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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 22, 2020 11:56:05 GMT -6
Good morning from the home office... As I mentioned in my last few posts in the last thread, I wanted to do some fun/low bandwidth research looking at trends following "wet" Novembers at the start of La Nina winters. This is far from a forecast and intended only as a weather geek's fun run through the numbers to see if anything interesting shows up....that may or may not be useful to follow for seasonal trends. The charts below are the fruits of my quick labor. I didn't give a tremendous amount of thought as to how I picked the La Nina years... just going with Moderate or Strong helped widdle down the field a bit. As for wet... I went with anything that didn't look abnormally dry...not a very scientific approach. But.. the analog years I settled on stood out pretty well on their own anyway...so it worked. Novembers that were "wet": 1973 1975 1988 1998 2010 2011 The top two rows of charts are the break downs by month. The bottom two charts are the December-March departures. Take-aways... There are detectable trends.... Heavy precipitation seems to be displaced a bit more south from the classic "La Nina" composites...but in general...our region is near normal with precip. The heavies precip is along and south of the Ohio River into "Dixie Ally" which may be an indicator of increased severe weather potential down there. Temperature trends in December are slightly above average over much of the nation... but trend steadily warmer each month in the east...and by March...much of the nation averages not just a little above normal... but a lot! Spring will start early if these analogs are to be believed. What does all of this mean NOTHING... it is just a fun exercise looking back at the past to find some nuggets that might give a sneak peak into the future.  |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Nov 22, 2020 12:04:57 GMT -6
Thank you for the fun run through the past! Congrats on the Emmy and yay for new thread smellys!
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 22, 2020 12:59:10 GMT -6
Pretty nice runs from the GEM and EURO wrt the storm next weekend. GFS still looks like... well, the GFS
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 22, 2020 14:26:02 GMT -6
Interesting run of the euro for sure. Looks like a potential severe threat Tuesday night followed by rain to snow Sunday
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Nov 22, 2020 15:37:56 GMT -6
I will take an early spring for 1000, Alex.
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Post by jmg378s on Nov 22, 2020 16:22:53 GMT -6
Interesting run of the euro for sure. Looks like a potential severe threat Tuesday night followed by rain to snow Sunday Synoptically it does like a great setup for strong storms. Timing, moisture return, and temps is working against it though. |
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Post by cozpregon on Nov 22, 2020 16:43:53 GMT -6
Be careful for some frosty bridges tomorrow am
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 22, 2020 18:20:19 GMT -6
Looks like the 18z gfs and gefs are trying to move towards the euro/ggem solution for next weekend’s potential storm.
Interesting setup
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Nov 22, 2020 18:30:34 GMT -6
I averaged out Chris' analog years based on statistics from the stl nws climate records, and came up with 25 inches of snow. Of course, the stinker year was the most recent year. I do believe extra weight should be given to the more recent years, but one year that overlaps with my list of years was 10-11, enso wise. I think overall, Chris' findings support my number of 22 inches of snow. if I remove the exceptional years (the highest and lowest total), I still come out to 21.6 inches. The concern I have is that all of these years are well in the past, and we are in a different time, climatologically speaking. But I really don't have a good understanding of how the weather patterns have varied over the years, so based on what I know, I think 22 is a good number to go with right now, and see no compelling reason to back away from it. I would like to see a few inches of snow in December to help maintain confidence in that number, and I think we will. We may just need to wait until well into the month for it. Thanks Chris for your research. My interests lie more in the long range outlooks, than the short term outlooks, so I haven't looked at any of the operational models that are posted online. I see chatter on here, but let's see.
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Post by REB on Nov 22, 2020 18:49:41 GMT -6
It’s 2020. Nothing is normal or follows a reasonable pattern. Just my two cents.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Nov 22, 2020 18:52:37 GMT -6
I think the thing that will make this winter seem harder than it will actually be...is ice. Besides the above normal snow, I think we will see more icing situations. That's your 2020.
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 22, 2020 22:38:15 GMT -6
GFS has a similar scheme at H5 as the 12z GEM/Euro... However, it never really cuts off the 4 corners low... Instead, it gets stretched and sheared out by the polar jet... leaving a weak sfc wave to ripple along the gulf coast states. Looks like the GFS is hopping on the COLD train though.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 23, 2020 0:45:58 GMT -6
GFS has a similar scheme at H5 as the 12z GEM/Euro... However, it never really cuts off the 4 corners low... Instead, it gets stretched and sheared out by the polar jet... leaving a weak sfc wave to ripple along the gulf coast states. Looks like the GFS is hopping on the COLD train though. That's whatbit tried to do with the Tuesday system before switching on a dime over to the Euro's more closed system. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 23, 2020 9:11:26 GMT -6
Rough model consensus for this weekend's storm is for the low to track over us or to the north...the best we can hope for with that setup is wrap around snow showers. There's just too much ridging out ahead of it for a supportive track for meaningful snowfall. But it definitely looks like a blast of arctic air may be in the cards late in the weekend or early next week.
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 23, 2020 10:00:50 GMT -6
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 23, 2020 10:54:07 GMT -6
12z gfs spits out a totally 2020 cutoff low that just sits and spins over the STL metro for days late next week.
Truly bizarre
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 23, 2020 10:55:25 GMT -6
12z gfs spits out a totally 2020 cutoff low that just sits and spins over the STL metro for days late next week. Truly bizarre and the GEM holds the course. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 23, 2020 10:57:41 GMT -6
12z gfs spits out a totally 2020 cutoff low that just sits and spins over the STL metro for days late next week. Truly bizarre honestly looks like a summer-time cutoff low when the flow is so benign that it's got no where to go. That feels weird to see in the cool season. |
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Post by Jeffmw on Nov 23, 2020 11:06:34 GMT -6
So we could get at least Mood Snow this weekend?
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 23, 2020 11:31:22 GMT -6
GFS looks like it has no clue how to handle the energy this weekend whatsoever. It completely shears it out, only to redevelop it well to the south across the Gulf states.
It's starting to look like models are suffering from the La Nina pattern for sure...the split-flow is giving them fits. The GFS always struggled the most with that pattern.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 23, 2020 11:44:56 GMT -6
So we could get at least Mood Snow this weekend? Im leaning toward cold rain for us... at least until we get some better agreement on how much cold air is coming and when. Canadian is always too cold... and the last run of the euro kept snow north. FWIW... the ukie is very much supporting the GEM/Euro ideas of a wound up stor passing through our area this weekend. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 23, 2020 12:39:22 GMT -6
12z euro bails towards the gfs solution for the weekend.
Wow
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 23, 2020 12:40:16 GMT -6
Euro has caved to the GFS, low develops in the deep south and thus no potential for cold air interaction/phasing.
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 23, 2020 13:24:43 GMT -6
Lol. Not before Dec 15. Probably. At least for most of the area the drought is gone.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Nov 23, 2020 13:44:25 GMT -6
That cutoff late in the first week of december is odd. It showed up for a couple model runs now. As depicted, it could spin some snow showers or at least mood flakeage, but the time range is way out there. I just think its interesting bc it is depicted in 2 consecutive model runs.
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 23, 2020 13:45:39 GMT -6
seems like all globals want to hang on to some sort of rex blocking scenario following... whatever happens this weekend.
Euro is about as classic of a Rex Block as I've seen.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Nov 23, 2020 13:48:27 GMT -6
NWS just reported that they have been getting reports of rain and sleet in Central MO... WTH?
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 23, 2020 13:49:58 GMT -6
GEFS members trending south with their precip field as well.
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Nov 23, 2020 13:50:39 GMT -6
We got surprise concrete snow then sleet up here. Hopefully the temps will stay above freezing for the rest of the rain event. Got about an inch, enough to make driving more interesting.
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 23, 2020 13:51:11 GMT -6
NWS just reported that they have been getting reports of rain and sleet in Central MO... WTH? Can confirm! Onset was about 10 or so minutes of partially melted sleet pellets. Not surprising considering our Td's are right around 32* Definitely some efficient evaporative cooling on the front edge of the precip. |
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