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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 12, 2021 22:33:41 GMT -6
00z GFS is just comical next week in the fantasy range. The moment we get moisture supply from the Gulf, it isn't cold enough. And in this case were on the northern edge. It would be nice to see a new pattern emerge after this SSW.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 12, 2021 22:39:26 GMT -6
GFSv16 has a lot of moisture next week but of course no cold
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 13, 2021 0:17:34 GMT -6
euro,,too bad it stinks lately. Maybe an inch or so.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 13, 2021 0:29:21 GMT -6
Euro looks further west with the surface low then other models. Has it stall out in SE MN and Iowa before moving south and fizzling out
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 13, 2021 0:56:57 GMT -6
Well we may want to keep a half a cross eye on next week. Most models show a system, euro has cold air, just wait about a week and see what we have. Haha.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 13, 2021 3:33:17 GMT -6
Probably won't be as cold this weekend as it was last weekend. Might feel colder with the wind, especially on Friday, but it's going to be pretty normal.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 13, 2021 8:56:10 GMT -6
thank you for posting the anomaly map. thats a widespread area of well below normal snow over the midwest and it is even worse down along OH valley. given latest models for med range, which line up well with the overall pattern, the EPO reverting to positive with only short stints of negative, this is an odd year. the NAO being negative helps the EC, but the pacific influence scours the cold out here in the MW. im close to conceding that its a swing and a miss as far as my expectations. we had the full range of possibilities based on enso and solar patterns but its clear that i errored by tossing the dry outliers out due to their being way out of the envelope. we should not be interested in digital snow 10 days out. thats a big bias of the models. i dont get excited by SSW because theres just too much ado over nothing. believe it or not, we dont need SSW to bring us an active winter. i dont see any rsn to think this years SSW is going to sustain a winter pattern. our demise has been the EPO and i dont see that changing.
im sure we will have solid shots at snow last half of winter. this is not a cancel winter post; but when we do have those shots, then the headache turns to the WAM, DAM, plus in february, we seem to be approaching that time of year in which gulf coast thunderstorms get greedy with the moisture. La Ninas are known for active thunderstorm years. its been my experience that weather likes to repeat until a large scale pattern changes. so we shld continue to see what we have been seeing, with some exceptions possible, of course.
this post saves face from me falling for that 2 more weeks boondoggle we had a few years ago.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 13, 2021 9:27:39 GMT -6
Speaking of the EPO, looks like we’re finally going to get it going negative the latter half of the month  |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 13, 2021 9:39:18 GMT -6
I can’t say it enough. EPO has to go negative. That chart is very encouraging. It has held onto that solution for a while now and being within 7-10 days of a negative dive is a great sign.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 13, 2021 9:44:12 GMT -6
Last night's GEM looks pretty stout with the clipper on Sunday...closes it off in the mid-levels as it digs in and pivots through. Not much moisture in tow, but it does print out accumulating snow across the N half at least.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 13, 2021 10:21:21 GMT -6
Tons of energy tucked into the SW by mid next week with the quasi-cutoff low. Surely it will wait for some cold air to play with right?
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 13, 2021 10:41:15 GMT -6
Our extreme temp gradient and intense cold is back on the gfs, now within the 8-10 day range as opposed to total fantasy. I think things are about to get wild across the country. That could leave us in the warm or cold sector, but I'm starting to feel like it's about to get real active.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 13, 2021 10:47:00 GMT -6
Tons of energy tucked into the SW by mid next week with the quasi-cutoff low. Surely it will wait for some cold air to play with right? Looks like a good setup for potentially multiple overrunning waves of ice/snow early next week...models kind of lost that storm for a bit but they are picking it up again. |
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Post by mosue56 on Jan 13, 2021 11:09:34 GMT -6
Hope Monday is weather free! Have a dental appt at noon!
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Jan 13, 2021 11:18:09 GMT -6
When we had some major wind up here before Christmas my deck chairs slid to the other side of the deck. Plus I lost a Tiki torch to the patio. I think I need to go home and secure the other Tiki torch before that one gets taken out.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 13, 2021 11:44:51 GMT -6
12z Ukmet printing out some solid totals from the wrap around snow Thursday night through Saturday morning with some more snow Sunday evening from clipper energy  |
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Post by weatherj on Jan 13, 2021 12:13:44 GMT -6
12z Ukmet printing out some solid totals from the wrap around snow Thursday night through Saturday morning with some more snow Sunday evening from clipper energy My house is jackpotted...hah. |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 13, 2021 12:21:56 GMT -6
What’s the Euro showing
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 13, 2021 12:53:41 GMT -6
Looks like an inch or so of backside stuff with some more snow showers around Sunday |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 13, 2021 13:30:37 GMT -6
12z Ukmet printing out some solid totals from the wrap around snow Thursday night through Saturday morning with some more snow Sunday evening from clipper energy My house is jackpotted...hah. theres a little snowhole over part of stc county. that is my house. but all things considered, not bad...verbatim 1 to 3 area wide. of course i probably wldnt jump on the bandwagon yet. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 13, 2021 14:48:05 GMT -6
NAM looks pretty good for most of the area to feel and look a little like winter Friday through Sat. The batch that pivots into northern MO is what will give us our best chance at an inch or so, maybe more for some lucky ones.
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 13, 2021 15:04:30 GMT -6
all meso's are looking strong for the 70-corridor. 15z looks really nice from COMO to STL.
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 13, 2021 15:05:56 GMT -6
EPO looking good... troughing in the SW US- polar low just west of Hudson Bay. If we don't get anything from this... come on spring.  |
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Post by mosue56 on Jan 13, 2021 15:21:58 GMT -6
What’s Friday looking like?
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 13, 2021 15:23:40 GMT -6
Friday will be snow showery, especially late morning into evening. Maybe up to an inch in places.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 13, 2021 15:26:33 GMT -6
I’m calling it now Friday night, the biggest snow of the year so far !  |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 13, 2021 15:27:14 GMT -6
1” or less area wide should about cover it
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 331 
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Post by bob on Jan 13, 2021 15:48:26 GMT -6
Interesting read from NWS Chicago. WC will be happy!!!
LOOKING BEYOND DAY 7, PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA CONTINUES TO
APPEAR ON VERY CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN TRENDS OF ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
THAT IT WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR MORE SIZABLE PRECIPITATION
AND SNOW PRODUCERS. DRIVING FORCE WILL BE A SPIKING POLEWARD
RIDGE IN THE VICINITY OF ALASKA (NEGATIVE EAST PACIFIC OSCILLATION
(-EPO)), DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING ONTO THE WEST COAST (NEGATIVE
PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN PATTERN (-PNA)), AND QUITE NOTABLY, A VERY
IMPRESSIVE SIGNAL FOR A DEEPLY NEGATIVE NORTH ATLANTIC
OSCILLATION (-NAO), MARKED BY CLOSED CONTOUR RIDGING OVER SOUTHERN
GREENLAND ON THE ENSEMBLE MEANS. TYPICALLY, STRONG NEGATIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALIES ONTO THE WEST COAST PORTEND MILDER PACIFIC DRIVEN
PATTERNS. HOWEVER, IN THIS CASE, SHOULD MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BE
ON THE RIGHT TRACK, THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING TO AND NORTH OF
ALASKA WILL SET UP CROSS POLAR FLOW INTO OUR SOURCE REGION AND THE
-NAO WOULD ACT AS A ROADBLOCK FROM SYSTEMS CUTTING VERY FAR
NORTH. SO, IN SUM, THE RELATIVELY ACTIVE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS COULD BECOME QUITE ACTIVE WITH MORE REGULAR PLOWABLE
SNOW THREATS AT LEAST THROUGH THE END OF JANUARY.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 13, 2021 15:51:03 GMT -6
EPO looking good... troughing in the SW US- polar low just west of Hudson Bay. If we don't get anything from this... come on spring. The -NAO/-EPO combo is about as favorable as it gets...if that doesn't produce, I just don't know what will! |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 13, 2021 16:06:31 GMT -6
Some impressive ensemble runs for mid to late next week across the models.
Winter is coming and we should give the SSW credit
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