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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 26, 2021 9:50:56 GMT -6
 Had some dry air issues last night, but there is ice on the lake and snow on the ground so can’t complain too much up here. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 26, 2021 9:56:56 GMT -6
NAM is showing LSRs at 12:1 tomorrow morning when the best lift is moving through. The timing of this event should help accumulations Mid-levels are pretty cold...hopefully the steep lapse rates up near the DGZ helps with crystal growth. |
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 26, 2021 10:10:31 GMT -6
NAM is showing LSRs at 12:1 tomorrow morning when the best lift is moving through. The timing of this event should help accumulations Mid-levels are pretty cold...hopefully the steep lapse rates up near the DGZ helps with crystal growth. Soundings look good for a couple hours centered around 900am or so. |
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 26, 2021 10:14:22 GMT -6
Had some dry air issues last night, but there is ice on the lake and snow on the ground so can’t complain too much up here. Saw OHare had 5" |
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 26, 2021 10:16:36 GMT -6
Gem is darn near 2 to 4 inches now
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Post by landscaper on Jan 26, 2021 10:24:27 GMT -6
Gem/RGEM are always too juiced up, cut that in half for sure
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 26, 2021 10:29:30 GMT -6
We did forecasting for you Landscaper... didn't we?
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 26, 2021 10:31:32 GMT -6
Good looking sounding off the RAP tomorrow morning. Deep DGZ with steep lapse rates through a portion of it. Lift is constant throughout the column. Would be some good flakeage if it’s correct  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 26, 2021 11:07:36 GMT -6
That's a surprisingly nice sounding...good saturation, lift and lapse rates up to 400mb should result in efficient snow growth.
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 26, 2021 11:13:16 GMT -6
Interesting series of soundings from Birmingham last night. Prior to deadly Fultondale tornado T/Td was 71/62 and just after it was 71/66. No change in 1km SRH at ~330 m2/s2, but CAPE increased by ~700 j/kg to over 1000 j/kg overnight due to moisture advection. Quite favorable for strong tornadoes.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 26, 2021 11:17:25 GMT -6
Coz, you did, those were the good ole days, Surface Systems was pretty solid most of the time. They were the innovators of the ground temp system . There’s really no good in town service anymore. Unfortunately , a lot of the weather services now have very young new Mets that are just not used to /experienced forecasting for snow and ice removal. It seems like a lot of scripted forecasts with not a good understanding of pavement temps/precipitation rates/forms and effects of evaporated cooling etc. Being out of town they are unaware of what is actually happening in St. Louis , especially overnight forecasts that rely on NWS zone updates. I’m sure they will learn with time .
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 26, 2021 11:34:37 GMT -6
Those were the good ole days. I would say we had the best snow/ice forecasting team in the country at that time. It was fun.
Seemed forecasting was easier back then. The old NGM... which turned in the NAM and the AVN which is now the GFS were static models- they never tweaked the parameters- so you knew their biases and in my mind were more reliable. Now the models are constantly changing and make it more difficult to get the "feel" of the models. Plus there are many more out there to add to the confusion.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 26, 2021 11:43:27 GMT -6
I totally agree, it was more broad brush modeling, a lot less wild swings . You definitely didn’t have the meso capabilities back then , but you are correct each model had its biases and often depending on the ordination of the storm you could predict where it was headed and most likely what it would do.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 26, 2021 11:48:38 GMT -6
Coz did surface systems own the road surface sensors in STL? I remember seeing one of the locals posting obs from those occasionally years ago but haven't seen that lately.
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 26, 2021 11:56:02 GMT -6
Yes we did. Still some around- going on I70 from STL county to STC county before you hit the bridge we have one the towers on the right that connects to the road sensors in the bridge. Another on I44 at Times Beach. St Peters at Dardenne Creek. Strangely... MODOT and STL were rather cheap and never invested in too many while I was there. We did have Lambert & Spirit though.
We got bought out several times... I believe Vaisala up in Washington State owns them now. I believe they just got a big contract from MODOT and have been installing them along the interstates lately.
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 26, 2021 11:57:25 GMT -6
Illinois/Colorado & Wisconsin were our big 3 at the start... eventually we were in some capacity all the states except along the Gulf Coast.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 26, 2021 12:01:07 GMT -6
One thing I've noticed with models over the years is that they have become exponentially better in the longer range, but arguably worse in the short to medium range. The regular tweaking of the physics and attempts to correct bias makes it more difficult for forecasters to use them as tools instead of forecasts for sure.
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 26, 2021 12:04:31 GMT -6
One thing I've noticed with models over the years is that they have become exponentially better in the longer range, but arguably worse in the short to medium range. The regular tweaking of the physics and attempts to correct bias makes it more difficult for forecasters to use them as tools instead of forecasts for sure. Rarely did we go out past 5 days for our forecast. Except on our utility side- like Ameren/Laclede etc... we went out up to 2 weeks for our temperature forecast. |
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 26, 2021 12:27:19 GMT -6
Euro is starting to look a bit interesting this weekend
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 26, 2021 12:30:39 GMT -6
That cyclone models have been picking up on towards the middle of next week looks like a bruiser...could be a severe threat with that and/or heavy rain potential. And it looks like it could usher in a large-scale pattern change towards a colder regime...although we've seen that before and it didn't really verify.
Definitely no lack of weather the next week to 10 days or more for sure.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 26, 2021 12:31:43 GMT -6
Euro is starting to look a bit interesting this weekend Ukmet had some backside potential with that system. If you factor in the multi year trend of systems coming in more sheared out the closer we get that’s worth keeping an eye on |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 26, 2021 12:34:12 GMT -6
Yes another 50-100 mile south and we would be in a good spot
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 26, 2021 12:36:25 GMT -6
I actually think febuary may not be terrible. Not saying a grandslam because we know our trends, however I could see a 5 to 10 inch storm sneak our way in this pattern. Its just a guess but, I vaguely like the trends.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 26, 2021 12:41:09 GMT -6
12z euro smacks the metro east. The Illinois side could be in business
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 26, 2021 12:44:19 GMT -6
I agree wsc trends are getting it very close.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 26, 2021 12:51:37 GMT -6
I actually think febuary may not be terrible. Not saying a grandslam because we know our trends, however I could see a 5 to 10 inch storm sneak our way in this pattern. Its just a guess but, I vaguely like the trends. As of a couple days ago the teleconnnections didn’t look to bad for the first half of the month. They were forecasting the EPO to skyrocket as we got into February but really backed off on that. I’ll have to check them later today and see if that’s still true |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 26, 2021 12:53:54 GMT -6
I also just saw the MJO maybe going into “better” colder phases going into February. That always helps out here. It would be nice to get an inch tomorrow and then something this weekend. Even if it was some light backside snow
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Post by weatherj on Jan 26, 2021 13:06:27 GMT -6
12z euro smacks the metro east. The Illinois side could be in business Is this tomorrow night or this coming weekend? |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 26, 2021 13:17:27 GMT -6
12z euro smacks the metro east. The Illinois side could be in business Is this tomorrow night or this coming weekend? The weekend |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 26, 2021 13:24:05 GMT -6
18z RAP and HRRR still looking solid tomorrow morning
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