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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 12, 2021 10:09:57 GMT -6
sunshine! imagine a forum that is excited abt the sun that has seemingly become as rare as snow in st louis! i can see it now..."the gfs says we might get 4 hours of sunshine some time in the next 10 days."
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Post by Jeffmw on Feb 12, 2021 10:10:18 GMT -6
With the clear skies could we see some ICE melting even though it’s still in the teens?
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 12, 2021 10:10:25 GMT -6
I would say wave 1, wave 2 then wednesday is a totally different storm so call it storm 2.  |
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 12, 2021 10:11:40 GMT -6
With the clear skies could we see some ICE melting even though it’s still in the teens? sun melts..always..no matter the temp |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 12, 2021 10:14:06 GMT -6
The v16 is going insane with the midweek system again
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 12, 2021 10:14:24 GMT -6
With the clear skies could we see some ICE melting even though it’s still in the teens? yes. insolation is powerful to make snow disappear. ill let you know if i see bare spots on my front lawn later today. looks like i hv an inch in my yard, so full blown sunshine in the teens does make it go away in my yard, but the neighbors across the street not so much. slope and how the lawn faces is a big determinant. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Feb 12, 2021 10:15:30 GMT -6
The v16 is going insane with the midweek system again Between it, the euro, and the operational gfs I think that could be a tremendous storm. Potentially historic run of weather we are about to embark on folks. Sun trying to break through here as well. Though I don’t believe it’ll do much to the 2” of sleet and snow base. |
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Post by SnowManJoe - Wentzville, MO on Feb 12, 2021 10:16:12 GMT -6
I can’t tell if it is blowing snow or not, but I think I am seeing some diamond dust today. Might be changing up my Science lesson this afternoon to talk about it.
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Post by weatherj on Feb 12, 2021 10:16:56 GMT -6
I like where I am...but I'm hoping for us all.
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 12, 2021 10:17:17 GMT -6
The GFS and GFS v16 have pretty different outcomes for the midweek system
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 12, 2021 10:17:33 GMT -6
GFSv16 midweek upper level setup. Yes please  |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 12, 2021 10:18:33 GMT -6
Great trends on the 12z models for 4"+ N/W half.
8"+ SE of 44/64
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 12, 2021 10:19:09 GMT -6
GFSv16 midweek upper level setup. Yes please Locked and loaded! |
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Post by jmg378s on Feb 12, 2021 10:19:10 GMT -6
The v16 is going insane with the midweek system again Interesting how the Pacific and Atlantic ridges flex at the same time and really help amplify the trough over the CONUS. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 12, 2021 10:19:37 GMT -6
I can’t tell if it is blowing snow or not, but I think I am seeing some diamond dust today. Might be changing up my Science lesson this afternoon to talk about it. I was thinking the same thing... |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 12, 2021 10:21:08 GMT -6
any wind? are we going to need a bigger box to measure?
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 12, 2021 10:23:31 GMT -6
Great trends on the 12z models for 4"+ N/W half. 8"+ SE of 44/64 There we go... |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 12, 2021 10:24:09 GMT -6
1040mb+ ridge across the Dakotas with a low spinning up through Dixie...I think wind will be a factor.
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 12, 2021 10:24:46 GMT -6
any wind? are we going to need a bigger box to measure? Wind won't be terrible. Nothing like 2014. However, with how light and fluffy snow will be it'll may move around even with light winds. Will definitely pick up as it goes. |
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 12, 2021 10:27:48 GMT -6
The v16 kuchera snowfall map is enough to even make 99 blush.
19" at 10:1 over union!
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 12, 2021 10:28:54 GMT -6
St. Peters could be snowed in for life by this time next week.
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 12, 2021 10:31:02 GMT -6
Oh friv not for live just til 4th of july
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 12, 2021 10:34:15 GMT -6
Donner party redoux.
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Post by bdgwx on Feb 12, 2021 10:36:41 GMT -6
That jet coupling looks awesome on GFSv16. Let's get the Euro to jump onboard.
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Post by bdgwx on Feb 12, 2021 10:39:27 GMT -6
We are 60 hours from first flakes flying so we'll have to start more seriously considering totals by tomorrow morning or even tonight. The 12Z GFS's are consistent with calls for a 6" event so let's see if we can get the UKMET and Euro to hold the course as well.
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Post by House Springs ~ DeerKiller ~ on Feb 12, 2021 10:42:03 GMT -6
To early to predict a starting time Sunday?
Got all my Roses and chocolate Covered Strawberries for Valentine's Day wondering if I need to make announcements for folks to come early 🤷
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 12, 2021 10:44:02 GMT -6
9z sref mean was 6.67 through Monday night at KSTL
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Post by bdgwx on Feb 12, 2021 10:46:31 GMT -6
The vertical slanting of the storm has improved some on the GFS. There is now only a 600 km difference from the 850mb low to the surface low. Unfortunately the track of the 850mb low has nudged south of the benchmark.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 12, 2021 10:49:11 GMT -6
GEFS has been holding pretty consistent with 0.3 QPF in the northern counties, 0.4 in the metro, and 0.5 in the southern counties. With high ratios that's a good signal for 5-7" area wide
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 12, 2021 11:00:04 GMT -6
Ukie QPF. Lines up very well with the GEFS  |
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