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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 14, 2020 21:19:06 GMT -6
The line is now marching through the western burbs into Downtown in the next 15 mins.
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Post by RyanD on Nov 14, 2020 21:21:47 GMT -6
Sure looks like a quick spin-up along the leading edge east of Steelville. Very visible o in the velocity mode though no visible notch in the radar imagery.
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Post by RyanD on Nov 14, 2020 21:23:26 GMT -6
It didn't last long but that line will likely continue to generate quick spin ups as it moves into the southern metro.
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Post by mosue56 on Nov 14, 2020 21:31:29 GMT -6
Hearing the start of thunder in Festus!
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Nov 14, 2020 21:36:51 GMT -6
Non event here really. Little rain not even heavy. Some light winds. A little occasional lightning.
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Post by dschreib on Nov 14, 2020 21:38:11 GMT -6
19:38:53 Thing is conditions are very favorable for in metro
20:42:45 I think threat is not going to get to metro line is weekening drasticly in central mo
I would think "very favorable" conditions would hang around longer than an hour...
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Post by ajd446 on Nov 14, 2020 21:39:43 GMT -6
Hey I just now cast how i see it. Thats the fun
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 14, 2020 21:42:42 GMT -6
I can hear the winds rushing against the bluff line from my House.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 14, 2020 21:44:24 GMT -6
Hey I just now cast how i see it. Thats the fun Yes, but severe weather where property and potentially lives is on the line is not the time or place. For extreme flip flopping predictions, even I Mr. Flip Flop usually keeps a lid on it during active severe events unless there is a clear trend. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 14, 2020 21:45:36 GMT -6
I can hear the winds screaming above but we're in a 'sheltered' area so it will take a bit more time to reach the surface. Probably gonna do a number on the stubborn oak tree leaves though.
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Post by ajd446 on Nov 14, 2020 21:46:03 GMT -6
I am the biggest flip flop ever butni agree i apologies at the housebin st.peters we had heavy rain and 45 to 50 mph gusts
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 14, 2020 21:46:42 GMT -6
Non event here really. Little rain not even heavy. Some light winds. A little occasional lightning. Fact the line isn't warned this far north probably is an allusion to that. Still some good gusts and brief heavy rain and lightning for sure. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 14, 2020 21:49:58 GMT -6
Some brief hints at rotation between Fetus and Arnold, MO.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 14, 2020 21:54:16 GMT -6
60s have managed to make to and just east of Belleville according to Weather Underground.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 14, 2020 21:54:58 GMT -6
Heavy rain and wind has started at my house. Very large wind driven drops.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 14, 2020 21:56:28 GMT -6
Thing is conditions are very favorable for in metro No... sorry... they are not. ZERO instability here. Yes, shear is strong... but shear alone will not make a tornado and it certainly does not make it very favorable. It doesn't mean one couldn't happen... but it is far from "very favorable" for tornadoes around STL. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 14, 2020 21:59:31 GMT -6
I had maybe 35 to 40 mph winds at most when the storms came through Chesterfield.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 14, 2020 22:01:23 GMT -6
Ya not much here in Arnold. Maybe a 30 mph gust or so with decent lighting and thunder
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 14, 2020 22:04:15 GMT -6
Love how the 2 bands have merged into one thicker shield band which will yield 2-3 hours of steady to moderate rain. Good sleeping weather once the primary line passes.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 14, 2020 22:35:20 GMT -6
Yeah, the band was a let down only got a few minutes of heavy rain and winds 20 to 30 mph tops. That inversion layer or whatever really kept a lid on things.
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Post by John G -west belleville on Nov 15, 2020 7:28:21 GMT -6
Just stopping by to point out we had measurable snow by now the past two years
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padlur
Junior Forecaster
Ballwin(by the golf course)
Posts: 304 
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Post by padlur on Nov 15, 2020 7:53:58 GMT -6
That wind between 5 and 7 this morning was at another level. Cleared my patio of furniture and took a few shingles with it. Seemed pretty constant there much of the time too. Much more impressive than anything last night.
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twocat
Junior Forecaster
North St. Peters off Cave Springs
Posts: 395 
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Post by twocat on Nov 15, 2020 9:51:30 GMT -6
The Davis on the roof in North St. Pete is reporting 1.2" of rain (storm total).
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 15, 2020 10:05:25 GMT -6
Storm total of 1.75” in Arnold
It must of been windy last night because all our outdoor furniture was thrown around
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Post by birddog on Nov 15, 2020 10:05:48 GMT -6
.77" IMBY
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Post by mchafin on Nov 15, 2020 10:53:09 GMT -6
That wind between 5 and 7 this morning was at another level. Cleared my patio of furniture and took a few shingles with it. Seemed pretty constant there much of the time too. Much more impressive than anything last night. Lost power between 5:45a and 7:30a I assume because of the wind. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 15, 2020 11:34:05 GMT -6
This sounds frightening
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 15, 2020 12:15:21 GMT -6
1.5"
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Nov 15, 2020 12:49:37 GMT -6
Just stopping by to point out we had measurable snow by now the past two years I think our first measurable snow will come in December, and I'm guessing by measurable, I'm talking about a something along the lines of an inch for the first measurable. Of course there's no way to really know. I know the CFS had a sleet fest for us in mid December a few days ago, but I just look at that for entertainment purposes. It has also had a pretty good storm tracking well to our south from Dallas to Alabama in early December. It varies widely from day to day though, and barely noteworthy that digital snow shows up so far south given that it is the CFS. With a strong polar vortex, I'm waiting for reality to set in on these long range models. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Nov 15, 2020 13:27:28 GMT -6
To me, the year that has come up several times in my own stats gathering is 2007-2008. It is similar in proximity to enso, as well as solar cycle, and antecedent rainfall. Eyeballing this year, it looks like we've had about 35 inches of rain so far, which is somewhat higher than the year 2007, though, so I'm inclined to temper the snow a bit. My numbers guessed in the past years are: 6, 9, 24, 20. Admittedly we came up well short last year. But the trend matches, and it looked like we could get a late season snow to get us a little closer, but that never materialized. I think this winter will be snowier than last winter, so the question is how high do I go. A couple ideas - this winter should be a mostly back loaded winter, with our bigger storms occurring in January and February. This winter should feature more ice, and more severe potential than normal. But the PV is strong, and it seems the Bermuda high is steering storms well to the north for the time being. So, I think the upper midwest are the big winners while we rely on secondary development. Minneapolis is already well on its way. I've previously was thinking we could see alot of clipper action this winter, but now, not so sure. My number...just a guess...22 inches of snow and sleet for this winter season.
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