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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 21, 2021 10:56:55 GMT -6
12z ukmet has the low in southeastern Missouri on the 24 hour charts, so a bit of a shift north from it.
Models really honing in on northern Missouri and central Illinois right now
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 21, 2021 10:59:27 GMT -6
Well, just got the 6 hour charts, and the ukmet actually looks like the euro now, so a pretty big jump north actually
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 21, 2021 11:44:19 GMT -6
Shouldn't be an issue since there's no precip expected today. NWS posted on Facebook that the radar is down for maintenance until 3 pm today.
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cowboy
Wishcaster
10 miles west of rolla
Posts: 197 
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Post by cowboy on Jan 21, 2021 11:55:17 GMT -6
I am a big fan of BAM weather and they have a really good free video out today that explains allot about what has been happening and what is most likely going to happen. They have consistently stayed warm all winter and so far have beat the models and competitors. I am pretty sure I have seen Landscaper mention BAM as well.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 21, 2021 12:27:58 GMT -6
Atleast we still have the futility record
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 21, 2021 12:42:00 GMT -6
12z euro is virtually unchanged from the last 6 runs or so.
Surface low might be a hair south compared to previous runs, but probably just noise vs. anything meaningful.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 21, 2021 13:13:54 GMT -6
Well I for one hope you can cash in WSC. You're still very active on the forum and always rooting for STL snow. As for the futility record, it feels like going into a sports game with high hopes only to have a blow out half way through. Then there's the strange part of you that says "let's see just how bad it can get."
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 21, 2021 13:17:11 GMT -6
EPS low locations. Still a strong clustering around the Paducah area. Maybe if we’re lucky we can get a rainy deformation zone  |
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 21, 2021 13:24:40 GMT -6
Someone has to get screwed and that's the STL metro again. I agree even if we get the right track, the temps will be too borderline.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 21, 2021 15:35:41 GMT -6
I still think there’s a chance for accumulating snow I 70 area and north in Missouri. The icon has dropped south the last three runs and now looks like the gem . There has definitely been much more of a southern trend and less amped up storms in the long range. The euro has been the king of over amped and to deep which cause a northern trend. Maybe I’m wrong but there’s definitely a chance, a slightly weaker storm will create less northern push and a more favorable trajectory.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 21, 2021 15:42:03 GMT -6
I still think there’s a chance for accumulating snow I 70 area and north in Missouri. The icon has dropped south the last three runs and now looks like the gem . There has definitely been much more of a southern trend and less amped up storms in the long range. The euro has been the king of over amped and to deep which cause a northern trend. Maybe I’m wrong but there’s definitely a chance, a slightly weaker storm will create less northern push and a more favorable trajectory. Strongly agree. The old, reliable "NW trend" seems to be a thing of the past. But then again, so do deepening, mature cyclones... I thought for sure the -EPO would develop and lengthen the wavelength across NA...but that doesn't seem to be the case. Models are showing a rapid fire stream of shortwaves digging into the Great Basin and ejecting out across the Plains and Midwest the next 10+ days. Hopefully we can catch some goods from at least one of those systems. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 21, 2021 15:43:13 GMT -6
The GEM has definitely handled systems like this the best so far this winter...the Euro...not-so-much!
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 21, 2021 15:47:27 GMT -6
18z ICON hits the northern counties hard
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 21, 2021 16:05:06 GMT -6
18z GFS jackpots the area with the deformation zone but it’s all rain. Pesky warm wedge just below 850mb
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 21, 2021 18:44:53 GMT -6
Both the 12z GEFS and NAEFS look good for the northern half of the area...but definitely a borderline thermo profile(shocking, I know).
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 21, 2021 19:24:56 GMT -6
Both the 12z GEFS and NAEFS look good for the northern half of the area...but definitely a borderline thermo profile(shocking, I know). Ya with these too close to call events, I'd rather have no event at all. Ugh... I mean I guess its something to track. This season has left so many of us bitter. Haha |
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Post by amstilost on Jan 21, 2021 20:00:05 GMT -6
I know it's been mentioned before but we have to get a snow shield laid down to our north. I know it's been mentioned that when there's a snow shield down the cold or the storm track seems to get edged further south. And the only way we're going to get a consistent snow shield laid to our north is to get the fire hose from the Pacific shut off. Sooo, how did that workout when Oklahoma, Arkansas, Texas, and Louisiana got accumulating snow? More than anything, we just need less sheared out garbage. For instance, the storm behind the Monday one would be good for the metro if it didn’t get ripped apart. Believe me, that was in my head as I was writing that. They were just the 'eye' of the needle during that 'threadin'. I just know that the snow shield to our north has been brought up numerous times over the past winters and Chris also mentioned the lack of cold to our north. I read several different threads/blogs about the -EPO while waiting in a car today and a few were still pretty optimistic about the prospects turning around for cold and snow for central and eastern US toward the end of January through early Feb. Granted, "central" could mean just north of St. Louis, but the optimism for the -EPO was what sucked me in again. Also, late January into early Feb. is not a very long time either. I can only hope for something that gives me enough/plenty of snow to have some fun with the grandkids. Also being able to track what specific change resulted in said snowfall. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 21, 2021 20:39:45 GMT -6
18z euro control remains north.
Model of consistency
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Post by jeepers on Jan 21, 2021 21:18:53 GMT -6
Two winters prior to this, got some really decent snows when traveling to Wisconsin. Feel like the only way to get one is to be much further north. Spitting on us is just a tease.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 21, 2021 21:24:48 GMT -6
00z Icon is nice for STL
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 21, 2021 21:43:58 GMT -6
Still a mainly rain deformation zone. Blah |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 21, 2021 21:55:49 GMT -6
00z gfs bows to the euro
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 21, 2021 22:29:36 GMT -6
00z gem bows to the euro as well
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 22, 2021 5:21:30 GMT -6
As precip moves in Saturday night are we expecting any IP or ZR?
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Post by landscaper on Jan 22, 2021 6:28:47 GMT -6
I think there’s a good chance for a light mix of freezing rain and sleet starting sometime in the evening Saturday through early morning Sunday temps 30-32 but the ground will fairly cold with a low in the teens tonight. Probably a salting or two type storm
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 22, 2021 7:09:01 GMT -6
6Z NAM is something else, a thump of several inches of snow/sleet followed by a change over to a cold rain but it stands alone. RPDS/GFS both show a chilly/cold rain start to finish most likely scenario. As for Precip types starting Saturday night I'm thinking southern 2/3rd stay liquid throughout, northern third starts with sleet, then freezing rain, before switching to plain rain before ending with 3-8" of wet snow. A dusting could occur as far south as I-70 by the time the system is entirely finished.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 22, 2021 7:40:39 GMT -6
6Z NAM is something else, a thump of several inches of snow/sleet followed by a change over to a cold rain but it stands alone. RPDS/GFS both show a chilly/cold rain start to finish most likely scenario. As for Precip types starting Saturday night I'm thinking southern 2/3rd stay liquid throughout, northern third starts with sleet, then freezing rain, before switching to plain rain before ending with 3-8" of wet snow. A dusting could occur as far south as I-70 by the time the system is entirely finished. 6z euro says no to everything you said, besides the rain. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 22, 2021 7:55:58 GMT -6
HRRR 12Z is warm for the start time also shows very little reaching the ground up to 12AM Sunday for that matter. Probably for the best if it verifies. HRRR shows mid 40s to mid 30s west to east with mid/upper 30s in metro Saint Louis.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 22, 2021 7:57:50 GMT -6
6Z NAM is something else, a thump of several inches of snow/sleet followed by a change over to a cold rain but it stands alone. RPDS/GFS both show a chilly/cold rain start to finish most likely scenario. As for Precip types starting Saturday night I'm thinking southern 2/3rd stay liquid throughout, northern third starts with sleet, then freezing rain, before switching to plain rain before ending with 3-8" of wet snow. A dusting could occur as far south as I-70 by the time the system is entirely finished. 6z euro says no to everything you said, besides the rain. Because I have no access to the 6 and 18Z Euro I cannot factor it into my forecasts. That's not to say it doesn't matter. It does, but without access to it I can't use it. The message is the same regardless though, this yet again isn't our storm. |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 22, 2021 7:59:53 GMT -6
I think the NAM is way off but euro is to far north and to wound up . I think there will be a slightly weaker storm than it’s showing. Our best chance of anything good is Saturday night and next Wednesday.
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