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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 25, 2020 10:32:55 GMT -6
Well that was a fun idea to entertain for a couple days I suppose. 12z ggem is pretty close to giving us what we want. Ukmet and euro carry a lot more weight than the gfs anyway |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 25, 2020 10:53:10 GMT -6
12z ukmet looks to have bailed, so now it gets pretty hard to think much of the storm for our region.
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 25, 2020 12:26:03 GMT -6
Yeeep. OHV per the EURO.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 25, 2020 12:37:54 GMT -6
Road trip to Indy. Beautiful storm. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 25, 2020 12:39:29 GMT -6
Euro has 2 feet of snow in IN/OH so that's cute.
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Post by ajd446 on Nov 25, 2020 12:42:09 GMT -6
Is there conceptionally any chance it moves back west in later runs
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 25, 2020 12:44:59 GMT -6
Is there conceptionally any chance it moves back west in later runs Yes, there are still individual ensemble members that show a further west outcome. It’s lower probability though. It’s all about the phase. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 25, 2020 12:47:42 GMT -6
Conceptually, yes, but quite unlikely.
One thing is for sure, the lake effect snow machine is about to go nuts. Wish I could go experience it.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 25, 2020 12:49:47 GMT -6
Is there conceptionally any chance it moves back west in later runs Pretty unlikely...the primary shortwave/mid-level low just has too much latitude to gain to "round the bend" so-to-speak...by the time the phase occurs, the system is considerably too far S and E for us. The phase needs to occur over the eastern plains...not the OHV. IF the S stream wave slows a bit and ejects a bit further north, it could set up better for us. But it's a stretch at this point. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 25, 2020 12:52:05 GMT -6
Looks like 2 solid weeks of dry time for our area pretty much from now or when the last of the showers associated with the low leave until mid December. Boring...
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Post by landscaper on Nov 25, 2020 13:06:23 GMT -6
Yep , we are likely waiting at least two weeks for any winter weather.
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Post by mchafin on Nov 25, 2020 13:17:42 GMT -6
Any chance we get any mood snow out of this thing this weekend? Flakes flying will up the spirits around here.
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Post by ndolan387 on Nov 25, 2020 13:33:14 GMT -6
Any chance we get any mood snow out of this thing this weekend? Flakes flying will up the spirits around here. Like Chris already mentioned early this morning, I do think some flurries/light snow is possible for Monday. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 25, 2020 13:43:13 GMT -6
I mean who actually thought this was anything for here.
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Post by ajd446 on Nov 25, 2020 16:03:04 GMT -6
1.55 inches of raim total. We have had too much rain recently, it is a soggy mess.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 25, 2020 16:09:43 GMT -6
I mean who actually thought this was anything for here. 18z gfs wants you to believe |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 25, 2020 16:13:41 GMT -6
Yeah, it s a tease... Almost as good as the 6Z Run.
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modracer
Weather Intern
MASCOUTAH, Illinois
Posts: 835
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Post by modracer on Nov 25, 2020 16:14:31 GMT -6
We must have got a lot of rain over the weekend while I was away at deer camp, and again this morning.
I really need to get my Davis sent in and rebuilt. Or, just buy a new one and donate mine to a poor weatherman, or less than fortunate weather enthusiast after getting it rebuilt...lol
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Post by landscaper on Nov 25, 2020 16:15:50 GMT -6
It looks similar to the Euro, a 200 mile shift north west and quicker phase would be nice , that’s probably to much to ask. I would do for even a little mood snow
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Nov 25, 2020 16:18:04 GMT -6
We must have got a lot of rain over the weekend while I was away at deer camp, and again this morning. I really need to get my Davis sent in and rebuilt. Or, just buy a new one and donate mine to a poor weatherman, or less than fortunate weather enthusiast after getting it rebuilt...lol 1.2" since midnight and .3" prior. Up this way anyway. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 25, 2020 16:31:06 GMT -6
I suppose it’s feasible that the upper level low maintains itself and develops some snow like the gfs is showing, particularly if the surface low doesn’t materialize.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 25, 2020 16:39:28 GMT -6
Something around the 3rd or 4th possible as well, but looks just a tad to south and relatively moisture starved and disorganized.
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 25, 2020 17:29:09 GMT -6
Lol
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 25, 2020 17:38:32 GMT -6
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Nov 25, 2020 21:09:09 GMT -6
Looks like 2 solid weeks of dry time for our area pretty much from now or when the last of the showers associated with the low leave until mid December. Boring... yeah, the models really flip-flopped today. I trust today's models. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Nov 25, 2020 21:11:47 GMT -6
1.55 inches of raim total. We have had too much rain recently, it is a soggy mess. and this time of year, it takes a long time for things to dry up. I had hoped to finish my outdoor project this weekend, but that is not looking too good because the work I needed to do is where there isn't much sun this time of year. |
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Post by cozpregon on Nov 25, 2020 21:31:03 GMT -6
Where this set up... it looks impressive. The coupled jet diving down to pick it up.  |
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 25, 2020 22:08:11 GMT -6
GFS lines up with the EURO.
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Post by landscaper on Nov 25, 2020 22:22:21 GMT -6
Definitely looking like a big storm for Indiana and Ohio. Lots of snow and high winds with crashing temps .
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 25, 2020 22:29:15 GMT -6
GFS shifts east again, but all the models as a whole shifted westward a bit since 12Z. Baby steps, even if it doesn't get us anywhere.
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