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Post by snowjunky on Jan 22, 2021 8:03:14 GMT -6
Here are my top 5 things I miss about the good ole days when there was.....
The Friv-O-Meter
Watching for weather models to go KABOOM status.
Posting snow fall total maps under 5 days.
Chris’s snowfall map drawing closely resembling the male anatomy.
The complaining that Chicago and the North East get all the snow.
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gonefishin - WashMO
Junior Forecaster
Washington, Franklin County, MO
Posts: 491 
Snowfall Events: 2013-2014: A lot!
2014-2015: If you forecast it, it will come!
Member is Online
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Post by gonefishin - WashMO on Jan 22, 2021 8:27:38 GMT -6
Here are my top 5 things I miss about the good ole days when there was..... The Friv-O-Meter Watching for weather models to go KABOOM status. Posting snow fall total maps under 5 days. Chris’s snowfall map drawing closely resembling the male anatomy. The complaining that Chicago and the North East get all the snow. I about spit my drink all over my desk when I read #4. Those maps were nuts! (insert giggles here) |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 22, 2021 8:28:54 GMT -6
i know glenn was teasing up the winter precip last night in his teasers but i didnt watch his forecast. but based on what ive seen, any potential winter wx wld be bookend style...that is, initial onset, and tail end wraparound. main even features lots of rain, and an extended period at that as waves of low pressure ride up through the area. thinking 1 to 2 inches of rain not out of the question. watching another rapidly decaying/shredding storm system mid to late week, but surface temps and intensity of precip do not present any significant accum potential. time of day could allow for another .3 of inch of accums if it happened at dark.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 22, 2021 8:29:41 GMT -6
Here are my top 5 things I miss about the good ole days when there was..... The Friv-O-Meter Watching for weather models to go KABOOM status. Posting snow fall total maps under 5 days. Chris’s snowfall map drawing closely resembling the male anatomy. The complaining that Chicago and the North East get all the snow. I about spit my drink all over my desk when I read #4. Those maps were nuts! (insert giggles here) that ended up being a small storm but for some ppl it was hard to get around. |
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Post by mchafin on Jan 22, 2021 9:36:59 GMT -6
you guys..12z NAM 12km?
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 22, 2021 9:39:15 GMT -6
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 22, 2021 9:52:38 GMT -6
12z gfs is north and strong
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 22, 2021 10:04:31 GMT -6
I think most model solutions continue to be substantially too strong/amplified with this system...I seriously doubt a sub-1000mb cyclone is going to develop with a shearing/dampening wave. I could be wrong, but I'm calling BS. I've seen models do this too many times this season only to correct south with a weaker system.
The north half to third of the CWA is still very much in play with this, IMO.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 22, 2021 10:08:40 GMT -6
I would not expect the system to be organized at all. I bet later runs will show it sheared out.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 22, 2021 10:10:48 GMT -6
Lol, so much wishcasting.
We have seen plenty of lows that were fairly strong and then went poof this year.
This one just does it a bit further northeast.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 22, 2021 10:23:59 GMT -6
It's not wishcasting...more like not taking models at face value when they have shown consistent bias all season.
Wishcasting would be saying the metro is gonna get smoked...not saying the northern parts of the area still have a chance at some wintry weather.
The model worshiping here is laughable at times.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 22, 2021 10:40:25 GMT -6
I agree no wish casting, non of us ever said the metro was going to get much no matter the outcome.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 22, 2021 10:40:36 GMT -6
It’s no more wish casting than you screaming everything is going north for snow in the north , that definitely gets annoying
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Post by landscaper on Jan 22, 2021 10:44:43 GMT -6
I definitely think this is not a metro storm , but I still think as we get closer models will tone down some and come out a little flatter, unfortunately probably not enough to effect our weather here. This is a big rain soaker are only hope is for a little weaker storm and maybe a little light snow at the very end
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 22, 2021 10:49:59 GMT -6
Now I could see the wednesday system being a 1 to 2 inch snow for much of the area. But time will tell.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 22, 2021 11:02:53 GMT -6
The Wednesday system is looking decent for possibly an advisory-level snowfall...but plenty of time for that to vaporize into a nothingburger.
Where's the beef?
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 22, 2021 11:05:10 GMT -6
I think most model solutions continue to be substantially too strong/amplified with this system...I seriously doubt a sub-1000mb cyclone is going to develop with a shearing/dampening wave. I could be wrong, but I'm calling BS. I've seen models do this too many times this season only to correct south with a weaker system. The north half to third of the CWA is still very much in play with this, IMO. Agree. This thing isn't to impressive looking on the upper level charts. All you have to do is look back at the NYE system to see how models like to over amplify these things. Its been a bias for years now on the models (especially the euro) to show a wound up system in the medium range only to slowly weaken it as it gets closer. Now will this system follow that trend? Impossible to say, but if I had to put money on it I would say northern Mo to central IL will see the most snow from this. And yes that includes the northern 1/3 of the area. No matter what happens all I'm seeing is rain in Arnold anyway lol. |
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 22, 2021 11:09:21 GMT -6
Ukmet has come south some not in the metro, but noticably south with the snow.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 22, 2021 11:10:24 GMT -6
Nws hazardous weather outlook is deceiving with 1 to 3 along and north of 70.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 22, 2021 11:16:07 GMT -6
Well I guess the ukie heard me because it smokes northern Mo into central IL including the northern counties
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 22, 2021 11:19:12 GMT -6
I would not discount the northern metro until sunday morning. Another 50 miles and a couple sloppy mixed bag inches could fall.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 22, 2021 11:21:36 GMT -6
Mmmmm, sloppy mixed bag inches...lol
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 22, 2021 11:22:01 GMT -6
Lol thought yall might like that lol
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Post by amstilost on Jan 22, 2021 11:40:13 GMT -6
Just have to love the depiction of the 2/5 system. The GFS another T shirt worthy candidate for the 15 day snow maps. There certainly is no visual shearing for that system. Sheesh. There is a maturing cyclone....IF it occurs. Pretty to look at even if it is too far north for us. Would certainly signal a flip/change in the pattern.
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 334
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Post by bob on Jan 22, 2021 12:01:36 GMT -6
Lets hope 12Z EURO comes south and shows us some love!!!!!
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 22, 2021 12:07:02 GMT -6
It’s no more wish casting than you screaming everything is going north for snow in the north , that definitely gets annoying Don’t remember ever doing this. Half the time you ask what model X is showing. Last night the gfs and ggem both came in north. I was very matter of fact. |
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 22, 2021 12:11:38 GMT -6
Euro is not budging its northern solution
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 22, 2021 12:16:13 GMT -6
Euro is not budging its northern solution Surface low looks a bit south to me on the 24 hour charts |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 22, 2021 12:19:14 GMT -6
Euro is not budging its northern solution Surface low looks a bit south to me on the 24 hour charts Looks like a small shift south but that’s well within the range of just being run to run noise |
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iceman
Wishcaster
Arnold, MO
Posts: 104
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Post by iceman on Jan 22, 2021 13:28:38 GMT -6
Just looks to warm imo
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