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Post by ElKay23 - Columbia, IL on Feb 14, 2021 13:52:23 GMT -6
Schrapnel I believe was the creator of the Friv-O-Meter Where the hell is the FRIV-O-METER? Who had it last? I know, it’s been so long ago since we got to use it. I believe you’re right, but I have a copy.  |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 14, 2021 13:55:08 GMT -6
Through 18 hours the name is much weaker and more strung out than 12z.
It's trying to phase and hopefully gets moving North.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 14, 2021 13:57:30 GMT -6
By hour 21z the system is finally deepening and lifting North.
Huge precipitation shield blow up in NW Arkansas
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Post by TK on Feb 14, 2021 13:57:42 GMT -6
THE 12Z NAM IS INSANE. YES YES YES KABOOM 12-15" FOR BELLEVILLE 0.75" QPF 2014 REDUX I LOVE you Friv! Please marry me? Just catching up on all the posts from last night. Popped my first adult beverage - (one of many) for the next 2 days... |
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Post by landscaper on Feb 14, 2021 13:58:23 GMT -6
Hopefully that gets going, first wave very weak this run , 1-3” by morning
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Post by snowjunky on Feb 14, 2021 13:58:59 GMT -6
Schrapnel I believe was the creator of the Friv-O-Meter I believe you’re right, but I have a copy. That sure is a thing of beauty!! Thank you for making a copy. |
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Post by mosue56 on Feb 14, 2021 13:59:07 GMT -6
Sunshine is gone, clouded up in Festus!
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 14, 2021 13:59:18 GMT -6
By hour 24 upper level trough is negatively tilted
Precip much slower to come North
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 14, 2021 14:00:16 GMT -6
Hopefully that gets going, first wave very weak this run , 1-3” by morning It's really leaving the 70 and North crowd quite low so far. |
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 14, 2021 14:02:47 GMT -6
Yes maybe 1 to 3 in metronon nam. Very dry. However radar looks great right now so could be a bad run hopefully
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 14, 2021 14:02:48 GMT -6
Nam is 50-75 miles SE with all major features
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 14, 2021 14:03:11 GMT -6
Yes maybe 1 to 3 in metronon nam. Very dry. However radar looks great right now so could be a bad run hopefully What? It's much higher than that |
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Post by landscaper on Feb 14, 2021 14:03:34 GMT -6
Definitely a big shift south not even remotely close to the 12z run
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Post by Jeffmw on Feb 14, 2021 14:03:58 GMT -6
So what's the Update for the St. Louis Metro with the Model Runs?
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 14, 2021 14:05:17 GMT -6
May just be a bad run because the features in real life are north of where nam is putting them
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Post by landscaper on Feb 14, 2021 14:06:13 GMT -6
No kaboom here , not good for anyone in st Charles county north and west per this run
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 14, 2021 14:06:21 GMT -6
The NAM is still easily going to be a warning level event for most of the area. Its definitely not a bad run
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 14, 2021 14:08:21 GMT -6
Ya still gets the metro to 6 inches. Sorry guys I jumped too soon. And it could adjust on the oz. Lets also watch the short range models
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 14, 2021 14:09:44 GMT -6
NAM is a bit south..but not bad at all..for everyone
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Post by weatherj on Feb 14, 2021 14:09:50 GMT -6
Could someone please post the 18z NAM map?
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Post by landscaper on Feb 14, 2021 14:09:55 GMT -6
Yes the def zone makes up for the slow start , should be some good snow rates tomorrow afternoon
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 14, 2021 14:10:57 GMT -6
few flurries..sky finally has lower and thicker clouds. Looks like snow
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 14, 2021 14:11:12 GMT -6
Everyone needs to take a deep breath lol. This NAM sounding tomorrow afternoon is some pure arctic fluff stuff  |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 14, 2021 14:13:34 GMT -6
18z NAM  |
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Post by landscaper on Feb 14, 2021 14:14:35 GMT -6
3k NAM looks even better than regular NAM
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 331 
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Post by bob on Feb 14, 2021 14:14:48 GMT -6
Does NAM show anything for the Wednesday system
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 14, 2021 14:15:14 GMT -6
Hi-Res NAM still a beaut for the southeastern quadrant of the area including Saint Clair County, IL Amounts of 9-12" common in that region. Nothing to sneeze at for sure.
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 14, 2021 14:18:16 GMT -6
Hi res is 8 to 10 for st.charles to 10 to 13 for metro east. Looks beautiful
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Feb 14, 2021 14:19:56 GMT -6
So now the NAM is reverting back to the southeast again? I hate being so close to the cutoff between 5-6 inches and 1-2.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 14, 2021 14:20:35 GMT -6
This is one of those systems where we really need to focus on the impacts and not the amounts. You won't be able to tell the difference between 5" or 7" with how much this stuff is going to blow around. I still have no idea exactly how much I got here in Arnold from the 2014 system because there were parts of my yard almost bare and others with 3 foot drifts
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