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Post by bdgwx on Nov 13, 2020 12:49:56 GMT -6
There is quite the anomaly in combined US deaths for 2020. As of October excess deaths are running 35% higher than official covid-19 death reports. This means we are probably underestimating COVID-19's impact in terms of direct and indirect mortality by as much as 35%. www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htmKeep in mind that it is happening with mandatory and voluntary viral transmission mitigation steps in place the likes of which the US has not seen in at least a few decades and may surpass the efforts of H1N3 of 1968, H1N2 of 1957, and/or even H1N1 of 1918. There is an elevated chance that excess deaths from COVID-19 could surpass those of H1N1 of 1918. However, 2021 has a substantial ace-in-the-hole...technology. It's looking pretty good that vaccines (including these super high-tech never before approved mRNA types) could provide substantial mitigation starting next year. In the meantime...it's likely going to get worse before it gets better. I'm hoping it does not come to this, but I wouldn't rule out the possibility of difficult triaging decisions for patients here in the St. Louis area. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 13, 2020 13:05:08 GMT -6
12z euro is interesting at the D9-10 range.
A bit too far north for the metro, but something worth watching
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 13, 2020 13:07:26 GMT -6
I'd just like to say that I appreciate everyone having the covid discussion on this forum in a constructive, civilized manner without politics coming up. That's tough to come by these days. Clearly this thing is wildfire right now and we need to help each other out.
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 13, 2020 13:35:42 GMT -6
I think some states maybe shouldn't have 'shut down' back in the Spring. The worst of that outbreak was in the northeast, and northwest. The Summer worst was in the south. Now it's literally the entire country. People have 'pandemic fatigue', and are tired of it. Places that shut down in Spring that weren't hit hard, people are pissed in some cases. The point is closing down was to "slow the spread", we did that pretty successfully it would appear. But now is when we desperately need to do it again, and people won't go for it. It'll happen in a few places, but I see compliance as being minimal. People will do the normal Thanksgiving and Christmas, which they should not. This is going to get ugly.
Weather inclusion: snow.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 13, 2020 14:14:33 GMT -6
I think some states maybe shouldn't have 'shut down' back in the Spring. The worst of that outbreak was in the northeast, and northwest. The Summer worst was in the south. Now it's literally the entire country. People have 'pandemic fatigue', and are tired of it. Places that shut down in Spring that weren't hit hard, people are pissed in some cases. The point is closing down was to "slow the spread", we did that pretty successfully it would appear. But now is when we desperately need to do it again, and people won't go for it. It'll happen in a few places, but I see compliance as being minimal. People will do the normal Thanksgiving and Christmas, which they should not. This is going to get ugly. Weather inclusion: snow. St. Louis pandemic task force projects the region will run out of ICU capacity the first week of December if the current trajectory is maintained. Ouch |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 13, 2020 15:21:43 GMT -6
18Z Runs hot off the presses looks fun tomorrow late afternoon/evening. A nice squall line with isolated discrete cells embedded in the line and just in front of it looks likely.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 13, 2020 17:12:04 GMT -6
I have a hard time envisioning any severe threat beyond elevated hailers tomorrow...but models do show some SBCAPE developing behind the morning wave of WAA rainfall. Going to be one of those "wait and see" scenarios...22*F dewpoint currently...will take a heckuva airmass modification.
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Post by cozpregon on Nov 13, 2020 17:38:48 GMT -6
I have a hard time envisioning any severe threat beyond elevated hailers tomorrow...but models do show some SBCAPE developing behind the morning wave of WAA rainfall. Going to be one of those "wait and see" scenarios...22*F dewpoint currently...will take a heckuva airmass modification. Agree- but winds just off the surface 50kt+ may be able to be brought down with some of the heavier storms even with the inversion |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 13, 2020 17:45:57 GMT -6
I have a hard time envisioning any severe threat beyond elevated hailers tomorrow...but models do show some SBCAPE developing behind the morning wave of WAA rainfall. Going to be one of those "wait and see" scenarios...22*F dewpoint currently...will take a heckuva airmass modification. Agree- but winds just off the surface 50kt+ may be able to be brought down with some of the heavier storms even with the inversion True...that LLJ gets cranking for sure. Should be interesting to see how it plays out. |
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Post by cozpregon on Nov 13, 2020 17:49:06 GMT -6
NAM 3 has 60kts at the top of the inversion
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 13, 2020 19:55:55 GMT -6
Think we might need a wind advisory for tomorrow afternoon and evening
Hi res NAM has several hours of gust near or over 40 knots (46mph)
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 13, 2020 21:31:50 GMT -6
Trough negatively tilting as it passes and amplifying, I think tomorrow will be interesting to potentially busy for sure. Yes CAPEs are very low and Lapse Rates so, so. But with a strong amplifying shortwave and surface low that even tries to form a deformation zone on the back side especially along and north of I-70 as it rockets northeastward is looking ominous and the shear is pretty stout. Could see some low-top discrete cells combining into one or more line segments with hail a threat early on, but wind and tornadoes becoming more likely as the afternoon progresses and the system pivots through. Long story short, hopefully people haven't been investing in leaf clean up too much yet because this system will probably do a number on any remaining leaves on the trees and blowing leaves and debris around. I could even see 'High Wind Warning' Criteria north of 70 but a solid advisory for sure and that's outside of any storms.
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Post by ndolan387 on Nov 13, 2020 23:18:19 GMT -6
Yeah the end of next weekend and the week of Thanksgiving looks interesting. Possibly our first dendrites of the season.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 13, 2020 23:36:59 GMT -6
This would be a problem if the RAP is right  |
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Post by jeffcobeeman on Nov 14, 2020 4:53:58 GMT -6
Two weather events i hate to see opening morning of deer season. Rain or wind... and wouldn't you know it, both are happening this year at the same time. ☹ Here's to 2020!
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Nov 14, 2020 6:42:07 GMT -6
Two weather events i hate to see opening morning of deer season. Rain or wind... and wouldn't you know it, both are happening this year at the same time. ☹ Here's to 2020! Sorry buddy. It's a shame that this year has been a dude in so many ways. Not all, but alot. But let's hope Winter can actually put something historic together for us. I really hope it's a big massive snowfall that nobody has seen in this area, Ever!! Is that to much to ask from 2020? Since most might be home anyways due to this darn pandemic. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Nov 14, 2020 8:22:47 GMT -6
Being in a deer stand while it's lightning is probably not the best idea, either.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 14, 2020 8:52:33 GMT -6
Yea, I bailed once the thunder started from this line. Not sure I’ll even bother tonight and in morning with 40+ mph wind.
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Nov 14, 2020 9:49:30 GMT -6
The sun is trying to come out here in eureka all the sudden. Doubt it will last.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 14, 2020 10:24:28 GMT -6
Slight risk pulled north to along and west of the river
PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO FORM -
MAINLY AFTER DARK - FROM SOUTHEAST IA INTO CENTRAL MO AND NORTHWEST
AR. MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY LIMITED IN THE NORTHERN PARTS
OF THE RISK AREA, LIMITING A MORE ROBUST SEVERE EVENT. HOWEVER FROM
CENTRAL MO SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHWEST AR, FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 60F AND MODERATELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. THIS SHOULD YIELD SUFFICIENT CAPE FOR A FEW VIGOROUS
UPDRAFTS WITH SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS. VERY STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR WOULD SUGGEST A RISK OF ALL HAZARDS IN THESE
FAST-MOVING STORMS, INCLUDING A FEW TORNADOES. STORMS WILL LIKELY
ORGANIZE INTO BOWING SEGMENTS TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO A PROGRESSIVELY
MORE STABLE AIR MASS. NEVERTHELESS, THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS COULD BE MAINTAINED AS FAR EAST AS SOUTHERN IL
AND WESTERN KY/TN.
..HART/DEAN.. 11/14/2020
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Nov 14, 2020 10:35:14 GMT -6
The sun is trying to come out here in eureka all the sudden. Doubt it will last. Was fun while it lasted |
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Post by REB on Nov 14, 2020 12:10:11 GMT -6
1.36” so far
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twocat
Junior Forecaster
North St. Peters off Cave Springs
Posts: 395 
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Post by twocat on Nov 14, 2020 12:10:39 GMT -6
This would be a problem if the RAP is right Would you please explain why? |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 14, 2020 12:37:57 GMT -6
That sounding is showing a storm that would be able to become become surface based and take advantage of very high levels of 0-1km SRH which would pose a real tornado threat.
Looking at this mornings data, surface based storms are looking unlikely so that RAP sounding isnt looking like it will verify
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Nov 14, 2020 12:41:24 GMT -6
I'm out of town but will as the wife what the weather station shows when she get home. EDIT: Kid is home says 1.05" today and .04" before midnight. |
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Post by cozpregon on Nov 14, 2020 12:57:52 GMT -6
That sounding is showing a storm that would be able to become become surface based and take advantage of very high levels of 0-1km SRH which would pose a real tornado threat. Looking at this mornings data, surface based storms are looking unlikely so that RAP sounding isnt looking like it will verify Seems like the 60 Td is the magic number this evening |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 14, 2020 12:58:31 GMT -6
Good afternoon.
Tough forecasting for sure with respect to severe potential... but I have my doubts about us generating any meaningful instability this far north. I suspect the true warm front will never get this far north before it is overtaken by the advancing broken line of storms approaching from the west this evening...once they develop. Instead, I see a forced occlusion zipping through here with an elevated band of storms...some hail potential there...and the primary threat for more impactful severe being focused more into the SGF area. This is actually backed up when you look at historical cold season severe weather during La Nina years. In fact, this pattern for today into tonight may get pretty familiar before the season is over. That may make for messy precip type forecasting once we get a little colder. As it is... there were a few mping reports of sleet early this morning.
I'm not discounting the need to watch things carefully... but I honestly feel our bigger impact may be the gradient winds/non thunderstorm winds.
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 14, 2020 17:19:36 GMT -6
that's a frickin honkin' tor watch.
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Post by ajd446 on Nov 14, 2020 17:21:08 GMT -6
I am assuming there wont be any severe weather by the time it gets to st.Louis
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Nov 14, 2020 17:32:22 GMT -6
Always get those weird vibes when it starts getting warmer and windy when the sun goes down.
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