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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 11, 2021 18:32:15 GMT -6
There are two reasons I don't post as much. 1) I don't get excited about fantasy snow on day 10. 2) This shift is killing me. Phhsically and mentally it is killing me. I don"t have the energy to get spun up over a chance for flurries in 4 days. Besides... you guys have progressed to the point I can take the tranning wheels off and let you drive this thing on your own. It is way past my bed time.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 11, 2021 18:53:12 GMT -6
I really wish Chris had gotten the chief job. I'm afraid he's going to go someplace else with normal hours.  |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 11, 2021 19:47:27 GMT -6
I really wish Chris had gotten the chief job. I'm afraid he's going to go someplace else with normal hours. This 10000000%. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 11, 2021 20:35:10 GMT -6
NAM throwing some support to the RDPS. Interesting
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 11, 2021 21:18:21 GMT -6
NAM throwing some support to the RDPS. Interesting Has a classic post frontal snow look.  |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 11, 2021 21:25:14 GMT -6
RPDS continues to show the secondary development as well, if not more stronger. The energy phasing and negative tilt as it moves through is interesting. If the GFS/GEM can catch on we might. Might have a watcher on our hands.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 11, 2021 21:29:25 GMT -6
Some interesting 18z euro ensemble members as well.
We are getting closer to owing the euro an apology
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 11, 2021 21:50:35 GMT -6
ICON nails the southeast again including TX, AR, and northern Louisiana Saturday night/Sunday.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 11, 2021 21:52:04 GMT -6
GFS jumping aboard as well, but not as wrapped up as the NAM/RPDS, but it's all about trends at this phase. Wagons south this go around might actually work to our benefit.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 11, 2021 21:59:05 GMT -6
Plenty of moisture left behind the upper level trough to warrant some solid snow showers and squalls all the way up to the 500MB level. GFS shows some moderate snow showers as well @ 96 hours as an embedded shortwave moves through, could yield an inch or so in some scattered bands.
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Post by amstilost on Jan 11, 2021 22:15:24 GMT -6
Is it safe to say the negative NAO is the cause of the big storm pinwheeling around the Great Lakes this weekend? The storm basically puts the brakes on 12z Thurs. morning a little north of N.D. then reforms over UP MI at 12z Fri. morning, then pinwheels around until a secondary develops off the E.C. 12z Sat. morning for what I am sure will become a Nor'Easter.And our weather continues to "deliver the Sh@%".
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Post by landscaper on Jan 11, 2021 22:15:58 GMT -6
I’m not seeing any secondary on the gfs , just cold front rain and maybe a brief snow shower. It does have the snow squalls on Friday night. The Gem has a look similar to the RGEM . Maybe others will follow.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 11, 2021 22:25:09 GMT -6
All aboard the massive car burying scattered flurry and snow showers train.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 12, 2021 1:36:36 GMT -6
I really wish Chris had gotten the chief job. I'm afraid he's going to go someplace else with normal hours. This 10000000%. Nah... I'm staying put. This is home and Glenn has done a great job leading our crew and I work with the best crew in the business on the AM show. But getting up at 1230am everyday is not easy on the body or mind and it forces you to more tightly prioritize. I monitor the chatter here religiously, I just don't post as often. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 12, 2021 1:49:23 GMT -6
Whew....good to hear Chris. Those hours have got to be difficult.
Now bring us some snow, because this is atrocious.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 12, 2021 5:31:35 GMT -6
All I'm asking for is hours 330 to 348 on the 6z GFS. Is that so much to ask for?
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 12, 2021 5:58:02 GMT -6
Dropped 6° in the last 3 hours. Went from 28° down to 22° and it is quite frosty this morning
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Post by amstilost on Jan 12, 2021 6:30:52 GMT -6
Wow, the 06z GFS is our winter savior. A complete drought buster run of snow....FOR THE ENTIRE STATE. While the 0z run showed some snow around the state, this certainly appears to be a increase/continuation of the qz run. I know, understatement of the year so far. To be so different from the 18z run from Monday hopefully is at least a sign of the model 'sniffing' something out besides 'crack'. It would be nice to continue the trend....but 12-16" of snow Statewide would be amazing.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 12, 2021 6:52:31 GMT -6
when
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 12, 2021 7:15:20 GMT -6
Lol
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 12, 2021 7:28:14 GMT -6
It's fantasy range at this point. Good to see the trend and overall picture, but that's all you can say at this point. We need to reel that pattern in closer than 10 days out. It may very well flip back to the moderate fast/split flow at 12z today.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 12, 2021 7:38:31 GMT -6
It’s pretty bad when somebody is excited about hour 342 on the gfs lol.
I guess that’s where we are at now
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 12, 2021 7:56:33 GMT -6
huh, i guess its possible. kink in the jet just prior to the time in question, cold air in place. the model then evolves into a fast flow across the southern tier, a broad continental trough that is. book it. lol. of course it doesnt fit the pattern we have seen, but book it anyway. i got a long way to go to reach 22 inches of snow. my hunch is tomorrows models will dig the storm in the plains and that fast jet will sheer it apart. then the next day it will take it to MX then run it up the flagpole to our west, then the day after that, itll send across the northern plains and bring more snow to IA. Eventually it will lose the storm altogether. lol.
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Post by SnowManJoe - Wentzville, MO on Jan 12, 2021 8:25:31 GMT -6
my hunch is tomorrows models will dig the storm in the plains and that fast jet will sheer it apart. then the next day it will take it to MX then run it up the flagpole to our west, then the day after that, itll send across the northern plains and bring more snow to IA. Eventually it will lose the storm altogether. lol.  |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 12, 2021 8:44:21 GMT -6
12Z NAM still fun for Thursday evening into Friday with the post frontal snow as well as moderate to heavy snow showers respectively.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 12, 2021 8:54:35 GMT -6
Yea, good to see the NAM come back with more robust post-frontal precip again. Some folks could pick up an inch or two with that scenario, followed by some pretty stout snow showers the next day for sure. Northern half is favored at the moment.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 12, 2021 9:20:20 GMT -6
Friday NAM has an almost saturated column from the surface to 500mb with very steep lapse rates and 130j/kg CAPE. Sign me up  |
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 12, 2021 9:26:16 GMT -6
Be quite the flakeage.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 12, 2021 10:12:39 GMT -6
Good setup for streamers...and the GEM QPF field is picking up on that well.
Still think forecast temps on Friday are at least 5* too warm. Northern sections may not break out of the 20s...
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 12, 2021 11:21:29 GMT -6
Ukie looks good with the post frontal precep Thursday night but surface temps are a bit warm. It looks really good with the snow showers and squalls on Friday into Saturday morning
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