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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 14, 2020 18:20:04 GMT -6
Storms starting to rotate out near KSGF...  |
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Post by Jeffmw on Nov 14, 2020 18:21:12 GMT -6
With the watch so close to St. Louis and St. Charles why didn't they just include St. Louis and St. Charles anyway?
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Post by House Springs ~ DeerKiller ~ on Nov 14, 2020 18:46:51 GMT -6
I am out deer hunting in Macon Missouri and there is a whole crap ton of lightning off in the distance looks like it's going to get nasty
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 14, 2020 18:49:12 GMT -6
Looks like a straight line wind threat later as the line consolidates and races east
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 14, 2020 18:50:05 GMT -6
0-1km SRH is also insanely high so an isolated tornado threat can’t be ruled out this far east
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padlur
Junior Forecaster
Ballwin(by the golf course)
Posts: 304 
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Post by padlur on Nov 14, 2020 19:07:23 GMT -6
Look at this notch riding up along 44 in the warned area  |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 14, 2020 19:17:40 GMT -6
Look at this notch riding up along 44 in the warned area That probably was a tornado on the ground for a brief period. Rotation has weakened thankfully. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 14, 2020 19:21:44 GMT -6
0-1km SRH is also insanely high so an isolated tornado threat can’t be ruled out this far east I noticed that earlier looking at mesoanalysis...off the charts high! Very strong wind shear with this system. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Nov 14, 2020 19:37:50 GMT -6
With the watch so close to St. Louis and St. Charles why didn't they just include St. Louis and St. Charles anyway? they should not issue a watch just to include St. Louis if conditions don't warrant a watch. |
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Post by ajd446 on Nov 14, 2020 19:38:53 GMT -6
Thing is conditions are very favorable for in metro
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Nov 14, 2020 19:46:53 GMT -6
Well they have to end it somewhere. If need be they can expand it.
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Post by ndolan387 on Nov 14, 2020 20:20:05 GMT -6
Tornado warned cell in Phelps County. What's everyone thoughts?
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 14, 2020 20:20:37 GMT -6
75 mph forward motion? These things are booking...
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 14, 2020 20:24:45 GMT -6
HRRR has done an excellent job forecasting storm modes and positions almost spot on par with the radar. Looks like 10PM-12AM will be key time for the metro. Storms should be weakening but strong winds and an outside chance of a weak tornado remain especially considering the fact that the model has hinted a storm or 2 having little 'hooks' on them around the metro especially between 10-11PM.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 14, 2020 20:26:02 GMT -6
More showers and storms forming from the first wave back into the metro east again.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 14, 2020 20:29:57 GMT -6
Wouldn't be surprised if a EF-0 to EF-1 tornado at least briefly touchdown southwest of Rolla and then lifted as it passed the city to the south.
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Post by shrapnel - Arnold, MO on Nov 14, 2020 20:31:52 GMT -6
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 14, 2020 20:33:49 GMT -6
Watch Branson, another even stronger TVS signature has formed near Eureka Springs, AR and is now moving towards or just south of Branson. That could be yielding an EF-1 easily possibly EF-2.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 14, 2020 20:35:45 GMT -6
Looks like solid strong-end EF-1 damage, but it was quite narrow. Assuming it is indeed found to be a tornado. Strip malls aren't the most tornado proof structures ever built, but above say mobile homes and RVs, which is why I don't think it was a EF-2 but you never know. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 14, 2020 20:41:41 GMT -6
While the TVS was over Eureka Springs, AR it was very strong. Hard to tell if there was a debris ball, but storms are moving so fast they might not have time to gather enough debris in one place to show one. Be interesting to see what if any damage has/had occur there.
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Post by shrapnel - Arnold, MO on Nov 14, 2020 20:42:09 GMT -6
Looks like solid strong-end EF-1 damage, but it was quite narrow. Assuming it is indeed found to be a tornado. Strip malls aren't the most tornado proof structures ever built, but above say mobile homes and RVs, which is why I don't think it was a EF-2 but you never know. Straight line winds are the suspect here so far. |
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Post by ajd446 on Nov 14, 2020 20:42:45 GMT -6
I think threat is not going to get to metro line is weekening drasticly in central mo
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 14, 2020 20:52:16 GMT -6
I think threat is not going to get to metro line is weekening drasticly in central mo Don't look it to me. The band behind the primary, yes but the one in front looks solid. Now is the tornado threat going to be less? Likely yes, but damaging winds still very much on the table especially along I-44 and up to I-64/I-70 into Illinois. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 14, 2020 20:57:11 GMT -6
Jefferson, MO, Monroe, IL, into Saint Clair, IL counties are the ones to watch as the Rolla storm while more linear now; still has a notch in it on the northern part. Could see a spin-up from that along with 50-60 mph winds immediately to the south of that notch.
On second though with a couple new radar frames, possible more closer to 70 mph for the damaging wind portion. The notch is less notable but still there enough to watch.
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Nov 14, 2020 21:03:20 GMT -6
Jefferson, MO, Monroe, IL, into Saint Clair, IL counties are the ones to watch as the Rolla storm while more linear now; still has a notch in it on the northern part. Could see a spin-up from that along with 50-60 mph winds immediately to the south of that notch.
On second though with a couple new radar frames, possible more closer to 70 mph for the damaging wind portion. The notch is less notable but still there enough to watch.
That notch is heading right for me here on the Jefferson Washington county line |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 14, 2020 21:04:51 GMT -6
Storm near Branson, MO fortunately weakened as it passed south of Branson and the TVS had since dissolved.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 14, 2020 21:07:03 GMT -6
Jefferson, MO, Monroe, IL, into Saint Clair, IL counties are the ones to watch as the Rolla storm while more linear now; still has a notch in it on the northern part. Could see a spin-up from that along with 50-60 mph winds immediately to the south of that notch.
On second though with a couple new radar frames, possible more closer to 70 mph for the damaging wind portion. The notch is less notable but still there enough to watch.
That notch is heading right for me here on the Jefferson Washington county line Rotation with it is weak at this time, so you should be O.K. will get a helluva straight line gust front though. |
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Post by mosue56 on Nov 14, 2020 21:11:05 GMT -6
How long before it hits JeffCo?
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 14, 2020 21:12:19 GMT -6
Line is looking quite beefy as it approaches the metro. No obvious TVS at the moment as of the 9:03 PM Frame, but definitely some good winds and heavy rain for sure.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 14, 2020 21:13:04 GMT -6
How long before it hits JeffCo? Depends on what part. But can range from now to 15-20 mins from now. |
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