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Post by amstilost on Oct 5, 2020 6:58:26 GMT -6
Down to 33* 7 miles west of De Soto.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Oct 5, 2020 7:23:57 GMT -6
31 in Perryville this morning, dropped to 29 in the creek valleys near Bloomsdale. Nice heavy frost, and exactly one week earlier than last year.
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Post by ndolan387 on Oct 5, 2020 8:03:13 GMT -6
3ish hours at or below freezing. The low was 31 here in Northern Wildwood! KSUS got down to 30.
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Post by REB on Oct 5, 2020 8:13:56 GMT -6
My low was 29.8*
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Oct 5, 2020 9:33:11 GMT -6
Don’t think I got below 33 this morning.
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Post by toddatfarmington on Oct 5, 2020 9:43:07 GMT -6
KFAM currently reporting 29* KFAM low of 28* at 06:56 report
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Oct 5, 2020 10:08:11 GMT -6
12z gfs is stronger with Delta, hitting the middle of Louisiana with a borderline Category 3.
The forward speed of Delta should mitigate impacts to some extent.
Obviously, a track a little to the East would put New Orleans in the cross hairs.
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Post by jmg378s on Oct 5, 2020 11:07:38 GMT -6
Regarding Delta. SHIPS rapid intensification probabilities are very high for the next 48-72 hours. Shear is quite low with very deep warm water. It is in a spot in the basin where storms can really take off and it currently has that look.
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Post by Jeffmw on Oct 5, 2020 11:52:18 GMT -6
So is this our last real “warm snap” before the cooler weather sets in?
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Oct 5, 2020 13:02:15 GMT -6
12z euro has some pretty cold air building into the Upper Midwest around mid month.
Seems like seasonal swings for now which is fine.
Want a good pattern to set in from late November on to maximize snow anyway.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Oct 5, 2020 13:30:19 GMT -6
Nice plume of smoke on it's way according to visible Satellite. Might be here in time to give us that '2020 sunset' we've been so familiar with. Might still be around tomorrow AM as well.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Oct 5, 2020 18:15:12 GMT -6
Regarding Delta. SHIPS rapid intensification probabilities are very high for the next 48-72 hours. Shear is quite low with very deep warm water. It is in a spot in the basin where storms can really take off and it currently has that look. 18z HWRF and HMON turn Delta into a violent Category 4 hurricane before weakening just before landfall. That’s new
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Post by bdgwx on Oct 5, 2020 19:14:04 GMT -6
Regarding Delta. SHIPS rapid intensification probabilities are very high for the next 48-72 hours. Shear is quite low with very deep warm water. It is in a spot in the basin where storms can really take off and it currently has that look. 18z HWRF and HMON turn Delta into a violent Category 4 hurricane before weakening just before landfall. That’s new It's the same with the 18Z COAMPS. All 3 of the cyclone models now show cat 4 intensity.
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BDS
Wishcaster
Columbia, MO
Posts: 202
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Post by BDS on Oct 5, 2020 20:46:28 GMT -6
18z HWRF and HMON turn Delta into a violent Category 4 hurricane before weakening just before landfall. That’s new It's the same with the 18Z COAMPS. All 3 of the cyclone models now show cat 4 intensity. Delta is in the exact same area where Wilma went bonkers back in 2005.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Oct 5, 2020 20:56:29 GMT -6
00z nam now onboard with a Major Hurricane.
This one might go boom
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Oct 5, 2020 21:52:14 GMT -6
We might even get a taste of Delta's Remnants with the ensemble and operational tracks shifting ever westward with time. Areas along and east of I-55 have the best shot so far including as far northwest as metro St. Louis. It's going to be a very tight gradient as usual between those that get a ton and those that get barely a drop. All this occurring this weekend.
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Post by Snowman99 on Oct 6, 2020 5:08:12 GMT -6
Delta has rapidly intensified and appears to still be doing so. Very impressive.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Oct 6, 2020 6:35:53 GMT -6
Dang, Delta is continuing to explode. Hopefully this is the kind of system that maxes itself out over open water and then is in a weakening phase on approach to land. If it clips the Yucatan as it appears it may, that will disrupt it some. Though that could actually be an issue because it could be in a restrengthening phase again over the central Gulf.
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Post by packrat on Oct 6, 2020 6:45:29 GMT -6
Well, it looks like I’m going to get to experience a once in a lifetime weather event firsthand. I’m in Mexico about 8 miles south of the current projected landfall for Delta. Going to be an interesting next 24-36 hours.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Oct 6, 2020 7:20:40 GMT -6
Hurricane Delta reminds me of someone i knew years ago. I understand major greek hurricanes are memorialized with the year so this could be hurricane delta 2020. I knew a lady years ago named Delta Twente.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Oct 6, 2020 7:28:11 GMT -6
Well, it looks like I’m going to get to experience a once in a lifetime weather event firsthand. I’m in Mexico about 8 miles south of the current projected landfall for Delta. Going to be an interehsting next 24-36 hours. Wow. Keep us posted.
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Post by ndolan387 on Oct 6, 2020 7:32:20 GMT -6
Looks like we were going to be close to a record high tomorrow.
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Post by jmg378s on Oct 6, 2020 7:51:16 GMT -6
Well, it looks like I’m going to get to experience a once in a lifetime weather event firsthand. I’m in Mexico about 8 miles south of the current projected landfall for Delta. Going to be an interesting next 24-36 hours. Are you somewhere in the Cancun to Playa del Carmen area?
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Post by jmg378s on Oct 6, 2020 8:18:00 GMT -6
Latest recon pass indicating closed eye...only 6nm wide! If Delta is going to bomb out it will happen very quickly.
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Post by packrat on Oct 6, 2020 8:28:48 GMT -6
Well, it looks like I’m going to get to experience a once in a lifetime weather event firsthand. I’m in Mexico about 8 miles south of the current projected landfall for Delta. Going to be an interesting next 24-36 hours. Are you somewhere in the Cancun to Playa del Carmen area? I’m between Puerto Morelos and Playa del Carmen.
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Post by jmg378s on Oct 6, 2020 8:52:42 GMT -6
Are you somewhere in the Cancun to Playa del Carmen area? I’m between Puerto Morelos and Playa del Carmen. I'm sure you're all over it, but stay safe. Good chance it'll be Cat 4+ at landfall wherever that ends up being. Edit: I see NHC forecast is inching a bit further south now too and stronger by the way.
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Post by jmg378s on Oct 6, 2020 8:59:39 GMT -6
Eye is contracting a bit...now down to 5nm. Lot of lightning too.
Wilma's eye actually got down to less than 3nm.
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Post by jmg378s on Oct 6, 2020 9:24:31 GMT -6
Well that didn't take long. Delta is now officially a Cat 4 storm just 20 minutes after the previous NHC advisory.
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Post by jmg378s on Oct 6, 2020 9:41:14 GMT -6
Wow, eye down to 4nm now.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Oct 6, 2020 9:57:24 GMT -6
Delta sure is tiny but the RI it’s gone under is something else
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