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Post by dschreib on Feb 12, 2021 11:12:07 GMT -6
12z GFS and NAM output for KSAR were nearly identical for the first 84 hours--0.46, with slightly less amounts as you go to BLV (0.41) and STL (0.37). This is the longest I can remember models being basically in agreement (for a good solution) this far out, which means all hell is going to break loose in tonight's runs. It's been fun while it lasted. Enjoy your foot of snow, BRTN.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 12, 2021 11:12:27 GMT -6
Seems to be a lot of support for 0.3-0.4" QPF...with 15:1 average SLR that strongly supports 4-6" with potential for more.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 12, 2021 11:13:10 GMT -6
Ha, we'll see about that!
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 12, 2021 11:22:41 GMT -6
Ukmet has the mid week system as well. Really hammers the SE half of the area
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 12, 2021 11:23:53 GMT -6
So inspite of the H5 vorticity tracking so far North..
As the system ejects into the Missouri and then Ohio valleys...
The jet phase with heights falls across the Ohio valley as the system approaches.
With winds backing into a raging jet to our South by the time the vorticity passes us.
This seriously slants the entire system.
The most recent happening of this was last winter when we had a strong vorticity track NW of the benchmark and the precip never touched STL.
This is a really hard thing to quantify because it's definitely anomolous.
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Post by Jeffmw on Feb 12, 2021 11:26:16 GMT -6
Why is there no 11am news today on Fox2.
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Post by cozpregon on Feb 12, 2021 11:33:46 GMT -6
So inspite of the H5 vorticity tracking so far North.. As the system ejects into the Missouri and then Ohio valleys... The jet phase with heights falls across the Ohio valley as the system approaches. With winds backing into a raging jet to our South by the time the vorticity passes us. This seriously slants the entire system. The most recent happening of this was last winter when we had a strong vorticity track NW of the benchmark and the precip never touched STL. This is a really hard thing to quantify because it's definitely anomolous. Usually we try to make reasons for why it will happen... now we are trying to make reasons for why it won't |
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Feb 12, 2021 11:35:57 GMT -6
Sunshine and blue skies. Sun feels good.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Feb 12, 2021 11:36:50 GMT -6
Why is there no 11am news today on Fox2. They're working on moving in to the new studio this weekend. On Facebook Brigett Mahoney teased that they'll reveal it Sunday evening. I think that was part of Chris's “special project “ this week until he got detoured into the Storm Runner chasing the snow and ice |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Feb 12, 2021 11:38:20 GMT -6
Sunshine and blue skies. Sun feels good. Looks beautiful, too. Improves my disposition. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 12, 2021 11:43:55 GMT -6
I wouldn't overthink things too much...you have to figure with a healthy mid-level vort lifting into the region and becoming negatively tilted with a very cold airmass in place, it's going to snow. At least we're not worrying about P-type issues or a last minute NW shift that screws us. Dry air or more suppression is the primary concern.
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 12, 2021 11:47:40 GMT -6
plenty of time for sun, now's the time for clouds and cold, and no melting the little snow we have,  |
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 12, 2021 12:04:43 GMT -6
At 14 degrees I am loosing no snow in the yard, and just some sublimation in the drive. Dont worry the snow is here to stay
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 12, 2021 12:04:53 GMT -6
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1133 AM CST Fri Feb 12 2021
...New Short Term, Aviation...
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Saturday/
Key Messages (now through Saturday):
(1) Isolated bands of lake effect snow have developed near some of
the lakes across North Texas. Some of these snow bands may result
in localized reductions in visibility to less than one mile, and
quick snow accumulations of up to one-half inch.
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 12, 2021 12:15:56 GMT -6
uh oh. euro sucks..quite a bit drier
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gonefishin - WashMO
Junior Forecaster
Washington, Franklin County, MO
Posts: 491 
Snowfall Events: 2013-2014: A lot!
2014-2015: If you forecast it, it will come!
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Post by gonefishin - WashMO on Feb 12, 2021 12:18:44 GMT -6
More like jam packed maternity wards in 9 months. |
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 12, 2021 12:20:43 GMT -6
Euro still 3 to 6
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 12, 2021 12:23:40 GMT -6
Yep. 3" is low in entire area at 10:1 . |
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Post by bdgwx on Feb 12, 2021 12:26:21 GMT -6
It has about 4-5" on its snow depth product for the metro area. 850mb low track is way south so we don't get much from wave 2.
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 12, 2021 12:26:32 GMT -6
I'm just saying..compared to last night it lost about .2
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 12, 2021 12:29:15 GMT -6
Also full sun and I am stuck at 14. Thats impressive for mid feb.
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 12, 2021 12:30:43 GMT -6
Euro is somewhat better with the midweek system than it was last night..however it really has it fall apart. I don't buy that all. If anything that storm should be stronger than Monday's
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Feb 12, 2021 12:35:08 GMT -6
I just read something kind of interesting..... the article said that with the lack of air travel there is much less data from Aircrafts that is used in the models and has caused the models to underperform.... makes some sense
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Post by amstilost on Feb 12, 2021 12:43:10 GMT -6
Full sun, driveway ice patch has melted to liquid, temp 23* 7 miles west of De Soto.
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 12, 2021 12:44:45 GMT -6
The sun is soooo nice. Just wish it was warmer. Clouds starting to aproach bow from the northwest in my area
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 12, 2021 12:47:56 GMT -6
Not a lick of melting just some sublimation. Every blade of grass is covered in my subdivision.  |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 12, 2021 12:49:12 GMT -6
I'm just saying..compared to last night it lost about .2 That second wave associated with the upper level trough has been coming in weaker with the first wave coming in stronger. |
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 12, 2021 12:50:28 GMT -6
Proof  |
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 12, 2021 12:57:14 GMT -6
There's melting you're just not noticing it.
I went to a drive thru pharmacy and there was dripping from the roof hitting my car. Sun melts.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 12, 2021 13:00:49 GMT -6
While reaching warning level of snow is still questionable, I wonder if the combo of brutal cold and the snow will make the NWS consider issuing watches/warnings. Accumulating snow with temps near zero is some very rare stuff around here and going to make the roads hell
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