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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 26, 2021 13:33:31 GMT -6
 Had some dry air issues last night, but there is ice on the lake and snow on the ground so can’t complain too much up here. Looks fun. Glad you finally got some decent snow! |
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 26, 2021 13:37:03 GMT -6
Flagstaff AZ has been involved in the snow fun too. A 34-40" report in Forest Lakes is the biggest snow accumulation so far. www.weather.gov/fgz/ |
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 26, 2021 13:47:37 GMT -6
Flagstaff AZ has been involved in the snow fun too. A 34-40" report in Forest Lakes is the biggest snow accumulation so far. www.weather.gov/fgz/My wife loves snow and I keep telling her Flagstaff is the place to go for snow lovers. She keeps insisting on Denver though. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 26, 2021 13:58:03 GMT -6
18z NAM looking solid tomorrow as well. Let’s keep reeling her in
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 26, 2021 13:59:11 GMT -6
Im pretty sure it will snow tomorrow. much less certain what, if any will stick.
Time of day will not help along with wet ground. Cross sections I saw this AM did have a bubble of CAPE way up high... colocated with max lift. But only for a short time, and above the DGZ.
All things being equal, some will see very little... but a few spots may get close to 1"... so inch or less still feels good as a forecast.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 26, 2021 14:05:17 GMT -6
Nam looks much better at 18z. I'd like to see it come in just a couple hours earlier. If we can get onset with temps a couple degrees below freezing I could see up to 2" or so for the southern half of the viewing area.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 26, 2021 14:06:02 GMT -6
That’s good the models are still looking good, this is about the time they usually start drying up around St. Louis.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 26, 2021 14:12:24 GMT -6
That transfer of energy/pivot that the EC and GEM show with the weekend storm is interesting...if that trend holds, there could be some decent wrap around snow potential. But warm/wet ground would probably be an issue for accumulation. Another good example of the southward/flatter adjustment in modeling in the medium range.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 26, 2021 14:59:34 GMT -6
The Sierra Nevada is about to get blasted
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 26, 2021 15:07:33 GMT -6
RGEM with a juicy 18z run for tomorrow
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Post by landscaper on Jan 26, 2021 15:13:26 GMT -6
For once it would be so nice to get an over performing storm. Usually every other year we get one surprise little that delivers more than forecast.
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Post by mosue56 on Jan 26, 2021 15:19:06 GMT -6
Just glad somethings happening in January, it’s still winter! The thunder the other night was unreal!
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 26, 2021 15:23:45 GMT -6
Yea, every single model is actually beefing it up a little here as we get closer. 2-3" would be nice, but I'm not expecting that either. We shall see.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 26, 2021 15:25:23 GMT -6
Of course I say that then look at the NWS forecast and it lowered the totals from near an inch to a half inch.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 26, 2021 15:32:08 GMT -6
Yea, every single model is actually beefing it up a little here as we get closer. 2-3" would be nice, but I'm not expecting that either. We shall see. I was alittle surprised the NWS didn’t raise totals slightly along 44 and into the metro. Models seem to be favoring that area for 1-2” |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 26, 2021 15:41:27 GMT -6
Warm and wet ground. Light intensity. Daytime. You know the usual late January accumulation problems. Be just like an April snow like last week. Might stick to the individual blades of grass and some elevated things for a little while. Hope I'm wrong but this is just sad. Only to be followed by another soaker this weekend.
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Post by amstilost on Jan 26, 2021 15:41:42 GMT -6
This is such a cool view. It also shows our overnight system. Looks 'fairly' energetic on satellite. The loop is 60 frames long. Looks like some jet streaks coming up the eastern side of the system through central TX. Check out the monster on the west coast. The clarity even after zooming in is stunning. Also, is that Yellowstone caldera in northern WY? Hopefully the lack of snow cover in the caldera (pretty sure that is what it is) is due to lower elevation and not the ground being 'warmed up'.  Satellite Loop |
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 26, 2021 15:45:10 GMT -6
We'll see what happens on the 21Z update, but the 15Z update from the SREF had about 0.3" at the airport.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 26, 2021 15:58:43 GMT -6
Liquid or snow total?
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 26, 2021 16:14:29 GMT -6
21Z RAP jackpots the metro with around 3".
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 26, 2021 16:15:15 GMT -6
Wet ground is not much of a factor when temps are in the upper 20’s...
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 26, 2021 16:25:42 GMT -6
Probably won't be upper 20s when it starts. We had almost 2 inches of rain here. It's a sloppy swampy mess. Unless it's below freezing for quite a while I don't see it sticking to water.
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Jan 26, 2021 16:26:21 GMT -6
After the storm in the backyard. A news person in Bellevue measured just over 14 inches. I believe it. Almost didn't get out of my neighborhood this morning since the plow didn't go through. Had to turn and go downhill to get to the main road.   |
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 26, 2021 16:30:29 GMT -6
Temp 29 already
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 26, 2021 16:31:26 GMT -6
Probably won't be upper 20s when it starts. We had almost 2 inches of rain here. It's a sloppy swampy mess. Unless it's below freezing for quite a while I don't see it sticking to water. As long as snow starts falling by time diurnal heating starts taking over (9am or so) we should have surface temps in the upper 20s. They will warm a few degrees in the middle of the day but with a northerly wind it won’t be much. |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 26, 2021 16:38:02 GMT -6
We’re at freezing now , the lows tonight range from 25-28 depending on the area , snow should develop 6-8 am it should still be well below by a few degrees at onset. The ground won’t freeze solid tonight but it should definitely be cold enough for snow to stick this time. The last storm we knew temps would be in the 33-35 range with the snow and we were hoping the higher rates would help with accumulation and lower the temps. That did not happen. Now if it doesn’t get real cold tonight and the snow is delayed until mid day then yes I do agree less accumulation for sure. There has definitely been an uptick in qpf along and up I44 corridor into the metro. Hopefully that trend holds through out the night and into tomorrow. I still like 1” or less , but if model trends hold the course this evening and overnight that might be a lotto low. I’m just not ready to bump the amount up
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 26, 2021 16:38:14 GMT -6
What the is it like to have a thick blanket of snow? Those make me sad labrat.
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 26, 2021 16:48:53 GMT -6
What if I told you that the ground temps are still in the 35-37° range even after it’s been at 33° all day.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 26, 2021 16:52:21 GMT -6
What if I told you that the ground temps are still in the 35-37° range even after it’s been at 33° all day. Not surprising considering lows have been right around freezing for several days. If it comes down at a good clip early in the morning, we should get enough of a coating to allow efficient accumulation. If it starts later in the morning, or snow rates are meager there could be quite a bit of melting to overcome. |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 26, 2021 16:55:27 GMT -6
They usually are about 2 degrees above air temps , it’s a good rule of thumb to follow, they will drop below freezing overnight by morning as long as we fall into the 20’s like forecasted
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