". 2004-2005's snowfall was a little below normal at 14.8". I took the average of those two for fun and it's 20.25". Besides 2018-2019 that would be the highest snowfall for the winter season since 2013-2014 (where we had 27.2"). That was a snowy period because the year before in 2012-2013 we had a whopping 31.4"! Yea, Mother Nature threw us a bit of a bone there after having to endure the summer of 2012 aka the blast furnace from hades. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 12, 2020 17:39:43 GMT -6
This may of already been mentioned. 1999-2000 and 2004-2005 are possible analogs for this coming winter. 1999-2000's snowfall was above normal at 25.7". 2004-2005's snowfall was a little below normal at 14.8". I took the average of those two for fun and it's 20.25". Besides 2018-2019 that would be the highest snowfall for the winter season since 2013-2014 (where we had 27.2"). That was a snowy period because the year before in 2012-2013 we had a whopping 31.4"! Yea, Mother Nature threw us a bit of a bone there after having to endure the summer of 2012 aka the blast furnace from hades. I'll never forget 3 thundersnow events in 30 days back in 2013. That was a bookmark winter for me. |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Nov 12, 2020 19:19:10 GMT -6
Here comes all the lockdowns, restrictions and closers. Second wave in progress.
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Post by ndolan387 on Nov 12, 2020 19:33:48 GMT -6
Yea, Mother Nature threw us a bit of a bone there after having to endure the summer of 2012 aka the blast furnace from hades. I'll never forget 3 thundersnow events in 30 days back in 2013. That was a bookmark winter for me. The good ole days |
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Post by ndolan387 on Nov 12, 2020 19:41:35 GMT -6
This may of already been mentioned. 1999-2000 and 2004-2005 are possible analogs for this coming winter. 1999-2000's snowfall was above normal at 25.7". 2004-2005's snowfall was a little below normal at 14.8". I took the average of those two for fun and it's 20.25". Besides 2018-2019 that would be the highest snowfall for the winter season since 2013-2014 (where we had 27.2"). That was a snowy period because the year before in 2012-2013 we had a whopping 31.4"! Yea, Mother Nature threw us a bit of a bone there after having to endure the summer of 2012 aka the blast furnace from hades. True that winter was nice relief. That was a terrible summer. I remember 8 consecutive days of 102-108 air temp, 120ish heat index! The hottest stretch in terms of quantity that I can remember in my life. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 12, 2020 19:52:45 GMT -6
Here comes all the lockdowns, restrictions and closers. Second wave in progress. Missouri won't do anything. Been wide open since may or June, it won't change. Local municipalities will have to do it, which the probably will. 160k new cases today. It's going nuts. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 12, 2020 19:56:08 GMT -6
Here comes all the lockdowns, restrictions and closers. Second wave in progress. Missouri won't do anything. Been wide open since may or June, it won't change. Local municipalities will have to do it, which the probably will. 160k new cases today. It's going nuts. Heard about truck morgues shipping out of El Paso Tx. Next 2-3 weeks will really show "how good" we've gotten at keeping people alive with emergency covid cases. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 12, 2020 20:53:30 GMT -6
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 12, 2020 21:11:56 GMT -6
Missouri won't do anything. Been wide open since may or June, it won't change. Local municipalities will have to do it, which the probably will. 160k new cases today. It's going nuts. Heard about truck morgues shipping out of El Paso Tx. Next 2-3 weeks will really show "how good" we've gotten at keeping people alive with emergency covid cases. Eventually, you run out of capacity. 67,000 hospitalizations is absurd. Put all our eggs in the vaccine basket and now we watch the train wreck. Glad we don’t have any big gatherings coming up...oh wait. Interested to see if the quick shot of winter cold does in New York next. They are teetering and that might push them over the edge. |
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Post by scmhack on Nov 13, 2020 6:51:01 GMT -6
Here comes all the lockdowns, restrictions and closers. Second wave in progress. Work in pharma. We've been anticipating this since mid October. And not one bit of it means anything if St Charles stays open. God this year has been depressing for my career. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 13, 2020 7:29:37 GMT -6
My hope/expectation is that once the vaccine is out and enough people get it to where the numbers start dropping dramatically (lots have had it already anyway), we will see something like the roaring 20's where people are just so relieved and excited to get out and live life again. It will likely resemble something like a post-war attitude and economy.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Nov 13, 2020 8:14:56 GMT -6
Not a covid expert here, but i am a data expert. We have fumbled the ball out of the gates since last spring on capturing a good set of statistics on covid. Keep practicing good hygiene, only go out when needed, and be mindful of large gatherings in your home or wherever you celebrate. Dont trust the "almost there for a vaccine" reports. Its often the last 10% of progress that takes the longest. Its been politicized, so im not going to venture any guesses. This season will certainly change the local retail landscape too. This season will also be interesting on the wx pattern. I think the upper midwest will be big time winners for winter. Im not sure where we will end up for snow. I have a number in mind but i want to chk a few things. What does the winner get?
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Post by mchafin on Nov 13, 2020 8:15:43 GMT -6
My hope/expectation is that once the vaccine is out and enough people get it to where the numbers start dropping dramatically (lots have had it already anyway), we will see something like the roaring 20's where people are just so relieved and excited to get out and live life again. It will likely resemble something like a post-war attitude and economy. While I am hopeful that a vaccine will help reduce the rate of infection and reduce spread, it may be months before it's available beyond first responders, children, and elderly. While we wait for the vaccine, I think we should do the following: 1) Pray for snow 2) Wear a mask 3) Avoid large groups 4) Social Distance If we do those things, we'll get snow and hopefully reduce the spread, and keep people out of the hospital and out of lines for Urgent Cares. |
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cowboy
Wishcaster
10 miles west of rolla
Posts: 197 
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Post by cowboy on Nov 13, 2020 9:11:36 GMT -6
Very weird how some people get deathly sick and some breeze right on through. 45 year old male here was positive for it about a month ago. I Had very minor issues with it. Low fever lost all smell some minor body aches and was tired. Never really felt bad just not as much energy as normal. Stayed away from everyone for a couple weeks now 4 weeks later I feel like normal. I never even had a cough from it. Just a weird deal.
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Post by mosue56 on Nov 13, 2020 9:20:37 GMT -6
Glad you are ok now, Cowboy!
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 13, 2020 10:43:39 GMT -6
I don't forsee this outbreak going away until herd immunity is reached, and we're not there yet. I honestly believe that these "restrictions" that we've put in place are just delaying that process. Cases and hospitalizations are apparently on the increase, but mortality data from the CDC doesn't really reflect that trend. I think most of the "high risk" individuals that were most susceptible have already passed and it's a matter of re-infection and/or mutation that's prolonging this outbreak. It's not surprising that there's an uptick in sickness, either...we're moving into cold and flu season. www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 13, 2020 10:53:36 GMT -6
I don't forsee this outbreak going away until herd immunity is reached, and we're not there yet. I honestly believe that these "restrictions" that we've put in place are just delaying that process. Cases and hospitalizations are apparently on the increase, but mortality data from the CDC doesn't really reflect that trend. I think most of the "high risk" individuals that were most susceptible have already passed and it's a matter of re-infection and/or mutation that's prolonging this outbreak. It's not surprising that there's an uptick in sickness, either...we're moving into cold and flu season. www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htmThe therapeutics have certainly come a long, long way since the beginning. I've wondered about the herd immunity - that should factor in, in conjunction with the vaccine. Also, the CDC reported a few months ago that they suspect the number of reported cases in the US could be underscored by a factor of 10 or even 20. Heck, I personally know of a large number of folks who were asymptomatic or nearly so and would never have known had they not been tested due to close contact or other reasons. Again, I'm no expert here, but I'm just trying to be optimistic and hope that factor is correct. If that's the case, we could be at one third to one half of the population already having been exposed. Perhaps this surge will hit hard for a few weeks then we will begin to see the real end of this thing. I can wish anyway. Having said that, I don't really expect a cut and dry "end." It will likely linger in small numbers for years, but the threat of having to lock down, not be able to have events, sports, threats to the global economy etc. will have passed. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 13, 2020 10:55:43 GMT -6
The numbers I care about most are hospitalization and ICU. Those are what alarm me the most... and there is mo denying those numbers are at a crisis point right now. If I am in a car wreck, or my apendix bursts... Im not sure where they will put me. That is my fear for the next 3 months.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 13, 2020 11:15:11 GMT -6
I don't forsee this outbreak going away until herd immunity is reached, and we're not there yet. I honestly believe that these "restrictions" that we've put in place are just delaying that process. Cases and hospitalizations are apparently on the increase, but mortality data from the CDC doesn't really reflect that trend. I think most of the "high risk" individuals that were most susceptible have already passed and it's a matter of re-infection and/or mutation that's prolonging this outbreak. It's not surprising that there's an uptick in sickness, either...we're moving into cold and flu season. www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htmMortality is down for a combination of reasons: different populations becoming infected (younger and fewer comorbidities), better treatment protocols, earlier treatment intervention, etc. Even with that, we have a rolling average of 1,000 deaths a day that is now climbing. Hospitalizations are increasingly rapidly and have eclipsed the spring surge. This time, we have nearly nationwide surges as opposed to isolated regions. If we did nothing in pursuit of herd immunity our health system would collapse because there are only so many beds, equipment, and staff. Everyone can’t get sick at the same time. With exponential growth a pond that is half full today, will be full tomorrow. It’s also very important to note that when you have to be hospitalized for Covid there are lifelong consequences for your long term health. It’s not just about dying today, it’s about quality adjusted life years and productive life years. |
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Nov 13, 2020 11:24:30 GMT -6
I will say this. I rarely see employees and most customers wearing mask or practicing social distancing around here. Heck when I went to vote not a single poll worker had a mask on. I agree that this isn’t going anywhere anytime soon. I work for the State and we have an alarmingly amount of employees getting the virus everyday now.
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 13, 2020 11:52:57 GMT -6
herd immunity is a very dangerous thing to strive for. It basically means giving up and doing nothing, which is essentially what's happening. Millions would probably die, and could take several years. 70% of the population is the number most drs agree would have to get it to arrive there. Now a vaccine would help get to that number, much more quickly and safely.
Chris is right about the hospitalizations and ICU's. That's the big area to watch, and those numbers are way way up already across the entire country and show no sign of leveling off anytime soon. It could get extremely ugly in coming weeks.
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Post by bdgwx on Nov 13, 2020 12:10:31 GMT -6
I wonder if the SPC has the slight risk too far south for tomorrow?
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Post by ajd446 on Nov 13, 2020 12:23:21 GMT -6
I agree bdwg imstability is not much but dynamics with the jet streak are increasingly interesting. I could see metro area in the cross hairs tomorrow evening
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 13, 2020 12:28:41 GMT -6
I wonder if the SPC has the slight risk too far south for tomorrow? latest hi-res guidance would suggest a pull towards I-70 at least in central mo. |
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