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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Feb 14, 2021 14:20:57 GMT -6
So is this looking like more Monday for the heavier stuff now? And not tonight??
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 14, 2021 14:22:18 GMT -6
So now the NAM is reverting back to the southeast again? I hate being so close to the cutoff between 5-6 inches and 1-2. you are not close to just 1 or 2. you're fine for near 6 |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 14, 2021 14:24:00 GMT -6
Models ways to far east with the synoptic setup of a southeast ridge and lack of strong nudging high pressure for Wednesday/Thursday. I expect a northwest shift with time. CFS 768 has been very consistent of showing something epic then. Best case scenario we end with 2 feet of snow by Thursday combining all systems, worst case we still get 5-8 with spots of 10". Either way it's winter weather at it's finest. As mentioned before most of this is high ratio stuff Wednesday/Thursday will be wetter close to 10 to 12 to one ratios likely so there will be layering of the snow pack that might actually help it last longer then it otherwise would. Either way we'll likely be melting this stuff through the end of February at least unless a full on torch occurs which is actually looking less likely as we go through time. It will moderate for sure, but nothing crazy warm.
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 14, 2021 14:26:22 GMT -6
from fb nws
Winter Wx Update: There are strong signals that snowfall totals will be higher than previous forecasts. This largely affects southeast and east central MO, as well as southwest IL, where 6-8" now looks likely. We'll have more info to come soon! #mowx #ilwx #stlwx #snow
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 14, 2021 14:27:39 GMT -6
Nice batch of snow streaming up 44
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Post by ElKay23 - Columbia, IL on Feb 14, 2021 14:28:13 GMT -6
What's a minimum dimension for a cardboard box, is like a foot square ok? Concerned with the wind skewing measurements.
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 331 
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Post by bob on Feb 14, 2021 14:28:23 GMT -6
Thanks Belleville hopefully it will come back north.
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Post by dschreib on Feb 14, 2021 14:32:55 GMT -6
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Post by mchafin on Feb 14, 2021 14:33:37 GMT -6
This snow is going to be incredibly difficult to measure.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 14, 2021 14:36:39 GMT -6
Hires nam is historic  |
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 14, 2021 14:38:11 GMT -6
OK, How big of a box, and what do I weigh it down with so it doesnt blow away?
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 14, 2021 14:39:23 GMT -6
Interesting the Hi Res NAM is beefier than the 12km NAM
Its almost always the other way around with those two
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Feb 14, 2021 14:39:48 GMT -6
Hires nam is historic I'll take that. I don't have access to models so I'm going off of u guys currently. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 14, 2021 14:42:06 GMT -6
The snow coming up 44 is nice but it's actually not the first wave in model land.
The models are already underplaying snow development in this super cold airmass.
It takes so little moisture and lift.
We are starting to be looking at 8-14" for 2/3rds of the metro
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 14, 2021 14:43:19 GMT -6
Hires nam is historic I'll take that. I don't have access to models so I'm going off of u guys currently. it drops 15-17" se of 44/64 and 12" between 70/44 its amazing. It has 2" an hour rates in SW IL for 5 hours tomorrow |
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Post by snowjunky on Feb 14, 2021 14:44:06 GMT -6
The snow coming up 44 is nice but it's actually not the first wave in model land. The models are already underplaying snow development in this super cold airmass. It takes so little moisture and lift. We are starting to be looking at 8-14" for 2/3rds of the metro The Friv roller coaster ride is hilarious. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 14, 2021 14:44:17 GMT -6
The snow coming up 44 is nice but it's actually not the first wave in model land. The models are already underplaying snow development in this super cold airmass. It takes so little moisture and lift. We are starting to be looking at 8-14" for 2/3rds of the metro In the next few hours precip will explode around and N And W of Farmington and move NE |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 14, 2021 14:44:46 GMT -6
Yes, NAM is northwest with midweek system but only shows very early stages of it.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 14, 2021 14:45:21 GMT -6
Yes, people might need a bigger box.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 14, 2021 14:46:34 GMT -6
SGF radar really filling in. One it starts it will be ripping for awhile it looks.
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Post by toddatfarmington on Feb 14, 2021 14:47:30 GMT -6
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Post by REB on Feb 14, 2021 14:49:03 GMT -6
I just received a CODE RED winter storm warning from St. Clair County.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 14, 2021 14:49:17 GMT -6
Yes, NAM is northwest with midweek system but only shows very early stages of it. The nam smokes at the end of it's run |
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Post by freezyfree on Feb 14, 2021 14:50:45 GMT -6
I just received a CODE RED winter storm warning from St. Clair County. And we just got our Jefferson County notification. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 14, 2021 14:51:22 GMT -6
And the sound of a thousand checkstands beeping had been heard...  |
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Post by toddatfarmington on Feb 14, 2021 14:52:28 GMT -6
And the sound of a thousand checkstands beeping had been heard... Milk and bread are about to become a scarce commodity |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 14, 2021 14:54:18 GMT -6
A Bread, Milk, Eggs, and Bacon warning is now in effect for all Schnucks, Dierbergs, and Walmart locations in Missouri and Illinois... Effective until 6PM Monday with the key times between now and 12PM Monday. Oh, and last minute Valentine's Day stuff... Like Balloons, Flowers, Wine, and Hand Dipped Strawberries
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 14, 2021 14:57:17 GMT -6
Wicked  |
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Post by dschreib on Feb 14, 2021 14:57:58 GMT -6
That 60 mile drive to work is going to suck this week.
Tilawn - you guys need to get those big blowers they use at the racetracks for snows like these. Mount them on the front of the truck instead of the plow.
Seriously--stay safe. Those 24+ hour days pushing snow suck worse than the 60 mile drive.
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Feb 14, 2021 14:58:30 GMT -6
Flurries have begun
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